!!!ECRI calls new US Recession!!!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091

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This is HUGE!

ECRI has the best track record for calling US Recessions - they've called them correct for decades WITHOUT a single false call.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle. It means that the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.

Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

you can put a fork in Obama, folks, he's done.  UE will be north of 10% come Nov 2012, even *IF* the new US recession ends next summer, which is a BIG *IF*.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

You look euphoric.

Congratulations (?).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You look euphoric.

Congratulations (?).

No, I've just been following ECRI for 15 years and I've come to trust them more than anyone in calling turns of the business cycle, which is why I have been posting their data on this board for the last 10 years.  And there is no other firm with a perfect track record over the last 3 US recessions without a false call.

When ECRI speaks, you better listen.

[realisticidealist]

Most people don't think we ever got out of a recession. Having that fact simply formalized wouldn't make as big of an impact as you think.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Most people don't think we ever got out of a recession. Having that fact simply formalized wouldn't make as big of an impact as you think.

no, ECRI is not saying we never got out of a recession.  In fact, in the Spring of 2009 when everyone was calling for an immediate new depression, ECRI said on March 19th, 2009 "No, our indicators are pointing to a recovery starting by the end of Summer 2009"....I posted it back then:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89928.msg2011710;topicseen#msg2011710

In Mid Dec 2010, their indexes peaked:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106949.msg2275332;topicseen#msg2275332

And in Feb 2011, they warned we were slowing appreaciably:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=111236.msg2369541;topicseen#msg2369541

Now, in Sept 2009, they calling an outright recession.

[opebo]

Interesting quotes from that article:

at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions.

From 1799 to 1929, nearly 90% of U.S. expansions lasted three years or less

Obviously it was Keynesianism which made recessions shorter, shallower, and less frequent, and expansions longer and higher.  The lesson of history is that we should follow exactly the policies of the 1930s through the 1970s. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Interesting quotes from that article:

at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions.

From 1799 to 1929, nearly 90% of U.S. expansions lasted three years or less

Obviously it was Keynesianism which made recessions shorter, shallower, and less frequent, and expansions longer and higher.  The lesson of history is that we should follow exactly the policies of the 1930s through the 1970s. 

  a

actually, the longest two expansions on record came after the 1970's....though not as robust in their intensity as the recoveries before, the expansions of 1982-1990 and 1991-2000 produced a standard of living never before achieved

[opebo]

actually, the longest two expansions on record came after the 1970's....though not as robust in their intensity as the recoveries before, the expansions of 1982-1990 and 1991-2000 produced a standard of living never before achieved

No, the standard of living was higher before 1973, jmfcst. (I'm only concerned with the working class, obviously).  The expansions of the 1980s and the 1990s were essentially worthless.

[bgwah]

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

[opebo]

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

The lesson is twofold - the economy is the creature of the State, and bad policy destroys the economy both directly and through fear and elimination of confidence.

Anyone who still believes the economy is a separate 'private' entity rather than an expression of State action is laboring in the dark.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

drama, eh?  well, any turkey can tango:

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

[opebo]

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

It is an excellent quote, jmfcst, but you are alas mistaken.  The 'american way of life' was built by John Maynard Keynes, FDR, LBJ, and a billion little Babbits who, while just as simpleminded as yourself, happened to be better led.  I know you think it is all about toting the gun and pretending to be straight, but that's just window dressing.  The world your masters are building for you will look like 1870, and after all that world looked almost entirely like a filthy slum.  Your children - yes, even yours (you're not rich enough) - will be worse off for the choices your sort made.

[realisticidealist]

Most people don't think we ever got out of a recession. Having that fact simply formalized wouldn't make as big of an impact as you think.

no, ECRI is not saying we never got out of a recession.  In fact, in the Spring of 2009 when everyone was calling for an immediate new depression, ECRI said on March 19th, 2009 "No, our indicators are pointing to a recovery starting by the end of Summer 2009"....I posted it back then:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89928.msg2011710;topicseen#msg2011710

In Mid Dec 2010, their indexes peaked:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106949.msg2275332;topicseen#msg2275332

And in Feb 2011, they warned we were slowing appreaciably:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=111236.msg2369541;topicseen#msg2369541

Now, in Sept 2009, they calling an outright recession.

That's not what I meant.

[J. J.]

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

Don't congratulate us,; we have not been pushing for one for nearly three years. 

More Obamanomics.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

It is an excellent quote, jmfcst, but you are alas mistaken.  The 'american way of life' was built by John Maynard Keynes, FDR, LBJ, and a billion little Babbits who, while just as simpleminded as yourself, happened to be better led.  I know you think it is all about toting the gun and pretending to be straight, but that's just window dressing.  The world your masters are building for you will look like 1870, and after all that world looked almost entirely like a filthy slum.  Your children - yes, even yours (you're not rich enough) - will be worse off for the choices your sort made.

You just like Keynes because he was a member of the Bloomsbury Group.

[t_host1]

It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle. It means that the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.

Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.

 The misunderstood's have understood this call for some time and, have been preparing. The IMF made the call about this time last year, started hording gold and silver. Dubya knew it when he started the bail out of the auto's, the fundamentals of collateral and trade were breached, then the nail, was, TARP. Even that illusion was not fully implemented as intended, the dilution escalated, the only thing that was accomplished, was, it bought some time for those that were paying attention. The one who is in denial, are the ones who will first perish. At present, the baggers of TEA are the thumb in the dike. It's simple, hold off further dilution, trade on the basics till repeals can be installed and the pairing down of spending. The Europe reality, there isn't the equity and liberties to cover.
 Hold on, good luck, It will be OK for most.

[opebo]

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

It is an excellent quote, jmfcst, but you are alas mistaken.  The 'american way of life' was built by John Maynard Keynes, FDR, LBJ, and a billion little Babbits who, while just as simpleminded as yourself, happened to be better led.  I know you think it is all about toting the gun and pretending to be straight, but that's just window dressing.  The world your masters are building for you will look like 1870, and after all that world looked almost entirely like a filthy slum.  Your children - yes, even yours (you're not rich enough) - will be worse off for the choices your sort made.

You just like Keynes because he was a member of the Bloomsbury Group.

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

It is an excellent quote, jmfcst, but you are alas mistaken.  The 'american way of life' was built by John Maynard Keynes, FDR, LBJ, and a billion little Babbits who, while just as simpleminded as yourself, happened to be better led.  I know you think it is all about toting the gun and pretending to be straight, but that's just window dressing.  The world your masters are building for you will look like 1870, and after all that world looked almost entirely like a filthy slum.  Your children - yes, even yours (you're not rich enough) - will be worse off for the choices your sort made.

You just like Keynes because he was a member of the Bloomsbury Group.

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

I've read the forum for some time before I registered, but that has nothing to do with my last comment. It was just random stuff. And your obvious intention of trolling, because keynesianism is not that different from, say, neoclassical liberalism.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

maybe intermoderate has a brother.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

maybe intermoderate has a brother.

Who? Si soy un clon bien podrías empezar por preguntarme el porqué hablo tan buen castellano y asuntos por el estilo, pero evidentemente eso estaría fuera de tus límites.

[opebo]

.. keynesianism is not that different from, say, neoclassical liberalism.

It is just different enough, M. Peep.  Like the salt and pepper in a stew - it makes all the difference.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

M. Peep.  

This nick is kind of cute. And I prefer salt with Popper (the thinker, not the drug).

[opebo]

And I prefer salt with Popper (the thinker, not the drug).

Well, yes, you're just another right winger.  How many depressions will it take?