National Tracking Poll Thread

[Earthling]

Two Republican pollsters. Wait until the real ones come out with their numbers.

[Earthling]

I am not saying that Romney isn't leading. But I will wait until a different, non-republican pollsters shows the same numbers. Until then, well, it's Fox and Rasmussen. And Rasmussen numbers don't make sense. If Obama is trailing Romney nationally by 4, he should be trailing Romney by at least 6 in North Carolina, and not by 2.

[Earthling]

No, it just shows that Rasmussen is a joke.

[Earthling]

The Republicans destroyed Kerry in September and October with the swift-boat ads. He never recovered from that. I don't see that happining this time.

[Earthling]

Nate Silver agrees with Tender wrt Obama's lead at the moment:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244538584793743361

Romney will be in a very difficult place if those numbers are true. And PPP seems to suggest that Nate Silver is right.

[Earthling]

The unemployment numbers came out on Fridaymorning, so they are probably in the same sample as Obama's acceptance speech from Thursdayevening.

[Earthling]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

[Earthling]

The pollsters will also not start polling at 8:30 AM.

Like I said, most people, not all, but most, will know these numbers by the end of the day. So they will be part of the same sample as Obama's speech. Maybe not entirely, but for the most part. 

And it's true that Gallup is slow. On Gallup the RNC convention is now fully internalized and it doesn't look good for them.

[Earthling]

Will Obama be at 50% tomorrow?

And when will the other pollsters like CNN and PPP come out with their numbers?

[Earthling]

Gallup

Obama: 49% (nc)
Romney: 44 % (-1)

[Earthling]

Obamas approval ratings are still the same.
And he leads Romney in the swing states by 2 now.

[Earthling]

It's way too early to say that. If the situation is like this on October 11, than it will be different.

[Earthling]

That doesn't make it true, J.J. It is still nonsense.

And Romney's reaction to this incident is much worse. Playing politics with the attacks and then being wrong about it as well.

[Earthling]

It's with Republican voters. Rasmussen he.

[Earthling]

No, he talked about an apology, which it wasn't, and pinned it on Obama.

He should have kept his mouth shut and waited a couple of days. Now, it looks like he is dancing on the bodies of the dead diplomats.

He made it political before he knew all the facts. That is just stupid.

[Earthling]

But the Embassy gave out the statement, before they were stormed. It was clearly designed to calm the people down who were outside. Who can blame them?
And then, the statement is not an apology. Just a condemnation of a movie.
But Romney called it an apology and made it appear like this was Obama's take on the situation.


Romney jumped the gun. He was talking too soon. You can expect from a man who wants to be president to wait until he has the entire story.

Like I said, now he looks very insensitive. He doesn't seem to care about the casualties but only about the politics.

[Earthling]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

You are looking at his approval ratings.

MIA is right.

[Earthling]

The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe. The presidential poll is over seven days.

[Earthling]

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.

[Earthling]

Sadly, yes.

[Earthling]

On Rasmussen.

[Earthling]

That can't be right. Rasmussen is telling us that Romney is winning. Ask J.J.

[Earthling]

The words coming from Scott Rasmussen. That is an objective source.

[Earthling]

If Obama's approval is still at 50%, then I think this Romney surge may indeed be ephemeral.

Agreed.

If Obama's approval ratings are on or around 50% on election day it's hard to see him losing this election.

[Earthling]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.