You are Andrew Cuomo: Do you secretly want Obama to win or lose in 2012?

[Skill and Chance]

Assume that you plan to run in 2016 and obviously want the most favorable environment possible for this.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think Andrew cares more about keeping a loonie out than his future.

[NVGonzalez]

I think Andrew cares more about keeping a loonie out than his future.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Andrew cares more about keeping a loonie out than his future.

So let's assume it's Romney or Huntsman vs. Obama.  What outcome would put him in the best position?

[tmthforu94]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

[Skill and Chance]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

Do you think that, hypothetically, he would be better off trying to unseat Mitt in one world than trying to succeed Obama for a 3rd Democratic term in another?

Normally, I would say he'd have a better chance at the open seat, but given the national resentment of Washington, Romney having <40% approval in 2016 does seem more plausible than Obama having recovered to >60% approval even 5 years from now.

[NHI]

When Romney's president I see Cuomo as waiting it out until 2020. Romney will be a two termer.

[Skill and Chance]

When Romney's president I see Cuomo as waiting it out until 2020. Romney will be a two termer.

Forced budget balancing (which will be issue #1 with a GOP congress and president) could send headline unemployment into the teens like it did in 1937-38.  Or it could be the next Morning in America.  What's clear is that the GOP alone will answer for whatever happens between 2013 and 2015, good or bad.  That sets up a wave election in 2014/2016.

If Obama stays on there is less likely to be a wave election either way  because the blame or praise will be more evenly distributed (unless Dems somehow pull a 1948 and retake the House).

Would Cuomo bet on a GOP incumbent imploding or would he bet on Obama recovering enough to be a 2016 campaign asset? 

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

[President von Cat]

When Romney's president I see Cuomo as waiting it out until 2020. Romney will be a two termer.

I don't see how you can make that statement. Romney is going to have almost no room for error if he becomes POTUS. The Republican base already doesn't really trust him, Democrats will hate him by default, independents will cool to him as soon as he has to start making tough decisions.

Plus, nothing the Republicans have done since 2009 has indicated to me that they have a vision or goal for the future of this country, or a solution to any of its ailments. This will also become apparent in 2013.

Romney can easily wind up as a one term president.

Skill and Chance, if the last six months are any guide, further "budget balancing" is going to just push the economy back into recession/continue our deflationary spiral. Nothing can pull us out of this mess until the housing market starts recovering. Government spending can make the difference between weak growth and no growth, but we won't see "Morning in America" until real estate gets with the program.

[NCeriale]

When Romney's president I see Cuomo as waiting it out until 2020. Romney will be a two termer.

Forced budget balancing (which will be issue #1 with a GOP congress and president) could send headline unemployment into the teens like it did in 1937-38.  Or it could be the next Morning in America.  What's clear is that the GOP alone will answer for whatever happens between 2013 and 2015, good or bad.  That sets up a wave election in 2014/2016.

If Obama stays on there is less likely to be a wave election either way  because the blame or praise will be more evenly distributed (unless Dems somehow pull a 1948 and retake the House).

Would Cuomo bet on a GOP incumbent imploding or would he bet on Obama recovering enough to be a 2016 campaign asset? 

He could be the second governor from NY named Cuomo to pass on a chance to challenge a shoe-in President for a second term

[Sam Spade]

Cuomo can win a nomination?  lol

[Skill and Chance]

Cuomo can win a nomination?  lol

He's the most popular Democratic governor in the country. 

[Sam Spade]

Cuomo can win a nomination?  lol

He's the most popular Democratic governor in the country. 

Yes - that is the absolute key to winning a nomination.

[TJ in Oregon]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.

In 2016 the Republicans  are going to have a huge number of weak incumbents holding Senate seats -- Republicans out of touch with states in which they are Senators holding seats that Republicans could win only in the freakish year of 2010 (Rubio, Ayotte, Kirk, Portman, Johnson, Toomey) and can win again only if they restyle themselves as moderates, a couple who might be vulnerable in a reverse wave if they are out of touch with slightly-R states (Blunt, Marshall --  MO, NC), and a couple of fellows aged 80 or so (Grassley, McCain) who have been going decidedly rightward.   Should the Republicans win the Senate in 2012 and or 2014, President Obama is effectively neutralized as a President, becoming in essence a caretaker and a lame duck.  But  ten vulnerable Senate seats? Such utterly destroys the chance of a GOP filibuster. A bare Democratic majority in 2014 in the Senate could give the 45th President much to achieve. Tea Party politics will likely die that year.

[TJ in Oregon]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.

In 2016 the Republicans  are going to have a huge number of weak incumbents holding Senate seats -- Republicans out of touch with states in which they are Senators holding seats that Republicans could win only in the freakish year of 2010 (Rubio, Ayotte, Kirk, Portman, Johnson, Toomey) and can win again only if they restyle themselves as moderates, a couple who might be vulnerable in a reverse wave if they are out of touch with slightly-R states (Blunt, Marshall --  MO, NC), and a couple of fellows aged 80 or so (Grassley, McCain) who have been going decidedly rightward.   Should the Republicans win the Senate in 2012 and or 2014, President Obama is effectively neutralized as a President, becoming in essence a caretaker and a lame duck.  But  ten vulnerable Senate seats? Such utterly destroys the chance of a GOP filibuster. A bare Democratic majority in 2014 in the Senate could give the 45th President much to achieve. Tea Party politics will likely die that year.

The GOP will likely lose Senate seats in 2016 because 2010 was a freak year, but Florida, New Hampshire. Ohio, and Pennsylvania were seats a Republican was also elected to the previous time in 2004. They aren't seats a "Republican could only win in 2010". Sure Kirk might be in trouble but he may also have enough RINO in him to survive regardless.

If 2016 is a Democratic year, then yes things will be very difficult for the GOP. But, that's also five years away. Who knows what the country will be like at that point. Heck, of Obama does get re-elected his approval ratings could be in the 20s by then if the economy is still failing. If that happens Rob Portman may have a chance of winning Cuyahoga County, much less the Ohio race even being close. There's absolutely no use in predicting Senate races five years in advance. None.

[pbrower2a]

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.

In 2016 the Republicans  are going to have a huge number of weak incumbents holding Senate seats -- Republicans out of touch with states in which they are Senators holding seats that Republicans could win only in the freakish year of 2010 (Rubio, Ayotte, Kirk, Portman, Johnson, Toomey) and can win again only if they restyle themselves as moderates, a couple who might be vulnerable in a reverse wave if they are out of touch with slightly-R states (Blunt, Marshall --  MO, NC), and a couple of fellows aged 80 or so (Grassley, McCain) who have been going decidedly rightward.   Should the Republicans win the Senate in 2012 and or 2014, President Obama is effectively neutralized as a President, becoming in essence a caretaker and a lame duck.  But  ten vulnerable Senate seats? Such utterly destroys the chance of a GOP filibuster. A bare Democratic majority in 2014 in the Senate could give the 45th President much to achieve. Tea Party politics will likely die that year.

The GOP will likely lose Senate seats in 2016 because 2010 was a freak year, but Florida, New Hampshire. Ohio, and Pennsylvania were seats a Republican was also elected to the previous time in 2004. They aren't seats a "Republican could only win in 2010". Sure Kirk might be in trouble but he may also have enough RINO in him to survive regardless.

If 2016 is a Democratic year, then yes things will be very difficult for the GOP. But, that's also five years away. Who knows what the country will be like at that point. Heck, of Obama does get re-elected his approval ratings could be in the 20s by then if the economy is still failing. If that happens Rob Portman may have a chance of winning Cuyahoga County, much less the Ohio race even being close. There's absolutely no use in predicting Senate races five years in advance. None.

Ohio had about as strong an incumbent (George Voinovich) to re-elect in 2004. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire had RINOs in 2004. Nobody says that RINO types can't win in the northeastern quadrant of the US.   Florida had a three-way split with a unified Right unlikely to be repeated in 2016. As it is, Roy Blunt is extremely unpopular in Missouri.  You can't deny the ages of Senators McCain and Grassley and that they have drifted far from being moderates.

Sure, it is five years away -- but freakish events in politics don't persist, but consequences persist until the next election. The Tea Party is now extremely unpopular -- well, not as unpopular as the KKK or the Communist Party, but likely to lose all credibility except on the political fringe. But it has gotten some politicians elected, and those either go down with the sinking popularity of the Tea Party or else redefine themselves. If they redefine themselves then they may resurrect their political careers before it is too late... at the expense of the solidity of the Hard Right, and at the risk of right-wing funds.

I can see how President Obama gets approval ratings in the 20s, but such would require bungling as bad as that of Dubya. I don't know... anything is possible. I don't see him as a repetition of Dubya even as a liberal opposite. He is a stickler for legal, procedural, and diplomatic niceties; he isn't going to take it out on a State or a Congressional district just because it votes 'wrong'; he is cautious enough to avoid calamities that result from reckless. He surely reads intelligence reports. If he does have to break the rules he does so with meticulous attention to likely consequences.

The economy is a mess, and it will be so so long as a majority in the House and filibusters in the Senate ensure that the only acceptable policy is to enrich the Right People at the expense of everyone else. But that is a high-risk objective of those who won in 2010, and it can backfire politically -- which I predict. Enough? Hardly! The Democrats will likely win back the House, but they will be lucky to hold onto the Senate.
 

[© tweed]

why does this matter?  the great example we can use for the cynical-theorizing along these lines would be Hillary in '04 -- plenty of speculation she wanted Bush to be re-elected, which of course made sense, because an open nomination contest in '08 was at stake.  but here, '16 - (D) will be open regardless, barring constitutional changes, and a 73 year old Biden, while he may well would give it a shot, hardly characterizes "prohibitive frontrunner".

[Paul Kemp]

why does this matter?  the great example we can use for the cynical-theorizing along these lines would be Hillary in '04 -- plenty of speculation she wanted Bush to be re-elected, which of course made sense, because an open nomination contest in '08 was at stake.  but here, '16 - (D) will be open regardless, barring constitutional changes, and a 73 year old Biden, while he may well would give it a shot, hardly characterizes "prohibitive frontrunner".

yuup

[milhouse24]

Well, Cuomo is running in 2016 no matter what.  He's not going to flip flop like his father.  If he doesn't get the nomination, he'll run again in 2020, no big deal.  

Even if the GOP win in 2012, there's no guarantee that a more popular Democrat can not defeat him.  I think a Warner-Cuomo ticket would be very strong in 2016.  

If you want to be president, just run for president.  Timing is irrelevant and Hillary probably wishes she ran in 2004, because she could have beaten Bush.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Uh, Democrats will likely have a better chance at winning an open seat in 2016 than defeating a Republican incumbent.

[Averroës Nix]

Well, Cuomo is running in 2016 no matter what.  

What makes you so confident? This decision involves many factors, including a few that are almost totally unpredictable.

[milhouse24]

Well, Cuomo is running in 2016 no matter what.  

What makes you so confident? This decision involves many factors, including a few that are almost totally unpredictable.

There are a few significant factors that push Cuomo towards running 2016, including his age, if he loses, he'll have debate practice like Romney, and then he can run again in 2020; and he's not going to repeat the wishy-washiness of Mario Cuomo, which was just embarrassing.  I'm even kinda pissed that Cuomo turned down Supreme Court Justice when Bill Clinton offered it to him.  Andrew Cuomo knows what the prize is, and its not stopping as Governor - he wants the White House, he had married a Kennedy after all. 

[Eraserhead]

Well, we all know he's tired of that black shuckin' and jivin'.