What-if 1988: Perot runs as an independent!

[defe07]

OK, let's assume that Ross Perot decides to run for President in 1988 as an independent. He faces Bush/Quayle and Dukakis/Bentsen. He chooses IL Senator Paul Simon as his running mate.

What would a map look like? EV totals and Popular vote?

[Liberalrocks]

Ok I will attempt to be the first here. I doubt Perot would have pulled the same numbers back in 1988 as he did in 1992. First off we were not in a recession in 1988 the economy was fairly good and not the number 1 issue of the day. If he ran an anti washington individual freedom campaign he may have been lucky enough to pull half of his 1992 national total for around 10% of the popular vote (I still doubt he would pull any media attention in 1988- again no economic issue to run on)

So on the above map I kept both the Republican and Democratic winning margins above 30%. Perot is still a spoiler and pulls more republican voters then democratic ones. Here is a Dukakis victory. Before your eyes grow big at South Dakota-remember he polled 46% in a two way race against Bush in both SD and MT. Likely due to the farm crisis so a Perot spoiler could easily give him both states.

Dukakis/Bentsen 271      45%  
Bush Quayle        267      45%
Perot Simon          0            9%
Others                               1%                              

[King]

1988 was not the time for Perot.  His (correct) claims about Reaganomics would not have gained any ground then nor would he have been able to angle against a New Deal dem like Dukakis as a opposed a pro-NAFTA centrist like Clinton.