Predict Q3 fundraising numbers

[Tender Branson]

50-60 Mio. - Obama

25 Mio. - Romney
15 Mio. - Perry
  8 Mio. - Huntsman
  7 Mio. - Bachmann
  6 Mio. - Paul
  2 Mio. - Cain
  2 Mio. - Gingrich
  1 Mio. - Santorum

Or something like this ...

[Wonkish1]

Do you count the DNC Obama sub account or not? Clearly Obama's numbers are amazing when you count those numbers too.

Without an answer on whether the sub account is included then the guesses are meaningless.

[Saxwsylvania]

Early reports say Romney less than $10 mil., Perry more than $10 mil.  Could just be expectations gaming of course.

[Wonkish1]

Alright,

Obama      $48mil               -----Obama's combined total including his joint account with the DNC

Perry          $18mil
Romney      $16mi
Paul            $8mil
Bachmann  $6mil
Hunstman  $5mil
Gingrich      $4mil
Cain           $3.5mil
Santorum   $1.5
Johnson     $.5mil

[Tender Branson]

Do you count the DNC Obama sub account or not? Clearly Obama's numbers are amazing when you count those numbers too.

Without an answer on whether the sub account is included then the guesses are meaningless.

Of course I count this as well. It's not raised by the DNC, but by Obama himself (+ Joe/Michelle).

[Wonkish1]

Yeah but then the donor can't contribute to DNC's general account.

Also it isn't surprising that Obama would way out raise the GOP candidates when his maximum limit under the joint account is 8 times larger than the limit that can be donated to GOP candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Jim Messina says about 55 million $ were raised this quarter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/us/politics/obama-addresses-linkedin-forum-in-california.html

[Averroës Nix]

Revised prediction:

>50 - Obama

15 - Romney
12 - Perry
7 - Paul
6 - Huntsman
5 - Cain
3 - Gingrich
3 - Bachmann
<1 - Santorum
<1 - Johnson (Karger beat him in Q2!)

[Wonkish1]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record  I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign).

Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him.

Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise.

They rest. Does not matter.

[Wonkish1]

Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what
you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record  I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign).

Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him.

Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise.

They rest. Does not matter.

You've got your OFA and DNC spiel wrong. OFA is the DNC account. Its the name of the DNC account that segregates Obama money from the rest of the DNC. It is also the account that is going to have a lot more than Obama's regular account since the DNC can collect higher contribution numbers.

And many professional Dems at the DNC aren't happy about OFA merging with the DNC for this election and running around treating the DNC staff like crap.

[Averroës Nix]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.)

EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely.

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what
you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record  I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign).

Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him.

Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise.

They rest. Does not matter.

You've got your OFA and DNC spiel wrong. OFA is the DNC account. Its the name of the DNC account that segregates Obama money from the rest of the DNC. It is also the account that is going to have a lot more than Obama's regular account since the DNC can collect higher contribution numbers.

And many professional Dems at the DNC aren't happy about OFA merging with the DNC for this election and running around treating the DNC staff like crap.

I am correct. I would post the links but as a newbie I can't post links.  OFA is Obama for America, the campaigns main account.  Obama Victory fund 2012 is the joint fundraising account with the DNC.  That is  the campaign account that parcels out the big money contributions to the OFA and the DNC (source FEC) . Even with lower limits OFA is still the larger account because it has a much larger number of contributors.

[Wonkish1]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.)

EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely.

Huntsman's is cumulative by default, date of entry. That is supposedly why he's at $4 million. Keep in mind that if the same was true for candidate even like Cain or Gingrich they would likely be around $5-8 cumulatively. Some article I read said that Huntsman entered in some grace period or something before the end of Q2 and was able to delay reporting. So he's sitting on something like a whole Q plus maybe 2-4 more weeks.

[Averroës Nix]

Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.

Oh and I think I'll revise:
Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above
Add 1.5 to Cain
and
1 million to Newt

I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.)

EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely.

Huntsman's is cumulative by default, date of entry. That is supposedly why he's at $4 million. Keep in mind that if the same was true for candidate even like Cain or Gingrich they would likely be around $5-8 cumulatively. Some article I read said that Huntsman entered in some grace period or something before the end of Q2 and was able to delay reporting. So he's sitting on something like a whole Q plus maybe 2-4 more weeks.

I know that nothing else would make sense if this were cumulative, but I hadn't realized that Huntsman didn't actually file for Q2. Too much confusion.

[Wonkish1]

Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!

[Minnesota Mike]

Boston Globe reports Romney will raise between $11-13 mill this quarter.  (as newbie I can't post the link, you can google it if you want).


That is really a poor performance for the supposed GOP frontrunner IMO.

[Simfan34]

Campaign emails mention a Friday deadline.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!

what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal?

[The Mikado]

Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter.  You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money.

[Simfan34]

Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter.  You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money.

That does not appear to be happening.

Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!

what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal?

He's at 10% in NH.

[Wonkish1]

Looks like Romney closed at only $13 million. His most disappointing Q of this year and in 08.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter.  You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money.

That does not appear to be happening.

Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!

what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal?

He's at 10% in NH.

but they havent voted yet

[Averroës Nix]

What we know so far, and what we guessed:

Romney - 13-14

A. Nix  - 15
A-Bob - 15
Wonkish1 - 16
M. Mike - 19
T. Branson - 25

Paul - >5, 8 "within reach"

T. Branson - 6
A-Bob - 6.5
A. Nix - 7
Wonkish - 8

Santorum - <1

A. Nix - <1
T. Branson - 1
A-Bob - 1
Wonkish1 - 1.5

Perry - around 10

A-Bob - 11.5
A. Nix - 12
T. Branson - 15
Wonkish - 18
M. Mike - 18

Cain - >2

T. Branson - 2
Wonkish - 5
A. Nix - 5
A-Bob - 3.5

Gingrich - ?

T. Branson - 2
A-Bob - 2
A. Nix - 3
Wonkish - 5

Bachmann - ?

A. Nix - 3
A-Bob - 4
Wonkish - 6
T. Branson - 7

Johnson - ?

Wonkish - .5
A. Nix - <1

Huntsman - ?

A-Bob - 2.5
Wonkish - 5
A. Nix - 6
T. Branson - 8

Obama - ?

Wonkish - 48
A. Nix - >50
T. Branson - 50-60
A-Bob - 57
M. Mike - 60


I'll continue to edit this post as more information comes in from the "post Q3 fundraising" thread.

[Wonkish1]

I may have done well so far, but I know I'm about to get beat down big time on Newt's numbers. They're going to be much closer to like 2-3 mil. Maybe 4.

Also the vague words I'm hearing out of the Bachmann camp show that she actually might be closer to 3-4 instead of 6 mil.