National WaPo-ABC Poll: Romney Leads; Perry, Cain Tied for Second

[Averroës Nix]

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Among RVs (% w/o Christie & Palin in parenthesis):

Romney - 20 (25)
Cain - 15 (16)
Perry - 15 (16)
Christie - 10
Palin - 8
Paul - 7 (11)
Gingrich - 7 (7)
Bachmann - 4 (7)
Santorum - 2 (2)
Huntsman - 1 (1)

[Eraserhead]

Taking Christie and Palin out helps Romney? Interesting.

That's kind of a lackluster showing for Christie too considering all of the buzz. That's dead and gone now anyway though.

[Eraserhead]

General election among registered voters:

Romney +2 over Obama
Obama +3 over Perry
Christie and Obama are tied

Obama has small to moderate leads over the three among the general population.

Sorry, folks. No Cain numbers.

[King]

General election among registered voters:

Romney +2 over Obama
Obama +3 over Perry
Christie and Obama are tied

Obama has small to moderate leads over the three among the general population.

Sorry, folks. No Cain numbers.

Of course, why would they poll the new frontrunner when he was at 1% the last week when they asked this question?

[Likely Voter]

Amazing how Romney has got no benefit from the collapses of both Bachmann and Perry. Romney had 25% in the last month's WaPo poll and he had 30% in the mid July poll.

[WillK]

Taking Christie and Palin out helps Romney? Interesting.

I felt it was predictable that a portion of Christie supporters would otherwise pick Romney.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

stripping out Christie & Palin:

Romney - 25
Cain - 16
Perry - 16
Paul - 11
Gingrich - 7
Bachmann - 7
Santorum - 2
Huntsman - 1

If Cain (16) avoids a major implosion, you gotta think a majority of Perry (16), Gingrich (7) and Bachmann (7) support will transfer over to Cain.

Bottom line, Romney has had a ceiling of 25-30% for a long time, with the vast majority of the rest of the support going to candidates to the right of Romney.

[Averroës Nix]

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I wish we had a way of knowing how engaged and informed these voters are. Some combination of Tea Party-affiliated joke candidates usually gets about 30-40% support. It's difficult to say whether these voters are really committed to voting to against Romney or just temporarily smitten with Cain's sunny personality or Paul's principled, curmudgeonly commitment to ideology.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Taking Christie and Palin out helps Romney? Interesting.

yep, Christie is much more of a threat to Romney than he is to Cain...both Christie and Romney are way to the social left of Cain.