Santorum and Obama - Who's Next 2005

[Akno21]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

[Akno21]

What has Obama actually done to make him so admired by Democrats (besides beat Alan Keyes by 60-points )?

I think it's amazing. The guy is a State Senator and gains nationwide attention and a great amount of admiration. I could never imagine my joke of a State Senator in Obama's position.

Let's be fair to Obama.

1.  He is exceptionally articulate, overshadowing Clinton at the DNC.

2.  He has an exceptionally powerful "rags-to-riches" personal story.

3.  You might disagree with it, but he had a productive record as a State Senator.

4.  He packaged himself as a moderate in his speech.

It's a good start, but let's see how well he does in the Senate.

I agree. Obama is a great speaker. He does have a great personal story. He's an impressive individual.

 However, the way I see it, he will become one of the Senators I dislike the most. He will end up having a voting record that I highly disagree with. In my opinion, Illinois will have the worst Senatorial delegation.

Alan Keyes also is a great speaker with an amazing rags to riches story.

And, if you saw the deabtes, he ate Obama alive and spit out what was left to stomp on it.

Keyes creamed Obama in the debates, and that is why he didn't win 10 percent of the vote or something along that line.

I watched those debates, and I had a much different conclusion. I think Obama exposed that Keyes biggest issues were religion and state legislatures choosing Senators, which are not burning issues now, to be sure.

[Akno21]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Why won't Hoeffel have the turnout Kerry did? Kerry did not run a good campaign, as you often say, but with Rendell at the top of the ticket, turnout will be good.

Hoeffel is a liberal, Santorum is a conservative, PA is basically split. It's neither liberal nor conservative. That means close election.

[Akno21]

Why won't Hoeffel have the turnout Kerry did? Kerry did not run a good campaign, as you often say, but with Rendell at the top of the ticket, turnout will be good.

Hoeffel is a liberal, Santorum is a conservative, PA is basically split. It's neither liberal nor conservative. That means close election.

In a word, geography.  Western PA likes having its own resident senator; the "T" doesn't want any one of the other regions to dominate the state.  This gives an advantage to candidate from the western part when running against someone from the southeastern part.

Also, do not expect Rendell to get a large turnout from the SE in the next election.

I see your point, but my main question is, if the candidates are politically the same as Kerry and Bush, why would Santorum win, and by a comfortable margin at that.

[Akno21]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Why won't Hoeffel have the turnout Kerry did? Kerry did not run a good campaign, as you often say, but with Rendell at the top of the ticket, turnout will be good.

Hoeffel is a liberal, Santorum is a conservative, PA is basically split. It's neither liberal nor conservative. That means close election.

It was a Presidential election. If you think you'll have the same turnout or higher in 2006, you're crazy.

The way you just analyzed this election made no sense at all and demonstrates that you know nothing about PA politics. Sorry, Akno. It's not as easy as saying "One's liberal, one's conservative. The state is neither. There will be a close election." I won't comment any further because I am in disbelief that that's the way you think in regards to this race.

Turnout will be slightly down, on both sides, and I don't think we can anaylze turnout 22 months in advance.

Does Santorum have the upper hand? Of course he does. It depends on how well each side campaigns and gets their bases excited. It depends on how the next 2 years play out. But Kerry won PA, in spite of a crummy campaign. If the Dems produce a challenger who is similar to Kerry, and we all know Santorum is similar to Bush, then the Dems stand a fighting chance, and bring the race into "can swing either way" territory.