National Tracking Poll Thread

[Lief 🗽]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.

[Umengus]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.

a obama win will be due to a good democratic turnout= D+3, D+4,...

[Lief 🗽]

No WaPo update today???

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The one tracker I've been secretly watching since they began is Reuters, primarily because they were the ONLY tracker in 2010 to get it right.

[Likely Voter]

Another day of no-mentum, plus no polls from UPI or ABC/WaPo

SaturdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change)

Rand:     Obama +6  (-)  
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)   
Reuters: Obama +2  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +1  (no poll)   
PPP:       TIED      (-)   
ABC:      Romney +1 (no poll)   
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (R+1)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (-)   
  
Average:   Obama +0.1 (-)

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/rasmussen-and-gallup-vs-the-rest.html

...

Here's the Gallup/Rasmussen analysis of the race since September, if you just use those two polling outfits:



Here's the same graph in the same period for all the other polling organizations combined:



In the model with the least smoothing, Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a clear Romney lead since the beginning of September. Obama has never led the polls on that graph since September 1:



In all the other polls, on the same unsmoothed graph, Romney was only ahead from October 6 - 13; and then briefly on October 23.

So you either believe that Romney has held the national lead 100 percent of the time since September 1; or you believe that Obama has had the lead for 86 percent of the time since September 1. Obviously, the two models cannot both be true.

[Likely Voter]

I suspect that the methodology and/or samples feeding into Rasmussen, Gallup AND Rand are off the mark. None of them are currently matching up with state polling and all feel off. Or they are geniuses and have nailed the right view that everyone else missed. We shouldnt ignore them completely but the all seems to have an alternate view of the electorate.

[Yank2133]

Andrew Sullivan is still alive....thought he killed himself after the first debate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Andrew Sullivan is still alive....thought he killed himself after the first debate.

His freakout is the clearest sign that he has become a bona fide Democrat.

[Cliffy]

Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney

[Lief 🗽]

They didn't publish it today for whatever reason. Probably because it's a Saturday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney

Considering that's been the only non-Gallup/Ras tracker to be consistently more friendly for Romney I would suggest not resorting to

[Cliffy]

WaPo tracking will be released early tomorrow (thru Fri), early Monday (thu Sat) then back to 5PM release on Monday (thru Sun) per @jcpolls

[Lief 🗽]

Well that's a strange schedule, but okay.

[Cliffy]

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Romney up 1 in the PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with independents. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.

[dirks]

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Romney up 1 in the PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with independents. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.

Outstanding...seems like Obama's aproval is starting to collapse. Even DDD...ahem "PPP" is starting to lurch int he right direction

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama's approvals have been consistently much lower than the consensus number, in PPP, for what it's worth.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Which is going to be more fun, this tracker thread over the next six days, or the slew of final polls released next Sat-Mon?

[Cliffy]

Which is going to be more fun, this tracker thread over the next six days, or the slew of final polls released next Sat-Mon?

I'll take unskewing the skewed for $1000 Alex.

[Sbane]

Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

Actually RAND should be taken with a huge grain of salt. I think it's more interesting since due to their methodology they are bound to be more stable. But it depends too much on how good their initial sampling was and it can miss last minute changes in the composition of the electorate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RAND is a novelty this season, we'll see how it turns out in the wash.

[Eraserhead]

PV/EC split is becoming more and more likely.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

[Eraserhead]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Eh, watching Republicans suddenly become champions of electoral reform will be pretty hilarious... I kind of want to see it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Yeah, I believe in the end it will be a 1968 like result: an ultra-narrow PV win but a rather comfortable EV win.