You Cannot Win An Election With Strong Disapprovals Like This

[Secretary Polnut]

How is there any real argument here - there's a whole lot of 'duh' in there.

[Wonkish1]

How is there any real argument here - there's a whole lot of 'duh' in there.

What are you referring to?

[Secretary Polnut]

The issues around confidence, the market (ie the people behind it)

[Wonkish1]

The issues around confidence, the market (ie the people behind it)

Again as I've pointed out before confidence really isn't the factor that people think it is. Unless destruction occurs to the fundamentals, confidence indicators don't have much affect. And actually they are very contrarian. The further they fall the more it is a sign to buy because confidence itself can't overcome the fundamentals of an economy. The consensus in the minds of the public always way overplays its hand.

[Secretary Polnut]

I agree with BOTH of you, try to deal .... I think the fact that the economy still manages to survive despite the doom-sayers is testament to that...

[Wonkish1]

I agree with BOTH of you, try to deal .... I think the fact that the economy still manages to survive despite the doom-sayers is testament to that...

Well of course it does. The vast majority of consumer spending can't be delayed that much. People have to eat. People have to put gas in their car if they are going to be able to make it to work. People can't delay fixing a problem in their car for very long. People can't put off fixing the roof indefinitely. This is a point that Buffett has spent quite a bit of time on over the last few years. So all those people that pull back, save more, and have a balance sheet that is improving because of that, eventually have to go out and engage in some consumption. That is why the "never ending deflationary spiral" theory is a myth.

Oh and by the way contrary to what some Keynesians like Krugman would say, savings is not a problem. When you save money in lets say in a savings account that money goes to A) bolster the reserves of banks bettering their financial position and B) issue more credit to other businesses and people that do need to make a capital investment. All the while your personal balance sheet is improving so that when you do have to make a larger purchase down the road you're in a much better position to do so. Eventually as the economy improves you delay the purchases less and less.

[Secretary Polnut]

I'm not an economic ideologue - I want to know what works, not what a bunch of navel gazers think it should work.

If there's a Monetarist-backed idea that has a proven record of delivering what is required.... fine, if there's a Keynesian idea that delivers what is required... equally fine. 

Sometimes you need to spend money, sometimes you can get others to spend theirs... which is why economic theory sent me around the wall during my Undergrad and my Masters... and why my PhD will avoid theory like the plague.

[Wonkish1]

I'm not an economic ideologue - I want to know what works, not what a bunch of navel gazers think it should work.

If there's a Monetarist-backed idea that has a proven record of delivering what is required.... fine, if there's a Keynesian idea that delivers what is required... equally fine. 

Sometimes you need to spend money, sometimes you can get others to spend theirs... which is why economic theory sent me around the wall during my Undergrad and my Masters... and why my PhD will avoid theory like the plague.

I definitely wouldn't consider myself an economic ideologue either. Ideology is not what sent me off to learn about economics. I went to go learn about economics and then when I came back some would accuse me of ideology and others wouldn't(particularly those that are also well versed in econ and see me as a pretty fair guy).

You may be surprised by how much even Austrians and Keynesians agree over economics let alone Monetarists and Keynesians. A lot of econ is settled. Just like how everybody in the study of climate can tell you where rain comes from, but they are still an extremely long way away from being able to predict weather with a high degree of accuracy.

But just realize that the amount of econ that is settled is much, much more than what many politicians and bureaucrats would like to admit.

[Secretary Polnut]

I do know that... I also work with economics, and Government-related economics at that - and have also studied it at undergrad and graduate levels.

Granted not the same 'nature' of work you do...

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Well essentially he did I just summarized it. Saying that minor stock price decreases and bond price increases caused consumer confidence to deteriorate leading to less buying and the less hiring is essentially the same thing as the statement I provided above except the one above is a summary position.

That is actually a poor summary of my argument. I did say that bad stock market news could further undermine economic confidence by feeding back in to a pre-existing panic/misery loop, and I said that the debt debate undermined confidence that our political system's ability to function.

But I didn't say the stock market "decreases" (I would call the DJI dropping more than 450 pointsin a single day more than a "decrease", but I digress) were what caused hiring to freeze. What I argued caused hiring to freeze was employers fearing that a financial crisis would be triggered by a failure to raise the debt ceiling. People were so scared that all hell was about to break loose, and it created a dark and unnecessary cloud over economic activity that month.

Now, as this thread has shown, you are free to disagree with all of that, but you aren't free to misrepresent it via a bad summary. You're entitled to your own set of opinions, but not your own set of facts.

Well then sorry, but that was what appeared to be your argument.

No, that is what you misrepresented it as.  You seem to be deluded that you are making others look fooloish.  But its you, with you inability to follow arguments, that is the fool.

I realize "Romney: Occupy Wall Street is not the way to go" has become a terrible thread that needs to be buried, but reviving this other terrible thread is not the way to go.