National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen (LV):

Romney:  50, u

Obama:  47, +1

[Ty440]

DRUDGE REPORT SHOCK POLL: Obama surging

(insert drudge siren)

Rand Tracking Poll

Obama  51.15 +0.22
Romney 44.24 +0-.24

Developing..........

[Silent Hunter]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Yeah, I believe in the end it will be a 1968 like result: an ultra-narrow PV win but a rather comfortable EV win.

I agree.

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup:

RV
Obama 48 (nc)
Romney 47 (-1)

LV
Romney 50 (-1)
Obama 46 (nc)

Weird that Gallup's registered numbers seem more in line with other polls than their likely voter numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-46 Obama

1% gain for Obama compared with yesterday.

[Yank2133]

Don't you mean 2 point, I thought it was 47-46.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't you mean 2 point, I thought it was 47-46.

No, it was 47-45 yesterday.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, it was 47-45 yesterday, so

Obama 49 (+2)
Romney 46 (+1)

[Eraserhead]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

IBD/TIPP Poll Obama +1.3
Obama 45.4 (-1.2)
Romney 44.1 (-.4)

This could be an understatement of Obama's support.
Obama leads by only 10 among those 18-44, 50-40.  He also only gets 84 percent of the black vote. He's all but guaranteed to get at least 92% of the vote among that demographic, which would translate to about another percentage point or two of support for the President.

[Eraserhead]

These tracking polls probably only have another day or two of being worth anything with Sandy coming...

[Earthling]

Those trackingpolls don't make sense anyway. One day, Obama increases on Rasmussen and Gallup but decreases on Ipsos, like today. And on other days it's completely reversed. These polls are all over the place.

[ZuWo]

Those trackingpolls don't make sense anyway. One day, Obama increases on Rasmussen and Gallup but decreases on Ipsos, like today. And on other days it's completely reversed. These polls are all over the place.

These seemingly random and even contradictory fluctuations (different national tracking polls showing good results for Obama and Romney on the same day) are probably the best indication that the race has stabilized at the moment and there is no clear momentum for any of the two candidates at least on the national level.

[Earthling]

Still, Obama is winning the race by 1 or 2 on some polls and losing the race by 3 or 4 on others. That maybe stable, but it doesn't tell us where the race is.

[Likely Voter]

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +7  (O+1)   [O+5]
Reuters:   Obama +3  (O+1)   [O+2] 
TIPP:      Obama +1  (R+1)   [R+5]   
PPP:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]   
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)     [N/A]   
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (O+1)   [R+1]
Gallup:    Romney +4 (O+1)   [O+3]   

UPI*:      (no poll)   

Average:   Obama +0.3 (O+0.3)    [O+0.7]


*last UPI poll 2 days old (Obama +1) not included in summary or average.

[Cliffy]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

[dirks]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!

[Eraserhead]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!

How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

[dirks]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!

How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

you're still pushing that long debunked myth that affiliation doesn't matter?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder if WaPo is still using the strictest LV screen out there... and also can you confirm D+6 in the actual poll post? Despite the fact that party ID is going to be THE straw man of this election...

Considering your "reporting" on the OH poll was wrong...

Interesting in Ras also, (despite his playing with party weighting), Romney getting 90% of GOPers and Obama getting only 86% of Dems? (I suppose that's an increase from 82%!?!? a couple of days ago)... so considering Obama's going to get about 90% of Democrats... even with his generous weighting, O-R would be... you guessed it, tied.

[Cliffy]

Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

Considering the portion of 'Independents' that were GOPers in 2008, don't get too excited.

[ajb]

Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

It's cute that Republicans think that they can keep Romney's current margin with independents while increasing the share of the electorate that identify as Republicans.

[Oakvale]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!

How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

you're still pushing that long debunked myth that affiliation doesn't matter?

A good example of this is actually... you, on this forum, since your avatar proclaims you're an independent yet you're rather obviously a partisan Republican of the kind that is a dime-a-dozen here.

[Likely Voter]

It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.