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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 309230 times)
sobo
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« on: September 19, 2012, 08:29:51 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 43
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sobo
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2012, 04:32:10 PM »
The RAND methodology seems like it would have problems with figuring out the absolute state of the race as they never reselect their sample. With Gallup, if there is an R or D heavy sample, it'll roll off eventually and you'll see that.

It seems like RAND would be excellent at identifying shifts in the race though. If RAND goes from O+3 to O+5, it must be because people in the sample either changed their vote or changed their likelihood of voting. The poll even shows how many people have changed their mind in the last week if you go to that tab.
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sobo
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2012, 09:46:42 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos Sept 17-21

Obama:  48 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106649960/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-Daily-Election-Tracking-09-21-12
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sobo
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2012, 08:04:55 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos Sept 20-24

Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 43 (+1)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-usa-campaign-poll-idINBRE88N13H20120924
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sobo
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 04:05:51 AM »
RAND 9/24
Obama:  49.71
Romney: 43.47
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sobo
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2012, 04:10:43 AM »
RAND 9/25

Obama:  50.18
Romney: 42.82
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sobo
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2012, 06:25:00 PM »
Rasmussen w/o lean:
Obama:  46 (nc)
Romney: 46 (nc)

Rasmussen w/ lean:
Obama:  48 (+2)
Romney: 48 (nc)

Gallup:
Obama:  50 (nc)
Romney: 44 (nc)

Reuters/Ipsos:
Obama:  49 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)
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sobo
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2012, 04:32:40 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  46 (-1)
Romney: 41 (-1)
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sobo
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2012, 03:31:35 PM »
Rasmussen
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

RAND
Obama:  49.76 (-0.31)
Romney: 44.22 (+0.12)

Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  47 (+1)
Romney: 41 (nc)
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sobo
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 02:38:27 PM »
Obama:  48
Romney: 43

Take it for what it's worth, only 538 people surveyed and it's of registered voters, though Reuters does say that all of the surveys were conducted after the debate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121004
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sobo
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2012, 03:14:52 PM »
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They say that the interviews were conducted after the debate though I'm not sure how they could have done many Wednesday interviews if they were waiting until after the debate to do them. Still, there's no reason to publish this smaller sample poll rather than their tracking poll if they're including old interviews.
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sobo
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2012, 03:35:54 PM »
Here are the topline results.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12047
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sobo
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2012, 02:00:23 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005
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sobo
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2012, 03:28:49 PM »
Per the internals, 75% of the interviews happened after the debates.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12055
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sobo
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2012, 02:11:51 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.
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sobo
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2012, 01:31:05 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2012, 01:33:47 PM by sobo »
IBD/TIPP
Obama:  46.5
Romney: 44.8

So among tracking polls published today, Obama has gained 1 point in Gallup, IBD/TIPP, and PPP. He's gained 2 in Rasmussen. Romney gained 2 in RAND. Reuters/Ipsos is yet to update.

Once RCP updates IBD/TIPP Obama will move into a tie with Romney on their tracker. They don't include PPP's tracker which is kind of inexplicable as they use PPP's state polls.

EDIT: Looks like it pushed him ahead, even without including the PPP poll.
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sobo
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2012, 10:19:47 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2012, 10:26:38 PM by sobo »
PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.
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