Why were the national polls wrong?
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  Why were the national polls wrong?
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Author Topic: Why were the national polls wrong?  (Read 5072 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: May 14, 2013, 01:44:11 PM »

Maybe I'm having amnesia from six months ago, but what is the currently accepted explanation for why Obama overperformed all the national polls?
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bedstuy
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2013, 04:46:24 PM »

Obama's campaign outclassed Romney's campaign in GOTV and ground-game for one thing.

But, more importantly, likely voter screens seemed to obscure the accuracy of polling.  Most of the national polls weighted their sample towards a whiter, more Republican, less black, less Latino and older electorate.   

For example, Gallup poll's estimation of likely voters before the election vs. exit polls.
18-29: 13%, Exit Polls: 19%
Black: 11%, Exit polls: 13%
Latino: 7%, Exit polls: 10%
Democrat: 35%, Exit polls: 38%
Republican: 36%, Exit polls: 32%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2013, 08:33:29 PM »

It is hard top predict who will vote, especially in populations whose prior behavior in voting is ill-known. Models may have assumed that the electorate would be much like that of 2008 (more D-friendly than justified, but generally right) or that the electorate would look much like that of 2010 (much more R-friendly than justified).

It all reduces to what narrative one wishes to believe.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2013, 10:20:28 PM »

I'm still curious to know how ORCA would've worked if it didn't crash. I doubt it would've changed much, but it did sound pretty cool at the time.
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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2013, 05:11:13 PM »

What was interesting is the state polls tended to be more accurate than the national polls, and typically the state polls can have more issues.  As Bed Stuy pointed out the national polls tended to use a much tighter voting screen which resulted in the sample being older and whiter than reality.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2013, 11:38:53 PM »

Maybe I'm having amnesia from six months ago, but what is the currently accepted explanation for why Obama overperformed all the national polls?

4 million conservatives never showed up to vote. They may have overestimated their chances or decided that a non-Christian candidate wasn't worth their time. Polls always show Democrats winning which is why I was so stunned on election night after seeing Romney winning for the weeks leading up to the election.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2013, 10:30:36 PM »

It's because pollsters like Gallup and Rasmussen were taking polls that were probably initially accurate, since you're just taking a cross section of the electorate, and then adjusting them to who they perceived would turn up to vote in November.  It's a method that laughs in the face of both math and rationality and I'm glad they got some serious egg on their face.

It's even better that the Romney internals basically did the same thing. 

(It's also hilarious that they only called landlines)
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ag
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2013, 10:48:10 PM »

The polls were fine, in general. Some polls were off. Nate Silver was able to hit the result based on the poll information - so don't blame the polls.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2013, 05:45:22 PM »

The polls were fine, in general. Some polls were off. Nate Silver was able to hit the result based on the poll information - so don't blame the polls.
This.

Maybe I'm having amnesia from six months ago, but what is the currently accepted explanation for why Obama overperformed all the national polls?

4 million conservatives never showed up to vote. They may have overestimated their chances or decided that a non-Christian candidate wasn't worth their time. Polls always show Democrats winning which is why I was so stunned on election night after seeing Romney winning for the weeks leading up to the election.
The mirror opposite of October 2004. A Democrat back then insisted that Kerry was ahead in Ohio after the debates and that he was tied in Wisconsin and exit polls showed the mirror opposite of what the final vote was. What happened was that 4 million progressives stayed home and 4 million  conservatives got off their ass. For weeks thereafter, simply because of the perceived solidarity and size of the Religious Right, there were many allegations of voter fraud in the liberal blogosphere from when Ohio was made "green" to when the recount in Ohio was done.

In reality, it was just a controversial and ideological president whose opponents' hatred neutralized their ability to come up with their own ideas (nevermind that the country was too deep into the president's policy to do anything different) and as a result, a president that should have lost by 3 million votes and 30 EVs won by the same margin. Make 30 EVs into 130 EVs and you get the 2012 election. 
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