National Tracking Poll Thread

[pbrower2a]

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.

Not in the least. The electoral map looks much like that of 2008 with President Obama winning or losing with margins in most states similar to those of 2008.  Mitt Romney can win if everything goes right for him... but that requires one of Colorado and Nevada, and each of the following states: Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (At that I am not talking about Arizona or Indiana, an Obama win in either of which indicates that the President has won all swing states and is on the way to 370-380 electoral votes.  Romney needs an appeal that wins every one of those and thus makes such states as Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania close. That will take a strong new appeal that he needs to show.... yesterday.

[pbrower2a]

Romney's favorables are soaring.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-05-14/poll-economy-obama-romney/54958250/1

Since becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney's favorable-unfavorable rating has jumped to 50%-41%, his best ever and in the same neighborhood as Obama's 52%-46% standing. The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign.

In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.

Did anyone expect the disappointed voters for Santorum, Gingrich, or Perry to break toward President Obama? Republicans who might have heard their preachers rail against Mormonism as a horrible heresy now are getting accustomed to the prospect of a Mormon as President.

The 9% difference on economic stewardship is shaky. The Republicans would like us to forget Dubya -- but Romney has nothing to offer except the Bush II agenda without a real-estate boom. It's all tax cuts, gutting of unions, and regulatory relief on behalf of a few plutocrats.  

Don't forget that Mitt Romney is an empty suit on foreign policy. If he tries to run to the Right of President Obama on foreign policy he is easily cast as an extremist.  

[pbrower2a]

Good idea. Hopefully it won't disappear post-DNC.

President Obama is a spellbinding speaker in contrast to Romney. If people tune in at all to Obama -- then Romney is cooked like hamburger patties that fell onto the coals of the outdoor grill and have themselves become coals for all practical purposes.

The Romney bump is quite small -- probably reflecting that people did not tune in en masse to see what Republicans hope is the 45th President of the United States.  If people had been in such deep desire to change the President they would have been watching their only hope for such change.

[pbrower2a]

This is a state poll, but it may cause us to calibrate the effects of any bounce that Mitt Romney got from the debate:


Virginia Survey Results

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Which matters greatly.

Using all names appearing on the ballot for President:

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It is 50-47 for Obama if third-party nominees are not mentioned.

On what matters most:

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Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

...and something of transitory interest

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I know that state polls generally belong elsewhere,  but Virginia is likely close to the US average in its voting. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html

[pbrower2a]

UPI shows Romney 49, Obama 46, if we're talking newspaper polls in general.  That was unchanged. 

From Wiki:

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UPI

It isn't what it used to be -- that's for sure:

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Same source.