Santorum and Obama - Who's Next 2005

[Smash255]

Spector is the most popular PA politician, not Santorum.

Specter wins big when Election Day comes around (except that last primary) but other than that, people don't really like him that much. Also, if you'd take a look at approval ratings, Specter has had some of the lowest approval ratings.

Specter had the highest approval ratings.  He was being bashed from the primaries to the election and that did impact his approval ratings & took the attention away from Santorum's hate rants

[Smash255]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

This is part of the reason why I don't think Santorum will win.  The Conservative Dems in PA are not very Conservative they are somewhat Conservative.  Santorum has taken a sharp right turn since 2000 and many of those Conservative Dems who voted for Santorum in 2000 aren't going to vote for him in 06 because of how far right he has gotten

[Smash255]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

This is part of the reason why I don't think Santorum will win.  The Conservative Dems in PA are not very Conservative they are somewhat Conservative.  Santorum has taken a sharp right turn since 2000 and many of those Conservative Dems who voted for Santorum in 2000 aren't going to vote for him in 06 because of how far right he has gotten

The conservative Dems like Santorum. Conservative Dem has to make a decision - Liberal Democratic candidate  or conservative Republican that they like and respect and voted for in the past. He will win. He has about a 54% approval rating in the state. Get over it.

The whole union thing could be an issue though.  Bottom line is Santorum has gone well to the right from where he was in 2000, and the cross-over votes are going to suffer because of that.

[Smash255]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

This is part of the reason why I don't think Santorum will win.  The Conservative Dems in PA are not very Conservative they are somewhat Conservative.  Santorum has taken a sharp right turn since 2000 and many of those Conservative Dems who voted for Santorum in 2000 aren't going to vote for him in 06 because of how far right he has gotten

The conservative Dems like Santorum. Conservative Dem has to make a decision - Liberal Democratic candidate  or conservative Republican that they like and respect and voted for in the past. He will win. He has about a 54% approval rating in the state. Get over it.

Bottom line is Santorum has gone well to the right from where he was in 2000, and the cross-over votes are going to suffer because of that.

I don't believe he has gone far to the right since 2000. Bottom line is that Santorum is one of the most popular officials in the state and consistently receives high approval ratings/low disapproval ratings. Have fun arguing with the facts.

His approval ratings have hovered in the low to mid 50's.  Thats decent I won't deny that, but its not like he has amazing approval ratings.  His approval ratings are a good 10-15% below both of the senators from my state.

Santorum has drifted pretty far to the right since 2000.  he ran under a fairly moderate campaign in 2000.  He can't come close to doing that this year.  The Conservative Dems you speak of I just don't see voting for Santorum, in the numbers they did in 2000 or anything.  Most of those Conservative Dems tend to be in western PA, a heavily unionized area, and Santorum's record on unions is bad & has gotten worse within the last 4 years.

His whole comments about government intervention in the so called "private life" of citizens will really come back to haunt him.  not many people know about his comments, but its something the Dems will make a big deal about in 06.  Those comments are probably going to wind up hurting him than his anti-gay tirade.

[Smash255]

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His ratings are usually the highest in Pennsylvania. I'm sorry but I don't care what Schumer and Clinton have in NY. That's really not of my concern when discussing a PA Senate race.

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1) I will stick by my statement that Santorum has not drifted further to the right.

2) Conservative Dems in the west are in heavily unionzed areas but that hasn't stopped them from supporting him in the past and doesn't stop them from saying that they approve of the job he is doing now. Once again, have fun arguing with the facts.

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First off, he doesn't go on anti-gay tirades.

Secondly, people do know of his comments. It was all over the news. Guess what? His approval ratings stayed the same. Yes, I'll say it again: Argue with the facts.

I mentioned the NY ratings because you try to act like Santorum is  untouchable.  His approval ratings are solid but he doesn't have 65-70% approval.

As far as Santorum not drifitng further right, just look at his ACU ratings.  His lifetime ratings is 87, but if you look at the past 3 years the average is well into the 90's.

I'm sorry, but he did go on an anti-gay tirade/  Beastiality??  hello.  and the comments I was talking about was his comments about private citizens rights or non rights in his view.  Those comments did not get nearly the coverage of his beastiality comments

[Smash255]

When did I say Santorum was untouchable? Given his likely opposition, he is very likely to win re-election, in my opinion. Untouchable would be like Craig Thomas (R) in Wyoming. I've never compared Santorum's chances to that of an untouchable.

As for ACU ratings, in 2000, Santorum had a 100 rating. I don't know how they came up with that. It seems too high. However, you decided to use the ACU argument and your argument is weak. Since his last re-election, according to these numbers, he has dropped. So, using these ratings, you can actually say that he was re-elected in 2000 being more conservative than he probably will be in 2006.

You continue to say Santorum is anti-gay and all that. It's nothing new so I hope that when he is asked during a debate "Do you hate gays?" and he gives you an answer that you can accept it and move on.

Yes in 2000 his ACU rating was 100, but the years before that were in the 80's for the mostt part.  He pretty much ran his campaign as someone who is just slightly right of Center.  He was able to run a campaign like that for 2 main reasons.  1 his opponent did a poor job of pointing out that Santorum was actually well to the right of how he was running and 2.  Santorum really only had 1 year where he had a very conservative voting record.  prior years his voting record although being conservative wasn't very Conservative.  he can't run on that anymore because his voting record of the last 4 years has been very Conservative.  If he continues to have a voting record similar he will be running in 2006, with his seventh straight year of having a very conservative voting record.  As opposed to whjen he ran in 2000, where he had a very Conservative voting record for 1 year, but his voting record in the years prior despite being Conservative wasn't very Conservative

[Smash255]

When did I say Santorum was untouchable? Given his likely opposition, he is very likely to win re-election, in my opinion. Untouchable would be like Craig Thomas (R) in Wyoming. I've never compared Santorum's chances to that of an untouchable.

As for ACU ratings, in 2000, Santorum had a 100 rating. I don't know how they came up with that. It seems too high. However, you decided to use the ACU argument and your argument is weak. Since his last re-election, according to these numbers, he has dropped. So, using these ratings, you can actually say that he was re-elected in 2000 being more conservative than he probably will be in 2006.

You continue to say Santorum is anti-gay and all that. It's nothing new so I hope that when he is asked during a debate "Do you hate gays?" and he gives you an answer that you can accept it and move on.

Yes in 2000 his ACU rating was 100, but the years before that were in the 80's for the mostt part.  He pretty much ran his campaign as someone who is just slightly right of Center.  He was able to run a campaign like that for 2 main reasons.  1 his opponent did a poor job of pointing out that Santorum was actually well to the right of how he was running and 2.  Santorum really only had 1 year where he had a very conservative voting record.  prior years his voting record although being conservative wasn't very Conservative.  he can't run on that anymore because his voting record of the last 4 years has been very Conservative.  If he continues to have a voting record similar he will be running in 2006, with his seventh straight year of having a very conservative voting record.  As opposed to whjen he ran in 2000, where he had a very Conservative voting record for 1 year, but his voting record in the years prior despite being Conservative wasn't very Conservative

Once again I'll point out that people know about his conservative voting record. They approve of the job he is doing. The Dems are likely to put up a more liberal candidate that won't be able to connect well with the people of PA.

Other than one year his voting record when he ran in 2000 wasn't as Conservative as his voting record over the past few years.  During the 90's Santorum was Conservative, but his voting record was far more moderate than its been over the last few years.  He was basically able to run his 2000 campaign as someone who is slightly to the right of Center.  He won't be able to run that type of close to a moderate campaign in 2006

[Smash255]

When did I say Santorum was untouchable? Given his likely opposition, he is very likely to win re-election, in my opinion. Untouchable would be like Craig Thomas (R) in Wyoming. I've never compared Santorum's chances to that of an untouchable.

As for ACU ratings, in 2000, Santorum had a 100 rating. I don't know how they came up with that. It seems too high. However, you decided to use the ACU argument and your argument is weak. Since his last re-election, according to these numbers, he has dropped. So, using these ratings, you can actually say that he was re-elected in 2000 being more conservative than he probably will be in 2006.

You continue to say Santorum is anti-gay and all that. It's nothing new so I hope that when he is asked during a debate "Do you hate gays?" and he gives you an answer that you can accept it and move on.

Yes in 2000 his ACU rating was 100, but the years before that were in the 80's for the mostt part.  He pretty much ran his campaign as someone who is just slightly right of Center.  He was able to run a campaign like that for 2 main reasons.  1 his opponent did a poor job of pointing out that Santorum was actually well to the right of how he was running and 2.  Santorum really only had 1 year where he had a very conservative voting record.  prior years his voting record although being conservative wasn't very Conservative.  he can't run on that anymore because his voting record of the last 4 years has been very Conservative.  If he continues to have a voting record similar he will be running in 2006, with his seventh straight year of having a very conservative voting record.  As opposed to whjen he ran in 2000, where he had a very Conservative voting record for 1 year, but his voting record in the years prior despite being Conservative wasn't very Conservative

Once again I'll point out that people know about his conservative voting record. They approve of the job he is doing. The Dems are likely to put up a more liberal candidate that won't be able to connect well with the people of PA.

Other than one year his voting record when he ran in 2000 wasn't as Conservative as his voting record over the past few years.  During the 90's Santorum was Conservative, but his voting record was far more moderate than its been over the last few years.  He was basically able to run his 2000 campaign as someone who is slightly to the right of Center.  He won't be able to run that type of close to a moderate campaign in 2006

I'll just keep saying it even though you refuse to accept the point: People know of his record. He is one of the most popular figures in the state. He has high approval ratings and the lowest disapproval ratings. I want you to argue with the people that like him and tell him "You can't like him. He ran a center-right campaign in 2000. His past voting record was like this. Don't you get it? You can't like him."

He has decnet approval ratings, they are NOT through the roof.  The point I'm simply making is, the type of campaign which he ran in 2000 in which he was able to reach out toward middle of the road type voters he is NOT going to be able to do in 2006.  He can NOT run on the same type of basically a moderate platform as he did in 2006

[Smash255]

When did I say Santorum was untouchable? Given his likely opposition, he is very likely to win re-election, in my opinion. Untouchable would be like Craig Thomas (R) in Wyoming. I've never compared Santorum's chances to that of an untouchable.

As for ACU ratings, in 2000, Santorum had a 100 rating. I don't know how they came up with that. It seems too high. However, you decided to use the ACU argument and your argument is weak. Since his last re-election, according to these numbers, he has dropped. So, using these ratings, you can actually say that he was re-elected in 2000 being more conservative than he probably will be in 2006.

You continue to say Santorum is anti-gay and all that. It's nothing new so I hope that when he is asked during a debate "Do you hate gays?" and he gives you an answer that you can accept it and move on.

Yes in 2000 his ACU rating was 100, but the years before that were in the 80's for the mostt part.  He pretty much ran his campaign as someone who is just slightly right of Center.  He was able to run a campaign like that for 2 main reasons.  1 his opponent did a poor job of pointing out that Santorum was actually well to the right of how he was running and 2.  Santorum really only had 1 year where he had a very conservative voting record.  prior years his voting record although being conservative wasn't very Conservative.  he can't run on that anymore because his voting record of the last 4 years has been very Conservative.  If he continues to have a voting record similar he will be running in 2006, with his seventh straight year of having a very conservative voting record.  As opposed to whjen he ran in 2000, where he had a very Conservative voting record for 1 year, but his voting record in the years prior despite being Conservative wasn't very Conservative

Once again I'll point out that people know about his conservative voting record. They approve of the job he is doing. The Dems are likely to put up a more liberal candidate that won't be able to connect well with the people of PA.

Other than one year his voting record when he ran in 2000 wasn't as Conservative as his voting record over the past few years.  During the 90's Santorum was Conservative, but his voting record was far more moderate than its been over the last few years.  He was basically able to run his 2000 campaign as someone who is slightly to the right of Center.  He won't be able to run that type of close to a moderate campaign in 2006

I'll just keep saying it even though you refuse to accept the point: People know of his record. He is one of the most popular figures in the state. He has high approval ratings and the lowest disapproval ratings. I want you to argue with the people that like him and tell him "You can't like him. He ran a center-right campaign in 2000. His past voting record was like this. Don't you get it? You can't like him."

He has decnet approval ratings, they are NOT through the roof.  The point I'm simply making is, the type of campaign which he ran in 2000 in which he was able to reach out toward middle of the road type voters he is NOT going to be able to do in 2006.  He can NOT run on the same type of basically a moderate platform as he did in 2006

They're not through the roof but they are some of the highest, if not the highest, approval ratings in the state! What don't you understand? He also has the lowest disapproval ratings.

Santorum might not do as well as he did in 2000 when it comes to moderate voters but he has built up enough of a base among conservatives in the state and especially western PA residents that will allow him to win re-election in 2006.

many of the Conservative Dems in Western PA you talk about so much also tends to be Union workers.  Santorum's union record is abysmal, especiially over the last few years.  So despite sharing some of his Conservative views I think it will be really hard for Santorum to do much of anything with the Conservative Dems in Western PA due to his very anti-Union record, especially within the last few years

[Smash255]

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Why do they say that they approve of the job he is doing if he's so "anti-union?"

You have mentioned his overall approval in the low to mid 50's.  Not sure what his approval among unionists are, but I would pretty much bet its lower.  Regardless in a battle, his union record will be a major topic and thats really going to hurt him among those in Unions.

[Smash255]

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Why do they say that they approve of the job he is doing if he's so "anti-union?"

 Not sure what his approval among unionists are, but I would pretty much bet its lower. 

The PA Senate race is decided by all eligible voters, not just union members.

Yes I know that, but you have said on many occasions that the way Santorum will make up for the Moderate Republicans vote against him is through Conservative Dems in Western PA.  However, many of those Conservative Dems are Union Members.  So how is Santorum going make up for those Moderate Reps that defect from him through Conservatve Unionized Dems in Western PA?//

[Smash255]

Increasingly, the conservative Union members are conservatives first and union members second.

That may be true, but Santorum's union  record is very very poor, he is rated among the worst senators in the country when it comes down to unions.  So despite the fact that they may be conservatives first & union members second the fact his union record is so extreme & so poor that could really hurt him in that regard