National Tracking Poll Thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

Makes perfect sense if your goal is to track changes in voter sentiment without having to worry about changing models mid-election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nate apparently likes their methodology. It's definitely different but I can't say if it's correct.

One definite advantage to it is that since they always poll the same people, it's probably far more accurate that most polls are in keeping track of the relative changes in the electorate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

Hardly. I expect the tracing polls released today will have little if any post-debate sampling, and none of what little there might be will be from the Eastern or Central Time Zones.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98

If those numbers are accurate, then (barring a major Obama gaffe or scandal) Romney is almost certainly done.

RAND's methodology doesn't capture voter intensity well, and it's a seven day rolling average.  We'll need a few more days to see what RAND is showing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

These days you win debates by being rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

Romney won the damn debate. You need to accept that.