Is Evan Bayh really the most electable Democrat?

[dazzleman]

I think Warner would be better than Bayh, but I think there's as much of a chance of the Democrats nominating them as there is of the Republicans nominating Pataki.

[© tweed]

I think Warner would be better than Bayh, but I think there's as much of a chance of the Democrats nominating them as there is of the Republicans nominating Pataki.

No, he wouldn't.  He has just one term as governor as experience.  He wouldn't win a general election because the attack would be 'this man has no foreign policy experience in a post 9-11 world'.  And it would be a fair attack.

Bayh is better suited to be president in 2008.  Warner likely would be his VP, although that's a ticket that runs the risk of scareing off the Naderites yet again.

[TomC]

Definitely -though I wonder whether either he or Mark Warner will make it through the primaries relatively unscathed, what with the newly resurgent left wing of the Democratic Party now reasserting its influence over the party. 

Yeah, their candidate Dean really trounced the others in the primary.

The 2008 primaries will be Hillary Clinton vs. someone else. If Dems are afraid of Hillary Clinton being their nominee because she isn't very electable, they will turn to someone else. The questions are who will that someone else be? and how will they bring Hillary down? The argument that Hillary is too liberal isn't the way to go. It's not really that true. But if it becomes a populist vs. insider type race, Bayh and Warner have a shot.

Clinton was ind of lucky in 1992 that he had Paul Tsongas as an opponent. On economic issues, Clinton seemed like the liberal and could run to the left of Tsongas, but then remind voters for the general that he was more moderate on social and military issues. In 2004, Kerry, who on paper isn't that much more to the right of Dean, was chosen because he was seen as more electable with the military service and Dean spouting anti war rhetoric. Also, Kerry was pro-free trade and was more moderate than Dean on how much of the tax cut to keep.

So clearly Iowa voters and other early primary voters were focused on electability. Kerry was the electable alternative to Dean. After losing 2004 with a northeastern liberal (as opposed to a McGovern-like antiwar liberal) I don't see that these primary voters are going to all of a sudden start buying the bogus argument that Kerry (and Mondale and Dukakis) weren't liberal enough to win. I mean, where is the proof of this argument? All indications point the opposite direction. When the Dems had a stronhold on the electorate from 33 to 68 (ending with the 68 election), the Republicans had to nominate moderates to win or get anywhere. The moderate Eisenhower was the only Republican to win. People didn't even know if he was a Dem or Repub until he announced. And Nixon, except for foreign policy, was pretty appeasing to liberal economic policy. The main true conservative to run was Goldwater, clearly not a moderate. And how did his "extremism" argument work on the public? Miserably. Well, the Dems are out of power right now. The only was to win is to appeal to the center. Perhaps Kerry got a lot closer than Mondale and Dukakis, signaling a coming realignment, but he lost, so we aren't there yet.

So someone who thinks Republican Lite as they call it, doesn't help a candidate's electability, offer up some proof, because indicators I see point to the opposite being true.

[memphis]

If Bayh could carry Indiana's 11 electoral votes and Ohio's 20 votes, it would be hard to see how the Dems could lose. The main reason Kerry lost the election is that he was destroyed in Western Ohio, which is adjacent to Indiana. Check out the vote totals for the counties out there. The voting behavior is similar to that of Wyoming and Utah! Anybody know why, by the way?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Bayh could carry Indiana's 11 electoral votes and Ohio's 20 votes, it would be hard to see how the Dems could lose. The main reason Kerry lost the election is that he was destroyed in Western Ohio, which is adjacent to Indiana. Check out the vote totals for the counties out there. The voting behavior is similar to that of Wyoming and Utah! Anybody know why, by the way?

One idea is a ticket with Feingold and Bayh, and have them concentrate on the Great Lakes. They've basically won if they win the swing states of MN, WI, IA, MI, OH, and PA.

Substitute NH for IA if that makes it more likely. Maybe a trip or two to OR. Everything else looks pretty safe.

[The Dowager Mod]

Bayh has loser written all over him.

[phk]

Richardson is better than Bayh.

[memphis]

Bayh has loser written all over him.

Please be more specific for those of us who don't know much about him.

[The Dowager Mod]

Bayh has loser written all over him.

Please be more specific for those of us who don't know much about him.

Name recognition,party support,funding,etc.

[phk]

Anybody feel the same way now?

[Sasquatch]

Republican lite loses to Republicans.

Well said.

If Evan Bayh had a shot, he would have lasted more than a week in the primary campaign.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Bayh = centrist governor just like Bill Clinton.

If he would have been the nominee for 2008, he would have walked away with this election, no question about it.     

And don't pay attention to the leftist wingnuts who say he can't "never win".   These are the same exact people who have us McGovern and opposed Bill Clinton in 1992 as "too conservative" so what do they know?

[The Hack Hater]

Yeah, both him and Mark Warner. In fact, I think it's kind of weird why this guy didn't think of Warner first.

[GMantis]

He'd be unlikey to win the nomination, which is why he didn't run.

[Person Man]

Well, if we get wiped out in 2008, who would be good for us in 2o12?

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Well, if we get wiped out in 2008, who would be good for us in 2o12?

A centrist governor.

[Person Man]

Well, if we get wiped out in 2008, who would be good for us in 2o12?

A centrist governor.

Would you vote for someone like that?

[Beet]

Mark Warner, Evan Bayh or Brad Henry.

[Person Man]

Mark Warner, Evan Bayh or Brad Henry.

Warner or Henry will probably do it then.