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| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Bacon King)
| | |-+  Next BIG Swing State?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What state has the potential to become the BIG state in 2008?
Wisconsin   -4 (5.1%)
Iowa   -0 (0%)
New Mexico   -0 (0%)
Nevada   -4 (5.1%)
Pennsylvania   -17 (21.5%)
Virginia   -14 (17.7%)
Colorado   -14 (17.7%)
Florida....again....   -8 (10.1%)
Ohio....again....   -16 (20.3%)
Other(Please state)   -2 (2.5%)
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Total Voters: 77

Author Topic: Next BIG Swing State?  (Read 3682 times)
YRABNNRM
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« on: December 20, 2004, 07:12:40 pm »
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Although I would think that it's pretty impossible to tell now what states do you think will be the big states in future elections(such as Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004)?

Even though it won't matter anyway because we have know idea who the candidates will be it's interesting to think about.
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A18
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2004, 07:13:54 pm »
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California
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2004, 07:14:55 pm »
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PA

1996 - Clinton by 9

2000 - Gore by 5

2004 - Kerry by 2.5

2008 - BIG swing state
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2004, 07:18:08 pm »
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Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on December 20, 2004, 07:14:55 pm
PA

1996 - Clinton by 9

2000 - Gore by 5

2004 - Kerry by 2.5

2008 - BIG swing state

Thats my vote.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2004, 07:19:32 pm »
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Well if PA is the next big swing state we better make sure that Rendell doesn't run :p
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2004, 07:21:48 pm »
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I think Nevada will be closest in 2008, but it isn't quite "big."

Pennsylvania earns my vote. Florida and Ohio will probably be pro-Republican by about 1.5, although Ohio depends on the economy, heavily.

Pennsylvania should be about Democrat 0.5.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2004, 07:25:30 pm »
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Quote from: AndrewBerger on December 20, 2004, 07:19:32 pm
Well if PA is the next big swing state we better make sure that Rendell doesn't run :p

He has already stated that if re-elected he will serve his full term meaning no 2008 run.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
YRABNNRM
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2004, 07:41:49 pm »
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Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on December 20, 2004, 07:25:30 pm
Quote from: AndrewBerger on December 20, 2004, 07:19:32 pm
Well if PA is the next big swing state we better make sure that Rendell doesn't run :p

He has already stated that if re-elected he will serve his full term meaning no 2008 run.

Clinton also said that when he was re-elected in Arkansas Wink
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Cashcow
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2004, 07:55:15 pm »
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PA seems to just be going Democratic +5 from the popular vote. I don't see any significant trend. However, it depends on the candidates.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2004, 07:57:24 pm »
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Quote from: AndrewBerger on December 20, 2004, 07:41:49 pm
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on December 20, 2004, 07:25:30 pm
Quote from: AndrewBerger on December 20, 2004, 07:19:32 pm
Well if PA is the next big swing state we better make sure that Rendell doesn't run :p

He has already stated that if re-elected he will serve his full term meaning no 2008 run.

Clinton also said that when he was re-elected in Arkansas Wink

Rendell would have to start gearing up for a race in early 2007 and the voters would relize that he broke his promise. Wouldn't be a smart move.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
True Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2004, 08:05:25 pm »
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I voted Virginia, but it's really a tie between it and Pennsylvania.  I think if the Democrat's nominate a populist or a moderate, it won't be a swing state, even if Ohio is.  However, Virginia is trending towards swing state.  Even as LIBERAL Kerry did worse than MODERATE Gore in liberal states like Maryland, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, he kept the same margin in Virginia.
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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2004, 08:11:29 pm »
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In all honesty, I don't think it matters since I don't think 2008 will be a close race. I don't know who'll win, but it'll be a clear victory either way.

why? When's the last time we had 3 close races in a row? not since 1884-1892, and that had the same Democrat running all 3 times, and the same Republican twice of those times. The patterns just aren't there. 2 close elections in a row is actually very rare. 2008 will be a clear victory, either way.
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2004, 08:16:27 pm »
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Colorado.

It isn't too big, but it's getting much closer than it was.

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A18
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2004, 08:18:05 pm »
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Colorado has barely moved. The only reason it wasn't close in 2000 is that Nader got 5.25% of the vote.
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2004, 08:41:39 pm »
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The only "big" states there are Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. And Ohio lost a gazillion jobs this cycle.

It's Florida or bust for the Democrats.
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15 rounds for the elites but 7 for the people. Interesting.

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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2004, 08:54:44 pm »
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Pennsylvania, maybe Virginia or Colorado, the whole upper midwest, hoping for New Jersey

Didn't vote - unsure
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2004, 09:24:22 pm »
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Depends on the candidates.  But I echo what BTRD said, 2008 will probably be like 1988, a semi-landslide either way.
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ian
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2004, 09:31:30 pm »
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Quote from: Philip on December 20, 2004, 07:13:54 pm
California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2004, 09:33:45 pm »
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Quote from: ian on December 20, 2004, 09:31:30 pm
Quote from: Philip on December 20, 2004, 07:13:54 pm
California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!

Wow, uh, why?
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danwxman
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« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2004, 11:54:17 pm »
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Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.
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ian
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2004, 04:49:09 pm »
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Quote from: X-Mas Alcon on December 20, 2004, 09:33:45 pm
Quote from: ian on December 20, 2004, 09:31:30 pm
Quote from: Philip on December 20, 2004, 07:13:54 pm
California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!

Wow, uh, why?

b/c of Ahnold, the (ever so slight) Republican trend, and the fact that polls taken before the election showed the race tighter there than in the end (ie, in Sep. and Aug., good months for Bush, Kerry was only up by a few points in many polls).
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WHY I'M A DEMOCRAT:
"People who wear Christ on their sleeves and vote against helping people are the biggest hypocrites." - Charlie Melancon, in response to the voting down of the Melancon Amendment to raise levee funding.

For my positions on political issues go to:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18844.msg405414#msg405414

Registered in Mississippi for fantasy politics.  RL resident of Arkansas.  Kentucky avatar for my fav state!
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2004, 05:21:39 pm »
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Quote from: ian on December 21, 2004, 04:49:09 pm
Quote from: X-Mas Alcon on December 20, 2004, 09:33:45 pm
Quote from: ian on December 20, 2004, 09:31:30 pm
Quote from: Philip on December 20, 2004, 07:13:54 pm
California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!

Wow, uh, why?

b/c of Ahnold, the (ever so slight) Republican trend, and the fact that polls taken before the election showed the race tighter there than in the end (ie, in Sep. and Aug., good months for Bush, Kerry was only up by a few points in many polls).

That is very much ever-so-slight. Polls also showed it close in New York and tied in Maryland. Polls sometimes suck, and I think this was one of those cases. The final results are much more telling.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2004, 07:27:20 pm »
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Kerry won California by a million votes. He was a weak candidate and lost the general election by nearly 3%. Barring something major, that will be impossible for Republicans to overcome in the near future.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2004, 02:27:27 pm »
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Depends on who is running, but if it's a conservative vs. a liberal, I would say there the new swing state would be CO.
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phk
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« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2004, 03:29:39 pm »
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Colorado for sure
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