Who loses and who wins in 2010 Congressional redistricting compared to 2000?
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Who loses and who wins in 2010 Congressional redistricting compared to 2000?
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Poll
Question: Compared to the 2000 round of redistricting, 2010's will:
#1
have more Democratic seats
 
#2
have more Republican seats
 
#3
maintain the existing number of D/R seats
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: Who loses and who wins in 2010 Congressional redistricting compared to 2000?  (Read 1726 times)
greenforest32
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« on: September 20, 2011, 05:59:58 AM »
« edited: September 20, 2011, 06:06:23 AM by greenforest32 »

I know redistricting won't be over for many months (and legal challenges) but what do you predict overall compared to the last round of redistricting?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2011, 10:57:26 PM »

Democrats sure picked a great year to mess up.  Had Democrats had a decent year in 2010, they could have made it so the only states Republicans controlled were Tennessee, Utah, and Texas while Democrats controlled New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and maybe even Virginia, and Michigan.  Obama really screwed the Democrats at the worst possible time. 
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2011, 11:01:04 PM »

Democrats sure picked a great year to mess up.  Had Democrats had a decent year in 2010, they could have made it so the only states Republicans controlled were Tennessee, Utah, and Texas while Democrats controlled New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and maybe even Virginia, and Michigan.  Obama really screwed the Democrats at the worst possible time. 

Ohio would have been interesting at best for the Democrats because after drawing a VRA seat in Cleveland it's virtually impossible to get more than 3-4 other seats that are reliably Democratic. The state is naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans. I've tried to draw a Democratic gerrymander a couple times and it's really hard.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2011, 11:14:10 PM »

Democrats sure picked a great year to mess up.  Had Democrats had a decent year in 2010, they could have made it so the only states Republicans controlled were Tennessee, Utah, and Texas while Democrats controlled New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and maybe even Virginia, and Michigan.  Obama really screwed the Democrats at the worst possible time. 

Ohio would have been interesting at best for the Democrats because after drawing a VRA seat in Cleveland it's virtually impossible to get more than 3-4 other seats that are reliably Democratic. The state is naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans. I've tried to draw a Democratic gerrymander a couple times and it's really hard.

If Democrats had a say in the map, the 1st district would have been kept competitive and the vote sink in Columbus would have been about 60-40 Democratic rather than 67-33 Dem. 
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2011, 11:35:04 PM »

Democrats sure picked a great year to mess up.  Had Democrats had a decent year in 2010, they could have made it so the only states Republicans controlled were Tennessee, Utah, and Texas while Democrats controlled New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and maybe even Virginia, and Michigan.  Obama really screwed the Democrats at the worst possible time. 

Ohio would have been interesting at best for the Democrats because after drawing a VRA seat in Cleveland it's virtually impossible to get more than 3-4 other seats that are reliably Democratic. The state is naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans. I've tried to draw a Democratic gerrymander a couple times and it's really hard.

If Democrats had a say in the map, the 1st district would have been kept competitive and the vote sink in Columbus would have been about 60-40 Democratic rather than 67-33 Dem. 

If you keep the Columbus CD all in the City of Columbus, respecting jurisdictional lines, it becomes a Dem vote sink. In that sense, it is a "natural" Dem vote sink. I think that is reasonable.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2011, 08:38:51 AM »

Democrats sure picked a great year to mess up.  Had Democrats had a decent year in 2010, they could have made it so the only states Republicans controlled were Tennessee, Utah, and Texas while Democrats controlled New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and maybe even Virginia, and Michigan.  Obama really screwed the Democrats at the worst possible time. 

Ohio would have been interesting at best for the Democrats because after drawing a VRA seat in Cleveland it's virtually impossible to get more than 3-4 other seats that are reliably Democratic. The state is naturally gerrymandered for the Republicans. I've tried to draw a Democratic gerrymander a couple times and it's really hard.

It can be done though, I've drawn solid map that would reduce the Republican delegation to (depending on who wins primaries) Boehner, Schmidt/Austria (Austria favored), Jordan/Latta (Jordan favored), and Renecci/Gibbs/Tiberi (any of them could win though Renecci is slightly favored).  It is pretty ugly though.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2011, 12:13:58 AM »

I would agree that its more difficult to draw a Dem gerrymander in Ohio that would be as good (or bad) as the map that just passed for the GOP in the state.  However, it is possible to make several more competitive seats that would be winnable by moderate Democrats.  I think most Ohio Democrats realize that even within their own ranks they are slightly to the right of the national party.  Given a more balanced map, I think you could see 10-12 Democrats in a 2006/08 style election and perhaps a low of 3-5 in a year like 2010.  I think that's a risk enough Democrats would be willing to take to secure more competition in Ohio but perhaps I'm overestimating them.
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