Homicide data for 2010

[Tender Branson]

The FBI has released new homicide data this week. Here's a chart I made and coloring the states by death penalty status:



Red = state has executed someone this year
Light Red = state has executed someone in the past 10 years

Green = state has death penalty statute, but has not executed someone for at least 10 years
Lime Green = state does not have the death penalty

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry TB, but, your data is incorrectly labeled (among other things).

Actually, what you are referencing is "murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" as determined by law enforcement agencies (not courts).

Also, there are a number of factors which impact the rates.

[Jacobtm]

Obviously the states with low homicide rates have simply executed all the murderers already. Give those states with high homicide rates just a few more years to wipe themselves clean of murderers then they'll be OK.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is about what I would expect: the states with more murders are more likely to have used the death penalty recently. Of course, this is an area where the correlation != causation issue can creep into our sense of what's actually going on very easily.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

basically, it's a chart of minority population rates

[bullmoose88]

basically, it's a chart of minority population rates

Thats one way of putting it.  % Urban is another.  I'm sure theres a decent correlation between population and homicide.

You could also argue the unprovable counterfactual.  Ie.  If you thought Texas/Georgia/insert DP state here had a high homicide rate now...just imagine if they abolished the DP.  OR you think New Mexico's homicide rate is low now, just imagine how much closer to zero they'd get with the DP!


I'm not big on the death penalty, but I'm fairly certain other variables (some easy to see looking at this chart, others not) are better correlated with homicide than the one pointed out here.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

the DP is not a deterent when it takes 10-20 years to execute someone....so I do NOT support the current system of DP

[bullmoose88]

the DP is not a deterent when it takes 10-20 years to execute someone....so I do NOT support the current system of DP

I don't think its really a deterrent at all, in theory or in practice, aside from maybe the one or two exceptional cases.  But that's neither here nor there.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

the DP is not a deterent when it takes 10-20 years to execute someone....so I do NOT support the current system of DP

I don't think its really a deterrent at all, in theory or in practice, aside from maybe the one or two exceptional cases.  But that's neither here nor there.

if they held public hangings within six months of conviction and allowed the bodies to root on the rope...it would be a HUGE deterent.

[Likely Voter]

The death penalty is not a policy based on logic, it is based on emotion. Which is why it should be abolished.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally deterrents don't exist at all because most people don't think they'll get caught.

[Meeker]

Wyoming and Idaho don't have the death penalty?

[TJ in Oregon]

The death penalty is not a policy based on logic, it is based on emotion. Which is why it should be abolished.

Exactly, and the emotion it's based on is revenge.

[bgwah]

Wyoming and Idaho don't have the death penalty?

No, the states that color have the death penalty, they just haven't actually used it in a while.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The death penalty is not a policy based on logic, it is based on emotion. Which is why it should be abolished.

Exactly, and the emotion it's based on is revenge.

Yup, this.

[Tender Branson]

I've just looked up the latest homicide statistics for Austria:

2008: 43 completed homicides, 58 attempted homicides (101 total cases)
2009: 40 completed homicides, 101 attempted homicides (141 total cases)
2010: 51 completed homicides, 111 attempted homicides (162 total cases)

First 6 months of 2011:

33 completed homicides, 45 attempted homicides (78 total cases)

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BK/publikationen/krim_statistik/files/2011/Krim_Stat_Juli_2011.pdf

The population is about 8.400.000, which means the homicide rate is swinging between 0.5 and 0.7 completed cases per 100.000 persons.

About 94% of the cases were solved.

That would make Austria the least murderous US state, because the US statistics only counts "completed" murders and leaves out attempts.

[Tender Branson]

I also have to say that "completed" homicide numbers were much higher before 1997 (in the 100 range every year), when the gun laws were heavily restricted here.

I´ve asked the Interior Ministry to send me the statistics from the year 1990 to 2010 to check it. But it seems that at least in Austria the toughening of the gun laws had a good deal of an impact in reducing the low homicide rate to an even lower level.

[Tender Branson]

It seems I don't need the Interior Ministry data, because there was already a study done:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The gun law in Austria was strongly tightened in 1997. Since then the study found:

Weapons permits have declined by 24% between 1997 and 2005.

Gun suicides declined by 26% during 1997 and 2005.

Other methods of suicides have not increased though.

Gun homicides declined by 67% during 1997 and 2005.

Gun suicides are more common in Austrian states that have a higher gun ownership rate.

The study was published in the British Journal of Psychiatry.

[phk]

The FBI has released new homicide data this week. Here's a chart I made and coloring the states by death penalty status:

Can you send me the data so I could add it to my database for future regressions?

[Tender Branson]

The FBI has released new homicide data this week. Here's a chart I made and coloring the states by death penalty status:

Can you send me the data so I could add it to my database for future regressions?

You can find the link to the FBI data below my chart in the 1st post.

[fezzyfestoon]

Hey, how about that death trap New Jersey! This is actually pretty shocking to me. I had no idea the results would look like this.

[Verily]

basically, it's a chart of minority population rates

Thats one way of putting it.  % Urban is another.  I'm sure theres a decent correlation between population and homicide.

% Urban? Surely not. Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, these are not portraits of urbanism.

[Tender Branson]

I´ve asked the Interior Ministry to send me the statistics from the year 1990 to 2010 to check it.

But it seems that at least in Austria the toughening of the gun laws had a good deal of an impact in reducing the low homicide rate to an even lower level.

I have received the data now and made a chart:



And indeed, the (completed) homicide rate fell by 34% after the tougher gun law went into effect in 1997 !

Gun control is great ...

[Link]

basically, it's a chart of minority population rates

Gotta love that dog whistle.

[Tender Branson]

basically, it's a chart of minority population rates

Thats one way of putting it.  % Urban is another.  I'm sure theres a decent correlation between population and homicide.

% Urban? Surely not. Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, these are not portraits of urbanism.

Well, if you take out St. Louis and Kansas City from the Missouri total - it's a totally different story:

Missouri had 420 murders in 2010, of which 144 were in St. Louis and 102 in Kansas City.

Without these cities, the murder count is at 176. The population of the 2 cities combined is 838.000.

So, 5.989.000 minus the 838.000 for the 2 cities equals 5.151.000

It further means, that if we take out the 2 cities, Missouri's murder rate drops to 3.4/100.000 people, down from 7/100.000 !!!