Santorum and Obama - Who's Next 2005

[Keystone Phil]

Newsweek came out with an edition titled "Who's Next 2005." Conservative Republicans get Santorum listed as "Who's Next" while the the new hero of Senate liberals Barack Obama is listed as "Who's Next" for the Dems. These two men, along with eight others, are said to "shape our world" in the next year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6733264/site/newsweek/

[Keystone Phil]

it states that Santorum smoked pot in the seventies hehe...

Yeah that's too bad but atleast he admitted to it. I think most would look at Santorum, think that he would never do something like that and so he wouldn't say anything.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't worry about Rick to much...even if he survives re-election in 2006 (not a sure thing), he'll be damaged goods.

I like how everyone is making his 2006 race into a big deal. He's going to win it and it won't be a one or two point election either.

By the way moose, Santorum is likely to become the next Majority leader. So much for being damaged goods...

[Keystone Phil]

I like how everyone is making his 2006 race into a big deal.

Because he's abrasive, divisive, can't keep his Goddamned mouth shut, holds a seat in a marginal state (est. 1932) and is going to be targetted like there's no tomorrow

Yeah and you also left out the fact that the people lining up to challenge him have poor chances and the fact that Santorum is one of the most (if not, the most) popular statewide elected officials. His approval ratings are high and he has the lowest disapproval ratings. Just thought I'd let you know that you left that out. PA likes Santorum, Al. It doesn't matter that liberals on the forum dislike him. Your dislike doesn't mean his chances go down.

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If that happens the GOP can kiss goodbye a load of Senate seats in 2008

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I'm sure that if Howard Dean is the DNC chairman the votes for Democratic Senate candidates will just start pouring in, Al.

[Keystone Phil]

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Al, the only PA Dem that could beat Santorum is Casey. That's it. Maybe Holden but other than that, Santorum will keep the seat. Casey has dismissed the idea of a run several times now. The Dems won't win here. However, if you'd like to take money out of VA and MO races to focus on PA, that's fine with me. All you'll be doing is wasting your money.

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Last I looked his approval rating was hovering around 52%. Not brilliant, not bad. If the PA Dems can get their act together he'll have a tough race in 2006 (note: I'm not saying he's a gonner. I reckon he's got a 50/50 chance of getting re-elected)


Last I saw he was at 54 and had the lowest disapproval numbers in the state. People like him here. The PA Dems can try to "get their act together" but the only way they win this seat, as I have stated many times (along with others) is if Casey were to run. That's NOT going to happen. His chances are much better than 50-50.

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Last I heard it'll be Frost (TX) or Roemer (IN)

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Roemer doesn't have the support and I don't see Frost getting enough support to make a difference. I'm not saying it is definetley going to be Dean but if it is, Senate and House Dems will have some tough re-election bids.

[Keystone Phil]

Spector is the most popular PA politician, not Santorum.

Specter wins big when Election Day comes around (except that last primary) but other than that, people don't really like him that much. Also, if you'd take a look at approval ratings, Specter has had some of the lowest approval ratings.

[Keystone Phil]

Spector is the most popular PA politician, not Santorum.

Specter wins big when Election Day comes around (except that last primary) but other than that, people don't really like him that much. Also, if you'd take a look at approval ratings, Specter has had some of the lowest approval ratings.

Specter had the highest approval ratings.  He was being bashed from the primaries to the election and that did impact his approval ratings & took the attention away from Santorum's hate rants

The lack of attention to "Santorum's hate rants." You're a joke, Smash. Fact is Specter has the lowest approval ratings and high disapproval numbers from the latest Quinnipaic poll. Now, granted, the latest poll came out in August but that's what we're going by now because there hasn't been another one released yet.

[Keystone Phil]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

[Keystone Phil]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Philadelphia's metro area is growing fairly quick.  A good number of these people are transplants from New York and north Jersey.  Most of these are Democratic.  Granted the city itself is declining.  Santorum is not a liked figure in Southeastern PA, which has a bulk of the population of PA.  I'll admit Santorum will pick up some of Klink's support out west though very slightly, but I think the Dems have bottomed out in that region to begin with.  He will lose drastically in the Southeast.  People will still have a grudge against Bush losing and Santorum will be the #1 target for the DSCC.  His being lock-step bosom buddy with Bush will be widely known and we will be just as energized to defeat Santorum as we were Bush.  Better hope the televangelists/RW Catholic nutjobs turn out for you guys. 

We don't need "nutjobs" to turn out for us. I still don't think you understand that you're average Pennsylvanian approves of the job Santorum is doing. Face it. Get over it. Accept the fact that if you guys don't put up Casey, you'll lose.

Your Howard Dean liberals of Montco and Chestnut Hill won't be enough to beat Santorum. They can be energized all they want. It won't be enough without Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Philadelphia's metro area is growing fairly quick.  A good number of these people are transplants from New York and north Jersey.  Most of these are Democratic.  Granted the city itself is declining.  Santorum is not a liked figure in Southeastern PA, which has a bulk of the population of PA.  I'll admit Santorum will pick up some of Klink's support out west though very slightly, but I think the Dems have bottomed out in that region to begin with.  He will lose drastically in the Southeast.  People will still have a grudge against Bush losing and Santorum will be the #1 target for the DSCC.  His being lock-step bosom buddy with Bush will be widely known and we will be just as energized to defeat Santorum as we were Bush.  Better hope the televangelists/RW Catholic nutjobs turn out for you guys. 

Your Howard Dean liberals of Montco and Chestnut Hill won't be enough to beat Santorum. They can be energized all they want. It won't be enough without Casey.

Newsflash.. I STILL LIVE IN NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA!!!  Besides NE Philly, came out for Allyson Schwartz, a supposed "to liberal for the Northeast and the district" and spanked your girl Melissa Brown by 23 points.  And don't give me this weak campaign manager crap.  She had John Perzel as chairman.  People knew of her Section 8 "crusade".  NO EXCUSES!

Ok, remember 2000.  Klink still came within 7 and got virtually no supprt of the DSCC.  He had no money and was an unknown in SE Penn, which virtually locked the suburbs for Santorum due to Specter's support.     

When did I say you didn't live in Northeast Philly? Schwartz won up here because of strong straight Dem ticket voting. Section 8 wasn't mentioned enough. It's amazing how I can't have an excuse but you can cry "Oh Brendan....it was so unfair. The unions...they wanted Kenney..." when you said Boyle would win by about four points. What happened to NO EXCUSES?

Klink came within 7 points because he connected with the conservative Dems out west. Put up a liberal like Hafer or Hoeffel. I beg you to do that. They might have money but they don't connect!

[Keystone Phil]

I just love how you said Allyson didn't connect, but hey she had the money and she won!  The Dem came very close last time with practically no money and almost won.  If a Dem equals on $$$ or even comes close, they usually win!

Hahaha! The money? She had strong pro abortion rights groups up here that gave her the money. Look at her entire campaign. You couldn't find a single person who wasn't from Maryland! People didn't know Schwartz on the issues. People voted straight Dem and watched Schwartz call Brown sleazy everyday. On the issues, Schwartz would have been laughed at in the NE.

The Dem didn't come very close last time. Klink lost by 7 points. Not very close at all. He connected because he was a more conservative Dem. Put up Hafer or Hoeffel, give them the money and I guarentee they still lose. They'll lose on the issues.

And finally, explain to me why you can make excuses for Boyle but I can't give reasons why I think Brown lost?

[Keystone Phil]

Accept the fact that if you guys don't put up Casey, you'll lose.

Personally I agree... I don't expect Santorum to lose in 2006, he's by no mean a lock and a strong candidate could use PA's Democratic tilt against him... but like Tom Harkin or Jesse Helms he might not be an ideological fit for PA but he has a personal vote. If Casey ran he’d probably win, but the Dems best shot could be when Spectre retires in 2010 (If he does). 

Specter is done in 2010 and I agree that the Dems have the better chance at winning that seat though that could change.

Santorum's views are shared by many Pennsylvanians. Once again, look at the approval ratings. BacardiLimon says that he's close to the President. Well everyone sees that yet it doesn't hurt him when he gets rated by the voters so I don't see the point.

The Dems can win if Casey runs but who knows if that will happen. If he's not a candidate, my worries are gone. I'm not going to be concerned about Barbara Hafer or Joe Hoeffel or T.J. Rooney.

[Keystone Phil]

What has Obama actually done to make him so admired by Democrats (besides beat Alan Keyes by 60-points )?

I think it's amazing. The guy is a State Senator and gains nationwide attention and a great amount of admiration. I could never imagine my joke of a State Senator in Obama's position.

[Keystone Phil]

What has Obama actually done to make him so admired by Democrats (besides beat Alan Keyes by 60-points )?

I think it's amazing. The guy is a State Senator and gains nationwide attention and a great amount of admiration. I could never imagine my joke of a State Senator in Obama's position.

Let's be fair to Obama.

1.  He is exceptionally articulate, overshadowing Clinton at the DNC.

2.  He has an exceptionally powerful "rags-to-riches" personal story.

3.  You might disagree with it, but he had a productive record as a State Senator.

4.  He packaged himself as a moderate in his speech.

It's a good start, but let's see how well he does in the Senate.

I agree. Obama is a great speaker. He does have a great personal story. He's an impressive individual.

 However, the way I see it, he will become one of the Senators I dislike the most. He will end up having a voting record that I highly disagree with. In my opinion, Illinois will have the worst Senatorial delegation.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree. Obama is a great speaker. He does have a great personal story. He's an impressive individual.

 However, the way I see it, he will become one of the Senators I dislike the most. He will end up having a voting record that I highly disagree with. In my opinion, Illinois will have the worst Senatorial delegation.

I'll reserve judgment.  He's better than Mosely-Braun, clearly. 

I can remember a line from his DNC, "It doesn't take a village to raise a child; it takes a family to raise a child."  Now, he said that with Hilary Clinton sitting there.

If he developes a more moderate voting record and distances himself from the Loony Left, he could be an exceptionally compelling national figure (and possibly a presidential contender).

Obama will not have a moderate record. Sorry. He might not be a vocal liberal like Ted Kennedy or Barbara Boxer because, as you stated, he might want to run for President. However, I still think he'll have a liberal voting record.

[Keystone Phil]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Why won't Hoeffel have the turnout Kerry did? Kerry did not run a good campaign, as you often say, but with Rendell at the top of the ticket, turnout will be good.

Hoeffel is a liberal, Santorum is a conservative, PA is basically split. It's neither liberal nor conservative. That means close election.

It was a Presidential election. If you think you'll have the same turnout or higher in 2006, you're crazy.

The way you just analyzed this election made no sense at all and demonstrates that you know nothing about PA politics. Sorry, Akno. It's not as easy as saying "One's liberal, one's conservative. The state is neither. There will be a close election." I won't comment any further because I am in disbelief that that's the way you think in regards to this race.

[Keystone Phil]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Why won't Hoeffel have the turnout Kerry did? Kerry did not run a good campaign, as you often say, but with Rendell at the top of the ticket, turnout will be good.

Hoeffel is a liberal, Santorum is a conservative, PA is basically split. It's neither liberal nor conservative. That means close election.

It was a Presidential election. If you think you'll have the same turnout or higher in 2006, you're crazy.

The way you just analyzed this election made no sense at all and demonstrates that you know nothing about PA politics. Sorry, Akno. It's not as easy as saying "One's liberal, one's conservative. The state is neither. There will be a close election." I won't comment any further because I am in disbelief that that's the way you think in regards to this race.

 But Kerry won PA, in spite of a crummy campaign. If the Dems produce a challenger who is similar to Kerry, and we all know Santorum is similar to Bush, then the Dems stand a fighting chance, and bring the race into "can swing either way" territory.

You make things so simple. It is not that way at all. Using your logic, Ron Klink should have won in 2000.

[Keystone Phil]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

[Keystone Phil]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

This is part of the reason why I don't think Santorum will win.  The Conservative Dems in PA are not very Conservative they are somewhat Conservative.  Santorum has taken a sharp right turn since 2000 and many of those Conservative Dems who voted for Santorum in 2000 aren't going to vote for him in 06 because of how far right he has gotten

The conservative Dems like Santorum. Conservative Dem has to make a decision - Liberal Democratic candidate  or conservative Republican that they like and respect and voted for in the past. He will win. He has about a 54% approval rating in the state. Get over it.

[Keystone Phil]

One advantage Santorum will have is that he'll have a united party. The Democrats will have to go through the primaries, while Santorum can just raise money during that period. BTW, is Hoeffel the frontrunner for the Dem nomination?

The PA GOP won't be that united. RINOs in suburban areas outside of Philly will not vote for him. However, I think he will pick up his numbers with conservative Dems, allowing him to win this race.

Right now, there is no frontrunner for the Dem nomination. Outgoing State Treasurer Barbara Hafer (Dem turned Republican turned Dem again) and Joe Hoeffel are the major likely candidates and in a Hafer-Hoeffel race, I'd bet Hafer wins it. However, word is that extremely popular conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. (incoming State Treasurer) is considering a run. If he runs, he'd probably win the nomination and would beat Santorum.

In my opinion, Casey won't run. There will be a Hafer-Hoeffel primary with some minor candidates (State EPA administrator Kathleen McGinty, Charlie Crystle are possible candidates. If they run, they would probably have the "minor candidates" status.)

This is part of the reason why I don't think Santorum will win.  The Conservative Dems in PA are not very Conservative they are somewhat Conservative.  Santorum has taken a sharp right turn since 2000 and many of those Conservative Dems who voted for Santorum in 2000 aren't going to vote for him in 06 because of how far right he has gotten

The conservative Dems like Santorum. Conservative Dem has to make a decision - Liberal Democratic candidate  or conservative Republican that they like and respect and voted for in the past. He will win. He has about a 54% approval rating in the state. Get over it.

Bottom line is Santorum has gone well to the right from where he was in 2000, and the cross-over votes are going to suffer because of that.

I don't believe he has gone far to the right since 2000. Bottom line is that Santorum is one of the most popular officials in the state and consistently receives high approval ratings/low disapproval ratings. Have fun arguing with the facts.

[Keystone Phil]

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His ratings are usually the highest in Pennsylvania. I'm sorry but I don't care what Schumer and Clinton have in NY. That's really not of my concern when discussing a PA Senate race.

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1) I will stick by my statement that Santorum has not drifted further to the right.

2) Conservative Dems in the west are in heavily unionzed areas but that hasn't stopped them from supporting him in the past and doesn't stop them from saying that they approve of the job he is doing now. Once again, have fun arguing with the facts.

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First off, he doesn't go on anti-gay tirades.

Secondly, people do know of his comments. It was all over the news. Guess what? His approval ratings stayed the same. Yes, I'll say it again: Argue with the facts.

[Keystone Phil]

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His ratings are usually the highest in Pennsylvania. I'm sorry but I don't care what Schumer and Clinton have in NY. That's really not of my concern when discussing a PA Senate race.

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1) I will stick by my statement that Santorum has not drifted further to the right.

2) Conservative Dems in the west are in heavily unionzed areas but that hasn't stopped them from supporting him in the past and doesn't stop them from saying that they approve of the job he is doing now. Once again, have fun arguing with the facts.

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First off, he doesn't go on anti-gay tirades.

Secondly, people do know of his comments. It was all over the news. Guess what? His approval ratings stayed the same. Yes, I'll say it again: Argue with the facts.

Guess what? His dissaproval numbers jumped when he said that.

Where are his latest approval/disapproval ratings, dan?

[Keystone Phil]

When did I say Santorum was untouchable? Given his likely opposition, he is very likely to win re-election, in my opinion. Untouchable would be like Craig Thomas (R) in Wyoming. I've never compared Santorum's chances to that of an untouchable.

As for ACU ratings, in 2000, Santorum had a 100 rating. I don't know how they came up with that. It seems too high. However, you decided to use the ACU argument and your argument is weak. Since his last re-election, according to these numbers, he has dropped. So, using these ratings, you can actually say that he was re-elected in 2000 being more conservative than he probably will be in 2006.

You continue to say Santorum is anti-gay and all that. It's nothing new so I hope that when he is asked during a debate "Do you hate gays?" and he gives you an answer that you can accept it and move on.

[Keystone Phil]

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His ratings are usually the highest in Pennsylvania. I'm sorry but I don't care what Schumer and Clinton have in NY. That's really not of my concern when discussing a PA Senate race.

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1) I will stick by my statement that Santorum has not drifted further to the right.

2) Conservative Dems in the west are in heavily unionzed areas but that hasn't stopped them from supporting him in the past and doesn't stop them from saying that they approve of the job he is doing now. Once again, have fun arguing with the facts.

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First off, he doesn't go on anti-gay tirades.

Secondly, people do know of his comments. It was all over the news. Guess what? His approval ratings stayed the same. Yes, I'll say it again: Argue with the facts.

Guess what? His dissaproval numbers jumped when he said that.

Where are his latest approval/disapproval ratings, dan?

lol, I showed you the article....gosh it must have been three times...that said his disapproval numbers jumped up after those comments. Go look for it yourself this time.

Hmmmm...I really liked how the article just stated "Yeah by the way, Santorum's disapproval numbers are up, up, up!" without showing the polls details. Sorry. When discussing this, I like to see the actual results. Until otherwise, I will continue to state that Santorum has some of the highest approval ratings and the lowest disapproval numbers of those officials rated.

[Keystone Phil]

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My point is that they didn't provide the data and I'm not ready to believe an article without seeing the breakdown.