National Tracking Poll Thread

[King]

inb4 Krazen and Umengus call this poll a joke because the sample isn't R+20

[King]

Bradley deluge!

[King]

Herman Cain: Strongest Republican Candidate.

[King]

Santorum 45%, Obama 44%
Obama 45%, Paul 42%
Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Santorum's first ever lead over Obama in a national poll! LOL!

This might actually be correct.   Santorum is the only one whose name isn't being thrown into the mud right now (ironic, i know).

[King]

Didn't Scott change his sample to a ridiculous R+5?  Romney +5 is a tie.

[King]

I, for one, welcome our Gallup tracking lords.

[King]

I know what your thinking, but it is actually likely that other parts of the country would break toward Romney more/faster than NC.  This isn't Bush who would distort 'Dixie'/'Tidewater' toward him more/faster.   

You claims have no evidence, but that's not really important.   These two polls have the following:

• Rasmussen -- uses a likely voter sample of R+5 because he believes it will be a strong Republican turnout year, his approval poll currently has Obama underwater -6 with this same sample
• FOX News -- Obama -9 approval in this sample
• In the news, this week Romney sealed the nomination with a Santorum drop out.  He has the "Big Mo'".

Romney + nomination momentum + Obama 7.5 underwater in approval = a 3 point lead.

I'm sure Obama is completely fine with performing this strong in such a scenario.

[King]

With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.

[King]

Well, the election is 6 months away, so of course it's far from over.  It could be +10 either direction and it would be "far from over" simply because it's far from over.

[King]

Rasmussen has Romney up 48-44 again.

Yes, but Obama will be up 53-41 tomorrow and then back to Romney +6 after the first round of the NFL draft gives him a bounce.

[King]

Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.

That assumes the likely voter model should have a strong R tilt ,especially with a generally uncharismatic candidate like Mitt.

[King]

Gallup
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

[King]

I refuse to believe that all these polls showing the race almost tied are junk polls. Something's going on here, because these numbers aren't translating into the state polls. Could it be that Romney is doing better in traditional blue states? (No shot at winning their EVs, but he's just losing by a smaller margin than Republicans typically have lost by in the past?)

I don't think Romney is doing better, per say, Obama hasn't rallied the base yet in his strongholds.   The Republicans are currently going through a "rally behind the nominee" moment in Republican states.  For Democrats, the election really hasn't been on their minds yet.  

A lot of the New England, California and New York, polls, for example, still have double digit "undecided."  We all know that, except for New Hampshire, that will break 9 to 1 for Obama.  It always breaks for the Democrat regardless of the situation. That is what I see in the national polls.  That could account for some of his lag in the national numbers.  In the fact, in the poll krazen posted, Romney is the 90s with his party while Obama is still in the mid-80s.  Both will be in the 90s on election day.

Then, as krazen likes to remind us, the likely voter model is, of course, favorable to the Republicans at the moment.  That's promising for Romney, but again the Democrats have not started a GOTV effort because of the lack of a primary election.  Who is likely to vote in an election six months from now could be a completely different story.

[King]

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-obama-lead-over-romney-narrows-to-3-points

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll


Registered Voters. Of course they ended up with a D+7 electorate.


46%  Democrat Barack Obama
43%  Republican Mitt Romney

Hispanics
Obama 80%
Romney 12%

2004 Exit Poll Hispanics
Kerry 55%
Bush 44%

Not a good poll, but that performance ain't gonna cut it.

[King]

Gallup
Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)

[King]

The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:

Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.

This is a dangerous game you're playing J.J.  You could just accept a 1 point bounce for Romney at his weekend.  Saying this and you run the risk of the DNC going over well and Romney's midweek bounce being Obama +2.

[King]

That pretty little pic is about 2 years old. But of course, you don't want to note that.

Why should he? It's comparing 2010 polling to the 2010 actual results.  How are we supposed to compare 2012 polling to the 2012 results?  We can only look on a firm's history.

Rasmussen has been off in every Presidential and midterm election this century outside of 2004.

I enjoy Rasmussen because of its sheer number of polls and you can still use it to confirm trends, but I don't go to it for a prediction of how a state really looks.

[King]

Gallup

Obama 50% (+1)
Romney 44% (nc)

[King]

You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

Ras is not the only pollster to give a tied race. Answer in november.

It's good business to call this election tied.  The press in September 1984 was calling that election "still close" and polls were being released that showed it that way.  The race was never in doubt.

I wouldn't put it beyond Razzy to be trolling us right now. Before the election his polls will be more or less accurate.

Scotty does favorable Republican numbers so Republicans and FOX will buy the results from him, but then readjusts the weighted model for the final polls so that why he can claim to be accurate, too.  That accuracy seal of approval, though he misfired on it a bit in 2010, makes the next cycle's favorable Republican numbers seem that much more valuable.

[King]

One wonders what, exactly, happened with Gallup's poll.

Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance

[King]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

Over a year of campaigning and a billion dollars spent and we're getting a repeat of 2008.

Romney accidentally stimulated the economy in all the swing states.

[King]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

[King]

Keep in mind folks that a daily shift is not just the addition of a new day but dropping of an old one.  If post debate night was Romney +2 but so was the sample 4 days ago, then they cancel each other out.

[King]

I think the Democrats will get a small bump from this debate, not from swing voters, but Democrats moving from RV to LV.

This debate was about enthusiasm pumping, which Obama's dead performance last week killed what was building from the convention.

[King]

THis is interesting

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So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?

Swing voters are going to have to start making decisions soon.  Numbers should start to stabilize.