WV Governor - The Results Thread

[RI]

Kanawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

[Torie]

Kawawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

Amazing! What an outlier. 4% [3%] or so margin then it looks like.

[FloridaRepublican]

I don't know why other Republicans got their hopes up. Sure, Maloney might have surged lately, but I never had any doubt that Tomblin was either going to squeak by or win by 5-10 points. Never a doubt.

[Seattle]

Kawawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

Amazing! What an outlier. 4% or so margin then it looks like.

I do wonder what caused the race to be so close here....

[FloridaRepublican]

Kawawha just finished coming in, and Tomblin won by only 49%-48%, by about 600 votes.

Amazing! What an outlier. 4% or so margin then it looks like.

I do wonder what caused the race to be so close here....

Obviously it's that voter intimidation by Republicans!

[RI]

Map with all counties 100% reporting:

[Sam Spade]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne.  Those counties in full:

2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)

Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)

Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)

Any questions?

[Sam Spade]

Final margin is like 2.5% for anyone who cares.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Damn I totally forgot about this. Oh well good result.

[ElectionAtlas]

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

[RI]

Full unofficial 100% result is now posted on the Atlas.
Enjoy,
Dave

I think you have Kanawha County backwards, at least according to AP's results.

[Miles]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne.  Those counties in full:

2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)

Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)

Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)

Any questions?

So, I'm guessing that Tomblin lost WV-01 and WV-02 by single-digits but got about 65% in WV-03?

[RI]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

Point #1: Tomblin SD is Boone, Logan and parts of Lincoln and Wayne.  Those counties in full:

2011: 16,159 (73.9%) Tomblin, 5,358 (24.5%) Mahoney, 351 (1.6%) Others (21,868 total, 49.4% margin, 10,801 vote margin, 67.5% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 20,563 (63.4%) Manchin, 11,103 (34.3%) Raese, 746 (2.3%) Others (32,412 total, 29.1% margin, 9,460 vote margin)

Point #2: Rest of Southern Coalfields (at least under the historical definition) is McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Raleigh and Wyoming:
2011: 16,816 (59.7%) Tomblin, 10,684 (37.9%) Mahoney, 680 (2.4%) Others (28,180 total, 21.8% margin, 6,132 vote margin, 52.1% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 29,783 (55.0%) Manchin, 22,877 (42.3%) Raese, 1477 (2.7%) Others (54,137 total 12.7% margin, 6,906 vote margin)

Point #3: Rest of State
2011: 117,757 (46.4%) Tomblin, 126,847 (50.0%) Mahoney, 9,066 (3.6%) Others (253,670 total, -3.6% margin, -9,090 vote margin, 57.2% of 2010 turnout)
2010: 233,012 (52.6%) Manchin, 196,033 (44.2%) Raese, 14,354 (3.2%) Others (443,399 total, 8.4% margin, 33,679 vote margin)

Any questions?

So, I'm guessing that Tomblin lost WV-01 and WV-02 by single-digits but got about 65% in WV-03?

I can calculate CD results real fast, if you want.

[RI]

CD 1: Maloney 51.99%, Tomblin 44.79% (Maloney +8,683)
CD 2: Maloney 50.58%, Tomblin 46.19% (Maloney +4,215)
CD 3: Tomblin 60.58%, Maloney 36.60% (Tomblin +20,740)

[greenforest32]

How much longer will WV elect Democratic governors while voting 55-65% for the Republican candidate in presidential elections?

[Miles]

CD 1: Maloney 51.99%, Tomblin 44.79% (Maloney +8,683)
CD 2: Maloney 50.58%, Tomblin 46.19% (Maloney +4,215)
CD 3: Tomblin 60.58%, Maloney 36.60% (Tomblin +20,740)

Thanks.

Tomblin did worse in WV-01; Maloney performed disproportionately well in WV-01 because he was from there, I guess. In any case. not good news for Oliverio

How much longer will WV elect Democratic governors while voting 55-65% for the Republican candidate in presidential elections?

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

[rbt48]

Does anyone know how Logan County voted in 2008 between McCain and Obama?  How about last year in the Senate race?

[Miles]

Does anyone know how Logan County voted in 2008 between McCain and Obama?  How about last year in the Senate race?

54-44 McCain
81-18 Byrd (2006)
71-29 Rockefeller (2008)
76-20 Manchin (2008)
70-29 Manchin (2010)

[rbt48]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

[greenforest32]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

[rbt48]

Does anyone know how Logan County voted in 2008 between McCain and Obama?  How about last year in the Senate race?

54-44 McCain
81-18 Byrd (2006)
71-29 Rockefeller (2008)
76-20 Manchin (2008)
70-29 Manchin (2010)

Wow, Tomblin must be a good neighbor.  He did 22% better than Manchin did in 2010 (not to mention 48% better than Obama).

[Miles]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

Eh, kinda. McKinley was a fluke and he will be gone in 2012. I'll be campaigning against him next year

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

I never said that WV was a liberal state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Local lad made good, you know?

[greenforest32]

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there.  

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House delegation is 2 to 1 GOP.

Eh, kinda. McKinley was a fluke and he will be gone in 2012. I'll be campaigning against him next year

Outside of Presidential elections, WV is a Democratic state just like Massachusetts or Maryland. State/local Democrats know how to frame themselves to win there. 

I can't fully compare it to MA or MD as its House deligation is 2 to 1 GOP.

I also take issue with WV Democrat = MA/MD Democrat. Massachusetts and Maryland are much more liberal than West Virginia.

I never said that WV was a liberal state.

I know you said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What I'm saying is that they have different positions on the issues despite being "Democrats". I'd wager there is much higher support for banning abortion and gay marriage among WV Democrats than MA Democrats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You might, but you should keep that elsewhere. Let's not have another election thread hijacked by moral issue wank.