WV Governor - The Results Thread
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Author Topic: WV Governor - The Results Thread  (Read 11572 times)
Seattle
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« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2011, 07:51:01 PM »
Down to 50-46-2-1
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2011, 07:54:46 PM »
Tomblin's vote lead now back to 9000, up from 7000.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2011, 07:55:14 PM »
Governor - General
October 04, 2011 - 08:48PM ET
West Virginia - 849 of 1883 Precincts Reporting - 45%
   Name    Party    Votes    Vote %
   Tomblin , Earl Ray    Dem    79,739    50%
   Maloney , Bill    GOP    73,241    46%
   Baber , Bob Henry    Mnt    3,341    2%
   Ingels , Marla    Ind    1,393    1%
   Bertram , Harry    Oth    612    0%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2011, 07:55:28 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 04, 2011, 07:46:35 PM
Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

I'll correct this, seeing what's out, it might get down to 2-3%, but no closer.

Logan - 6701-561-23-18-8, all precincts in.  That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2011, 07:56:00 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 04, 2011, 07:55:28 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 04, 2011, 07:46:35 PM
Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

I'll correct this, seeing what's out, it might get down to 2-3%, but no closer.

Logan - 6701-561-23-18-8, all precincts in.  That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.

You have to love things like that, you really do.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #30 on: October 04, 2011, 07:57:16 PM »
Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.
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Miles
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« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2011, 07:59:50 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 07:57:16 PM
Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.

Yep, its holding pretty steady at 50-51 Tomblin, 46-47 Maloney.
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Seattle
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« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2011, 08:00:34 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 04, 2011, 07:55:28 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 04, 2011, 07:46:35 PM
Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

 That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.
Well, that is because Tomblin is from Logan county.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #33 on: October 04, 2011, 08:03:42 PM »
I guess the final result will be something like

50.5 Tomblin
46.5 Maloney
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #34 on: October 04, 2011, 08:04:11 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 07:57:16 PM
Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.
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Miles
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« Reply #35 on: October 04, 2011, 08:06:02 PM »
Called for Tomblin.
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #36 on: October 04, 2011, 08:06:53 PM »
No one needs to kid themselves any longer. It's Tomblin.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #37 on: October 04, 2011, 08:07:22 PM »
Aaaaaaaaaaand check!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #38 on: October 04, 2011, 08:12:24 PM »
What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...
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RI
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« Reply #39 on: October 04, 2011, 08:17:52 PM »
Back to 8,000. I believe some heavily Republican counties just finished coming in at the same time (eg Grant County).
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Miles
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« Reply #40 on: October 04, 2011, 08:19:31 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 08:12:24 PM
What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...

It should start to expand. McDowell and Webster haven't reported yet either; they should both be very friendly to Tomblin.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #41 on: October 04, 2011, 08:21:39 PM »
Maloney would need to win the remaining 50.000 votes by about 60-40 to break even with Tomblin.

I don't think he can do that.
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Holmes
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« Reply #42 on: October 04, 2011, 08:26:39 PM »
R+1?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #43 on: October 04, 2011, 08:27:23 PM »

Maybe next year ...
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Torie
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« Reply #44 on: October 04, 2011, 08:27:43 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2011, 08:33:14 PM by Torie »
It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #45 on: October 04, 2011, 08:31:23 PM »
Quote from: Torie on October 04, 2011, 08:27:43 PM
It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.
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Torie
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« Reply #46 on: October 04, 2011, 08:34:37 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 08:31:23 PM
Quote from: Torie on October 04, 2011, 08:27:43 PM
It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.

Probably not, and since that county is such an outlier, those uncounted precincts are probably disproportionately Dem.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #47 on: October 04, 2011, 08:37:26 PM »
Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.
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Torie
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« Reply #48 on: October 04, 2011, 08:46:18 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 08:37:26 PM
Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.

It will probably be a 4% to 6% margin, depending on what's uncounted in Kanawha, unless the Kanawha precincts uncounted are one's where the LDS moved in and made those areas a Mormon "ghetto." Somehow, I doubt that.  Tongue It is clearly over now I think.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #49 on: October 04, 2011, 08:48:41 PM »
Tomblin won Raleigh county; interesting because that's one area that has seen sustained and significant movement towards Republican candidates even in many non-Presidential elections.
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