National Tracking Poll Thread

[Oakvale]

I'm glad we've largely confined Rasmussen's trolling to this thread.

[Oakvale]

Thank god, the erosion may be stopping. Romney is still the favorite though. I'm dreading PPP's Wisconsin numbers tonight.

Calm down, Lief, we've been here before - Wisconsin was within a point or so after the Ryan pick.

[Oakvale]

The thing is, I'm really not all that sure that any movement for Romney (and he was going to get some anyway) is going to be significant as opposed to a temporary bounce.

[Oakvale]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama - of course any evidence that Romney's bounce is just that as opposed to significant movement is good news.

[Oakvale]

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama

Not necessarily. There have certainly been people here and elsewhere claiming the opposite.

Eh, well there's a few Dems here and there claiming otherwise, but they're not to be taken seriously - I'm not sure how someone could reasonably argue that the debate was anything other than good for Romney - although I suppose the limited evidence we have so far shows that Romney gained more than Obama lost, which is probably relatively good news for Obama in context.

The media narrative has been "Romney won the debate!" - anyone claiming that this is a bad thing for Romney is nothing but a hack and troll.

[Oakvale]

Fellow Obama supporters, I will accept further accolades at a time convenient to you.

[Oakvale]

Umengus and his Umengites ruin every polling thread.

[Oakvale]

Gallup is literally such an insane outlier that either

A) This race is somehow turning into a Romney blowout and only Gallup is noticing.

or

B) Gallup is heading toward irrelevancy.

[Oakvale]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

STOP.

[Oakvale]

Reverse deluge!!!1

[Oakvale]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.

[Oakvale]

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%

"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!

How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

you're still pushing that long debunked myth that affiliation doesn't matter?

A good example of this is actually... you, on this forum, since your avatar proclaims you're an independent yet you're rather obviously a partisan Republican of the kind that is a dime-a-dozen here.

[Oakvale]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

Can't argue with that.

Why is your username "Merry Christmas, America" on October 31st?