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Author Topic: NE: Public Policy Polling: Obama not Competitive except in 1st and 2nd  (Read 1365 times)
mondale84
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« on: October 06, 2011, 06:14:07 pm »
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"Barack Obama has no chance of winning Nebraska next year.  His approval rating in the state is 35% with 61% of voters disapproving of him.

The action in Nebraska is at the Congressional District level though and there Obama has some hope- although not necessarily where you might expect it.After he won the 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote in 2008 Republican redistricters moved more Democratic friendly territory from that district into the 1st and shifted more GOP friendly territory from the 1st into the 2nd.

That move is having the impact Republicans hoped it would in the 2nd district- Romney leads Obama 50-42 there and Perry has a 48-44 advantage as well.  But in a finding that can certainly go into the 'unintended consequences' file Obama is now up 45-44 on Romney in the new 1st District and leads Perry by a 47-41 margin. Now it's important to note that the margin of error for the numbers in each of these individual Congressional districts is pretty high, but still, Obama would be trailing Romney in both the 1st and 2nd districts under the old lines."

Statewide:

38-51 Obama vs. Romney
41-48 Obama vs. Perry
37-47 Obama vs. Paul
41-48 Obama vs. Gingrich
41-49 Obama vs. Bachmann

1st CD:

45-44 Obama vs. Romney
47-41 Obama vs. Perry
43-39 Obama vs. Paul
48-40 Obama vs. Gingrich
47-42 Obama vs. Bachmann

2nd CD:

42-50 Obama vs. Romney
44-48 Obama vs. Perry
42-47 Obama vs. Paul
45-48 Obama vs. Gingrich
45-50 Obama vs. Bachmann

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1006.pdf
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benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2011, 06:19:02 pm »
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Why is Obama doing better in the 1st than in the 2nd?  Did Nebraska renumber or something?
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2011, 06:30:31 pm »
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Those numbers look rather good for Nebraska.
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2011, 06:35:52 pm »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2011, 06:37:37 pm »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2011, 06:39:29 pm by floridarepub »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2011, 06:53:15 pm »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.
Tell that to jmfcst.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2011, 07:07:38 pm »
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41-49 Obama vs. Bachmann

*facepalm*

Nebraska is crazy
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2011, 07:21:13 pm »
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McCain beat Obama by 15%, so the statewide numbers are phenomenal for Obama.
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2011, 08:50:25 pm »
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Omaha is growing, helping Obama, and making it more like Texas (i.e., it will be close in polling, but all undecided voters will break for the GOP).

He probably won't win the CD this time around against Romney.
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2011, 08:59:27 pm »
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Omaha is growing, helping Obama, and making it more like Texas (i.e., it will be close in polling, but all undecided voters will break for the GOP).

He probably won't win the CD this time around against Romney.
Do you think there's a chance that Nebraska could be a blue state someday?
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2011, 09:02:32 pm »
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Omaha is growing, helping Obama, and making it more like Texas (i.e., it will be close in polling, but all undecided voters will break for the GOP).

He probably won't win the CD this time around against Romney.
Do you think there's a chance that Nebraska could be a blue state someday?
In a Romney vs. Schweitzer scenario it could certainly flip.  To hold it, the Democrats would have to shift to a more populist approach.

From what I understand, the west (plains and mountain west) are tolerant of economic leftism.  It just needs to be wrapped in social conservatism (gun rights, etc.) to become palpable.
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King
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2011, 09:18:12 pm »
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Omaha is growing, helping Obama, and making it more like Texas (i.e., it will be close in polling, but all undecided voters will break for the GOP).

He probably won't win the CD this time around against Romney.
Do you think there's a chance that Nebraska could be a blue state someday?

It already is. Wink

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TXMichael
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2011, 09:27:14 pm »
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Is there any news on whether or not the state is moving ahead in returning to a winner take all electoral vote allocation?  I haven't read anything recently on the topic
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2011, 10:58:48 pm »
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Why is Obama doing better in the 1st than in the 2nd?  Did Nebraska renumber or something?

Redistricting. Romney would have a lead in both districts of eastern Nebraska  without redistricting, but the state legislature apparently loaded some very D-leaning areas into NE-01 and some very R-leaning areas into NE-02.

NE-03 remains the surest vote for any Republican, and NE-02 is still competitive.

The Republican nominee will be in deep trouble if either district of eastern Nebraska is competitive for the President.
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2011, 12:08:45 am »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.
Tell that to jmfcst.
anyone with historical knowledge of POTUS reelection bids knows that in a new recession, Obama's numbers are going to fall another 10-15 points over the next 13 months...you can take it to the bank
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2011, 12:15:29 am »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.
Tell that to jmfcst.
anyone with historical knowledge of POTUS reelection bids knows that in a new recession, Obama's numbers are going to fall another 10-15 points over the next 13 months...you can take it to the bank
Yes, yes, we know how badly you want this economy to suffer so you can get Cain elected.  There's no need to reiterate that.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2011, 03:54:58 am »

Hmm, I had to think which candidate I should enter to the database ... Tongue

They didn't poll Obama vs. Cain, who is leading the primary in the state.

Gingrich was second in the primary, but currently he has no chance to win the nomination.

So I went with Romney - who was third in the primary poll.
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2011, 08:17:11 am »
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You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.
Tell that to jmfcst.
anyone with historical knowledge of POTUS reelection bids knows that in a new recession, Obama's numbers are going to fall another 10-15 points over the next 13 months...you can take it to the bank

Republicans lose the next Presidential election and their House majority if they are seen at all culpable in any Double-Dip. All that the GOP offers is permanent suffering of the masses on behalf of people who think that the working man is less than fully human. Trickle-down economics goes out of style when it is shown to be a catastrophic failure. The GOP dream is of people being in hock to loan sharks who exploit every normal desire and every predictable need. 
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memphis
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2011, 08:19:36 am »
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And we gained 100,000 jobs last month. Not phenomenal, but not too shabby either.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2011, 08:34:27 am »
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And we gained 100,000 jobs last month. Not phenomenal, but not too shabby either.

half of which was returning strikers that went on strike last month....so the average over the last two months is 50k/month.  I wish Obama well on the speaking circuit.
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2011, 09:13:46 am »
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And we gained 100,000 jobs last month. Not phenomenal, but not too shabby either.

half of which was returning strikers that went on strike last month....so the average over the last two months is 50k/month.  I wish Obama well on the speaking circuit.
Which is true, except that it kills the 0 jobs last month meme.
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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2011, 09:34:29 am »
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And we gained 100,000 jobs last month. Not phenomenal, but not too shabby either.

And not moving the market as much as I expected.  Sad
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memphis
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2011, 09:46:06 am »
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July and August have been revised upward as well

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/07/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?cnn=yes&hpt=hp_t2
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2011, 10:09:28 am »
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Any idea what happened in May to f**k things up?

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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2011, 10:49:58 am »
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half of which was returning strikers that went on strike last month....so the average over the last two months is 50k/month.  I wish Obama well on the speaking circuit.

If they count as jobs lost when they go on strike then they have to count as jobs gained when they return. So if this month isn't as good as reported then previous months weren't as bad as reported. Can't have it both ways.
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