WV Governor - The Results Thread

[Seattle]

Down to 50-46-2-1

[Tender Branson]

Tomblin's vote lead now back to 9000, up from 7000.

[Yelnoc]

Governor - General
October 04, 2011 - 08:48PM ET
West Virginia - 849 of 1883 Precincts Reporting - 45%
   Name    Party    Votes    Vote %
   Tomblin , Earl Ray    Dem    79,739    50%
   Maloney , Bill    GOP    73,241    46%
   Baber , Bob Henry    Mnt    3,341    2%
   Ingels , Marla    Ind    1,393    1%
   Bertram , Harry    Oth    612    0%

[Sam Spade]

Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

I'll correct this, seeing what's out, it might get down to 2-3%, but no closer.

Logan - 6701-561-23-18-8, all precincts in.  That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.

[Sibboleth]

Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

I'll correct this, seeing what's out, it might get down to 2-3%, but no closer.

Logan - 6701-561-23-18-8, all precincts in.  That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.

You have to love things like that, you really do.

[Tender Branson]

Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.

[MilesC56]

Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.

Yep, its holding pretty steady at 50-51 Tomblin, 46-47 Maloney.

[Seattle]

Will probably end up being between 4-6 points in the end, but I'm calling it.

Curious to see how much the margin in Tomblin's district accounts for his victory.

 That's 300 more votes than Manchin got in 2010, and is responsible for 2/3rds of the lead.

Well, that is because Tomblin is from Logan county.

[Tender Branson]

I guess the final result will be something like

50.5 Tomblin
46.5 Maloney

[Talleyrand]

Tomblin now ahead by 10.000 votes with 57% in.

I think we can call it.

[MilesC56]

Called for Tomblin.

[FloridaRepublican]

No one needs to kid themselves any longer. It's Tomblin.

[Governor Scott]

Aaaaaaaaaaand check!

[Tender Branson]

What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...

[realisticidealist]

Back to 8,000. I believe some heavily Republican counties just finished coming in at the same time (eg Grant County).

[MilesC56]

What's going on now ?

The leads is down from 10500 to 6500 ...

It should start to expand. McDowell and Webster haven't reported yet either; they should both be very friendly to Tomblin.

[Tender Branson]

Maloney would need to win the remaining 50.000 votes by about 60-40 to break even with Tomblin.

I don't think he can do that.

[Holmes]

R+1?

[Tender Branson]

R+1?

Maybe next year ...

[Torie]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

And from some of the Pubbie strongholds of some size like Wood not in at all when I left to drive home, the break is 52-48 Dem if replicated statewide.  Odd little patterns.

[Tender Branson]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.

[Torie]

It is places like this that apparently saved Tomblin's ass: Wetzel   22/22 1,379 41%   1,806
54%.  That is 10 points above break even or 60-40 Tomblin if replicated statewide. So it looks like he may win. This despite a disastrous performance in Kanawha.  I assume the AP knows where the numbers are coming from in that county, because 50 precincts are out, and if mostly in the Pubbie zone there, it is a bit early for me.

Maloney is not gaining 8000 votes in these 50 county precincts.

Probably not, and since that county is such an outlier, those uncounted precincts are probably disproportionately Dem.

[Tender Branson]

Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.

[Torie]

Maloney now needs to win the remaining precincts by at least 70-30 to break even.

It will probably be a 4% to 6% margin, depending on what's uncounted in Kanawha, unless the Kanawha precincts uncounted are one's where the LDS moved in and made those areas a Mormon "ghetto." Somehow, I doubt that.  It is clearly over now I think.

[Sibboleth]

Tomblin won Raleigh county; interesting because that's one area that has seen sustained and significant movement towards Republican candidates even in many non-Presidential elections.