Which is a more likely President/Senate control in 2013? (see post for details)

[nclib]

NOTE: I am NOT taking into consideration how likely an Obama win is in 2012 for this poll. I'm asking, if you assume an Obama win (or likewise an Obama loss), which has a greater chance of happening?

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I'd say Option 1, since the Dems have far more seats (esp. vulnerable ones) up. The GOP will likely pick up ND and NE regardless, and would just need to have a net gain of two other seats. If Obama loses, probably several Dems will go down.

[Psychic Octopus]

The former, by far. I don't even see Option 2 as plausible given the current situation. If Obama loses, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Virginia are probably gone. If he wins, the Democrats probably retain Virginia, but the others are still up in the air.

[Dizzun]

The first option, given a narrow Obama victory, I'd say GOP control of the Senate is likely. If Obama loses, the GOP takes the Senate easily.

[Miles]

The former, by far. I don't even see Option 2 as plausible given the current situation. If Obama loses, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Virginia are probably gone. If he wins, the Democrats probably retain Virginia, but the others are still up in the air.

I agree. If Obama loses, he'll drag the Jon Testers and Claire McCaskills down with him.

[Username MechaRFK]

Opinion 1

It's the way this election is heading towards.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama wins re-election, Republicans gain 5-10 seats and take the Senate.

Republicans arent gaining 5-10 seats if Obama wins reelection.  How in the hell would that even happen?

[Lunar]

I could see Option 2 happening more than other commenters in this thread. If you write off North Dakota and Nebraska, the Dems would only have to break even across the rest of the map (something that looks slightly easier with Elizabeth Warren's recent surge in polling).

The GOP fumbled a number of Senate races in ways that would have defied conventional wisdom at the start of 2010 -- Colorado, Delaware, Nevada, etc., and it certainly seems possible that the GOP could make a couple missteps in Nevada, Virginia, Missouri, etc.  to potentially muck things up again.  But of course the Senate map broadly favors the GOP, as most of the tossup races are currently held by Democrats.

Option 1 is more likely IMO, but it's a tad bit more complicated than that!

[Napoleon]

Option one obvi

[Miles]

If on election night 2012, Allen is projected the winner in the Virgnia senate race early in the evening, is that good news for republicans across the board for the night?

Yeah, I'd be worried to see a close race like that break for the Republican early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state to watch out for is WI too, if that state goes GOP then the Senate likely will go GOP

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Option 3: GOP/TEA party sweep. President and senate take over.

[nclib]

Option 3: GOP/TEA party sweep. President and senate take over.

Please read my first post.

NOTE: I am NOT taking into consideration how likely an Obama win is in 2012 for this poll. I'm asking, if you assume an Obama win (or likewise an Obama loss), which has a greater chance of happening?