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Author Topic: How many white Democrats will be in the House from the South after 2012?  (Read 2522 times)
Torie
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« on: September 18, 2011, 01:23:44 pm »
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I can count only six for sure, two from NOVA, three from Florida (the Dems might get one or two more depending on what happens to the Alan West seat in redistricting, and whether the heavily but not majority black Corrine Brown seat is dumped and made more white putting in a white Dem), and what the courts do with the Pubbie plan), plus Price in NC.  A somewhat probable 7th seat is the Chandler seat in Kentucky where he would be a favorite. Cooper's fate in Tennessee depends on whether the Pubbies chop Nashville, which I suspect is in the cards. So it looks to me to be more likely than not a grand total of seven, plus a possible 8th or 9th from Florida. Oh, and maybe one more white Dem from Virginia, but I consider that reasonably unlikely.

Oh, and the Doggett thing in Texas. That is a wild card. So say 7.5 seats.

Have I missed anyone? How times have changed since I was a lad!
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 01:28:58 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2011, 01:26:20 pm »
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Add maybe 2 in West Virginia, 2 in Arkansas, maybe a couple in Texas.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2011, 01:31:06 pm »
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Add maybe 2 in West Virginia, 2 in Arkansas, maybe a couple in Texas.

I don't count WV as the South, but OK, but I don't see the Pubbies losing a seat there this time, so add one for WV if you like.  I don't think the Dems will hold the Ark-04 given that Ross is retiring and it's uber GOP now. I don't think Griffin will be defeated in Ark 02, even though the seat is now a couple of points more Dem than it was. Not with Obama at the top of the ticket.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 01:43:09 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2011, 01:56:33 pm »
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I think we have a good chance of beating Oliverio, but all Arkansas seats will go GOP. I also think McIntyre is slightly favored to win in NC, and Shuler shouldn't be counted out just yet. I think Cooper may hold on even if Nashville is split, although he'd not be favored. Barrow, Kissell, and Miller will be gone, as will our two open seats in OK and AR.
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2011, 02:19:56 pm »
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whats worse is that the remaining southern white seats aren't really "southern" if you catch my drift. The Deutch, Wasserman, and Moran districts are mainly made up of jewish democrats who have nothing in common with the old school dixiecrats of yore.
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2011, 05:04:33 pm »
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I can count only six for sure, two from NOVA, three from Florida (the Dems might get one or two more depending on what happens to the Alan West seat in redistricting, and whether the heavily but not majority black Corrine Brown seat is dumped and made more white putting in a white Dem), and what the courts do with the Pubbie plan), plus Price in NC.  A somewhat probable 7th seat is the Chandler seat in Kentucky where he would be a favorite. Cooper's fate in Tennessee depends on whether the Pubbies chop Nashville, which I suspect is in the cards. So it looks to me to be more likely than not a grand total of seven, plus a possible 8th or 9th from Florida. Oh, and maybe one more white Dem from Virginia, but I consider that reasonably unlikely.

Oh, and the Doggett thing in Texas. That is a wild card. So say 7.5 seats.

Have I missed anyone? How times have changed since I was a lad!

Louisville.
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2011, 05:09:31 pm »
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Don't forget Steve Cohen.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2011, 05:10:05 pm »
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Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

And yes Cohen, but he represents a very black CD, so he's a black Jew.  Tongue   But yes indeed.
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2011, 12:25:40 am »
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Don't forget Steve Cohen.

Maybe Steve Cohen.
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2011, 09:07:05 am »
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Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

But if you don't include Southern WV, then you shouldn't include Louisville.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2011, 12:04:53 pm »
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Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

But if you don't include Southern WV, then you shouldn't include Louisville.

That is more or less true. It's arbitrary.  Let's add Missouri too.  But's let's not add Maryland. Tongue

KY, WV, and to a lesser extent Missouri, are hybrid states. There is not much of the South left in Maryland except the Eastern shore.
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2011, 12:10:28 pm »
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Indeed I did miss Louisville!  Thanks.

But if you don't include Southern WV, then you shouldn't include Louisville.

That is more or less true. It's arbitrary.  Let's add Missouri too.  But's let's not add Maryland. Tongue

KY, WV, and to a lesser extent Missouri, are hybrid states. There is not much of the South left in Maryland except the Eastern shore.

You could argue that where's there large numbers of (American) Blacks, there an element of the South.
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2011, 02:18:12 pm »
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Yes, but generally we don't consider Detroit part of the South. Smiley  It's is kind of a white thing really come to think of it. They seem to define the reach of the South's diaspora. Anyway, the redneck riviera  has almost no blacks, and it is Southern in very good standing. So there!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 02:20:23 pm by Torie »Logged

Аverros Nix
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2011, 08:37:25 pm »
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The blue dogs are done, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Dems picked up some seats in suburban Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina (though the redistricting plan NC is not D-friendly).

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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2012, 08:41:35 pm »
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1 or zilch
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2012, 12:07:15 am »
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As few as seven, as many as thirteen.

ALABAMA: zero

ARKANSAS: zero (they showed up about twenty years late to their region's partisan realignment)

FLORIDA: 1 to 3
Ted Deutch and maybe a couple of others if Dems pick up any new seats or defeat any GOP freshmen (David Rivera and Allen West come to mind)

GEORGIA: zero
This is the last we will see of John Barrow

LOUISIANA: zero

MISSISSIPPI: zero

NORTH CAROLINA: 1-3
They got completely screwed in redistricting. David Price will likely be back, and perhaps Larry Kissell and/or Brad Miller. Aren't the rest retiring?

SOUTH CAROLINA: zero

TENNESSEE: two
Steve Cohen should be back. If Jim Cooper could survive 2010, he can survive 2012. I'm not aware of any significant changes in their state's redistricting.

TEXAS: 1-2
Gene Green is in a safe district (that is, ironically, mostly Hispanic). Lloyd Doggett is out of the fire and back in the frying pan.

VIRGINIA: 2-3
Jim Moran and Gerry Connolly. One of the GOP freshmen in NoVa could be picked off as well, and that will probably depend on the Obama effect.




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« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2012, 12:55:00 am »
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NORTH CAROLINA: 1-3
They got completely screwed in redistricting. David Price will likely be back, and perhaps Larry Kissell and/or Brad Miller. Aren't the rest retiring?


Price is guaranteed to return. McIntyre is a slight favorite and Kissell has a tough fight. Miller is retiring.
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2012, 01:12:05 am »
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Do you not consider Kentucky or West Virginia to be southern?
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NE Caretaker Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2012, 03:53:24 am »
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Do you not consider Kentucky or West Virginia to be southern?

From the Georgian perspective:



And Barrow's gone. But in gutting Barrow like they did, they've opened Kingston up to some future vulnerability. Kingston's in a district where Republicans are now just a little less than 55% of the voting bloc. A good candidate could take the seat. Coastal Georgia's Republicans are more moderate, northern types. The interior is all Dixie, though.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2012, 03:55:21 am by Mittosis »Logged
SJoyce
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2012, 07:28:25 am »
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Do you not consider Kentucky or West Virginia to be southern?

From the Georgian perspective:



And Barrow's gone. But in gutting Barrow like they did, they've opened Kingston up to some future vulnerability. Kingston's in a district where Republicans are now just a little less than 55% of the voting bloc. A good candidate could take the seat. Coastal Georgia's Republicans are more moderate, northern types. The interior is all Dixie, though.

I can assure you that, having been to all three, North Florida/FL Panhandle is at least as southern as, say, Tennessee or Kentucky. The South ends at around I-4; north of that, it's definitely South at least, possibly Deep, and south of that, it's really not.
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« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2012, 08:49:58 am »
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Do you not consider Kentucky or West Virginia to be southern?

From the Georgian perspective:



And Barrow's gone. But in gutting Barrow like they did, they've opened Kingston up to some future vulnerability. Kingston's in a district where Republicans are now just a little less than 55% of the voting bloc. A good candidate could take the seat. Coastal Georgia's Republicans are more moderate, northern types. The interior is all Dixie, though.

I can assure you that, having been to all three, North Florida/FL Panhandle is at least as southern as, say, Tennessee or Kentucky. The South ends at around I-4; north of that, it's definitely South at least, possibly Deep, and south of that, it's really not.
There are pockets of the North- Gainesville which is about 15 min east of my house (I am just east of Newberry) is very liberal due to the school over there. Trenton (about 30 min west of me) is as rural and conservative as it gets- one traffic light in the whole county

But you're right that North Florida is mostly very culturally Southern
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« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2012, 12:01:32 pm »
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As few as seven, as many as thirteen.This is the last we will see of John Barrow.



TENNESSEE: two
Steve Cohen should be back. If Jim Cooper could survive 2010, he can survive 2012. I'm not aware of any significant changes in their state's redistricting.


Cooper's district is mainly based in Nashville though and Nashville is liberal politically I have heard. Maybe because all those country music superstars live there.
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2012, 12:37:35 pm »
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As few as seven, as many as thirteen.This is the last we will see of John Barrow.



TENNESSEE: two
Steve Cohen should be back. If Jim Cooper could survive 2010, he can survive 2012. I'm not aware of any significant changes in their state's redistricting.


Cooper's district is mainly based in Nashville though and Nashville is liberal politically I have heard. Maybe because all those country music superstars live there.
Yes, an entire city's political dynamic is set by dozen or so musicians Roll Eyes
In any case, I suspect, there will be about as many Southern white Dems as there will be Northeastern Republicans.
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2012, 01:37:29 pm »
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For all intensive purposes, North Florida is Dixie. At a state level, though, Florida isn't really a full-fledged Southern state.
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« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2012, 01:41:19 pm »
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For all intensive purposes, North Florida is Dixie. At a state level, though, Florida isn't really a full-fledged Southern state.

"Intents and purposes."
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