National Tracking Poll Thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.

LOL, Sam.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Little Obama 'surge' on RAND continues

Obama 49.56 (+0.46)
Romney 44.94 (-0.40)

Just returning to pre-debate status. The ABC poll showed the same thing after all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

[Landslide Lyndon]

THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN

Ah, Obama didn't go up. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good." 

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.

JJ will need to do much more than that to be taken seriously.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Summarizing all Friday tracking polls (and change from prev)

Reuters Obama+3 (O+1)
RAND Obama +4 (R+2)
Rasmussen  TIE (O+2)
PPP  Obama +1 (O+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
TIPP Obama +2  (O+2)
  
avg  Obama +0.7 (O+0.7)

Note: All polls rounded for apples to apples comparison, avg rounded to 1 decimal place. Reuters poll will be released later today, but that contains data from today so this is summary of polls with data ending yesterday (two days of post debate)

Good job my friend.

[Landslide Lyndon]

One thing is for sure. If Obama's approval on election day is 53% then there is no way he will lose.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1

Weren't they 50-46 yesterday?

Yep.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.

Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

What polls are you talking about? All Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada polls have shown Obama with an edge.

The same polls Dick Morris saw.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It comes down to OHIO. 

That's truly some eye-opening analysis there.  You should contact the network news post haste!

On this site, you need to state the obvious. 

Not that it matters anyway with people like you.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gallup remains the outlier.

And RAND, of course.

RAND isn't included in most polling averages.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 

How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/rasmussen-and-gallup-vs-the-rest.html

...

Here's the Gallup/Rasmussen analysis of the race since September, if you just use those two polling outfits:



Here's the same graph in the same period for all the other polling organizations combined:



In the model with the least smoothing, Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a clear Romney lead since the beginning of September. Obama has never led the polls on that graph since September 1:



In all the other polls, on the same unsmoothed graph, Romney was only ahead from October 6 - 13; and then briefly on October 23.

So you either believe that Romney has held the national lead 100 percent of the time since September 1; or you believe that Obama has had the lead for 86 percent of the time since September 1. Obviously, the two models cannot both be true.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Andrew Sullivan is still alive....thought he killed himself after the first debate.

His freakout is the clearest sign that he has become a bona fide Democrat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Yeah, I believe in the end it will be a 1968 like result: an ultra-narrow PV win but a rather comfortable EV win.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't you mean 2 point, I thought it was 47-46.

No, it was 47-45 yesterday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Bushie is just having a crisis of Moderate Heroism.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Want to bet that Scotty will show Obama inching ahead in the next couple of days so that he can tell after Tuesday that he got right the final result and preserve his reputation?

[Landslide Lyndon]

rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)

It's 49-46.