TX: Public Policy Polling: Perry only leads Obama by single digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-09-19

Summary: D: 44%, R: 51%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Ron Paul......................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 15%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 51%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

[Eraserhead]

Uh, wow.

[Umengus]

in the last PPP texas poll (june), obama was leading perry by 2...

http://gregsopinion.com/?p=12112

Perry surges ! 

And Mcain won by 11 in 2008.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

[Umengus]

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

bad polling IMO...

With PPP, only the last poll is correct...

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

John McCain won Texas by about 12% in 2008. Are Texas' demographics changing that fast?


Still, if Rick Perry can win Texas only by a single-digit margin, then he is in bad shape for a Republican nominee, because he would be winning by less than the usual margin for a Favorite Son.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

bad polling IMO...

With PPP, only the last poll is correct...

Texas is such a large state you have to look at each region and try to figure out what is going on.  Those numbers I agree are probably more on the favorable side for the Democrats, but every year that goes by the Hispanic vote becomes a larger proportion of the overall electorate.

Even though Texas has been a minority-majority state for a few years now as of 2010 census it was still a white-majority voting state, i.e. people age 18 and over, albeit by a very small margin

[Oakvale]

Interesting. PPP notes that Obama's doing better with Hispanics than he did in '08, which is presumably why he's improving/matching his performance overall.

Obviously, Obama's not going to win Texas unless the GOP nominates a clown (I mean, uh, one of the clown-ier clowns) but all that crap people talk about demographic trends making Texas competitive in ten years or whatever seems to be holding up, slightly.

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

bad polling IMO...

With PPP, only the last poll is correct...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Texas is basically a test of "How Republican Are You?".

Independents are fairly under-represented, and thus Obama soundly beating every Republican (Perry by especially large margins) except Paul with indies doesn't make too much of a difference. The Republicans leading Obama have especially high support amongst fellow Republicans (Except maybe Paul, who makes up the deficit with the independent bonus and crossover voters)

[Penelope]

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

bad polling IMO...

With PPP, only the last poll is correct...

"I disagree with this poll, it's bad polling."

[Keystone Phil]

I remember when certain people told me that Perry wouldn't be leading Obama in Texas polling...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I remember when certain people told me that Perry wouldn't be leading Obama in Texas polling...

They were clearly demented... considering he was tied with Palin... for Perry to not lead Obama would be pretty stupid.

[Devils30]

This poll shouldn't make Perry supporters feel any better, of course he was going to win Texas. A 7 point lead there looks like an 7-10 point national victory for Obama though.

[redcommander]

I should warn Libs not to get their hopes up of winning Texas. Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007, and Giuliani was even leading in certain New York head to head matchups. We all know how those two states turned out for the GOP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

TX is an overreach for the Dems ... don't waste the money or the time.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007

Would you post a poll that shows that?  That's very interesting.

Also, no, Democrats are not counting on 2012 as a great state for us.  Is it impossible?  Of course not, but highly unlikely to trend our way this time around.  Still, in the next few elections, it will likely become a swing state.

[redcommander]

Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007

Would you post a poll that shows that?  That's very interesting.

Also, no, Democrats are not counting on 2012 as a great state for us.  Is it impossible?  Of course not, but highly unlikely to trend our way this time around.  Still, in the next few elections, it will likely become a swing state.

Here's one from May 2008 that shows Obama leading McCain 47-40, and Clinton leading McCain 43-40%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/california-poll.html

SurveyUSA had a bunch in 2007 too.

[King]

Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007

Would you post a poll that shows that?  That's very interesting.

Also, no, Democrats are not counting on 2012 as a great state for us.  Is it impossible?  Of course not, but highly unlikely to trend our way this time around.  Still, in the next few elections, it will likely become a swing state.

Here's one from May 2008 that shows Obama leading McCain 47-40, and Clinton leading McCain 43-40%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/california-poll.html

SurveyUSA had a bunch in 2007 too.

That was before McCain sold out in a feeble attempt to rally the base.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007

Would you post a poll that shows that?  That's very interesting.

Also, no, Democrats are not counting on 2012 as a great state for us.  Is it impossible?  Of course not, but highly unlikely to trend our way this time around.  Still, in the next few elections, it will likely become a swing state.

Here's one from May 2008 that shows Obama leading McCain 47-40, and Clinton leading McCain 43-40%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/california-poll.html

SurveyUSA had a bunch in 2007 too.

That is a surprise, considering how Obama trounced McCain in 2008, and how the Republicans ended up losing territory in the midterms.

[redcommander]

Remember McCain was within the margin of error against Obama in California in 2007

Would you post a poll that shows that?  That's very interesting.

Also, no, Democrats are not counting on 2012 as a great state for us.  Is it impossible?  Of course not, but highly unlikely to trend our way this time around.  Still, in the next few elections, it will likely become a swing state.

Here's one from May 2008 that shows Obama leading McCain 47-40, and Clinton leading McCain 43-40%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/california-poll.html

SurveyUSA had a bunch in 2007 too.

That is a surprise, considering how Obama trounced McCain in 2008, and how the Republicans ended up losing territory in the midterms.

McCain was actually a pretty good fit for California. That problem was Democrats quickly united once Hillary endorsed Obama, and the economy tanked.

[greenforest32]

Lots of shifts going on in the state.  Although I don't expect Obama to win Texas I think the margin will be closer than 2008.  How close it is relative to the national vote will indicate how much longer the GOP can count on Texas as a safe R state

[memphis]

Nobody thinks that Obama will win TX.  The point is that Perry isn't blowing Obama out of the water. It shows what a joke Perry is.

[timothyinMD]

This poll's laughable.  Obama will be lucky to get 41% in Texas this time

[pbrower2a]

This poll's laughable.  Obama will be lucky to get 41% in Texas this time

President Obama will likely do better in Texas in 2012 than in 2008 ... probably getting 46% or so of the vote.  That is far from enough to win except if the Right is splintered with a third-party or Independent challenge to the Republican nominee. If the President wins Texas in a 46-35-19 split then he has a Reagan-like landslide in the electoral vote anyway.

Winning 38 electoral votes may not be President Obama's objective. The state has an open Senate seat and a raft of available Congressional seats, mostly in urban areas and the Rio Grande Valley (don't double-count El Paso), that have shaky Republican incumbents. If the Democrats can exploit the appeal of President Obama in the right places, then they can make a big difference in 2013 with Congress -- far more than the difference between 350 and 390 electoral votes.

How badly (relatively) Rick Perry does in contrast to Dubya (who was Governor) and  John McCain (who had no ties to Texas) shows how weak the Republican position is getting in Texas.

The Hispanic vote is growing rapidly in Texas, and it is decidedly Democratic. Maybe not as Democratic as in Colorado, but that may be a question more of organization than of attitudes.   

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not sure why this poll is a surprise to anyone. Perry usually get something like 55% of the vote even on his best elections with the most favorable GOP environment. I expect he'd get 54-55% or so in a general election with Obama getting 44-45%.