What is Romney's best shot on this map?

[Jacobtm]

Below is a 272-266 Obama win.

Every state that voted for Obama in '08 by less than his national margin is given to Republicans, and vice-versa.

If Republicans are going to win, they're probably going to win back all the states I've given them here, and they need to win only 1 more. Which would it be, assuming Romney is the candidate?

[tmthforu94]

New Hampshire would certainly be Romney's best bet - at this point, I'd consider him favored to win there.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

NH or NV.

[Roemerista]

I would guess right now, NH. It is essentially his new "home state."

[Torie]

272-266 is missing an electoral vote. In any event, that Virginia thing. You see the Pubbie problem assuming the count is otherwise accurate?  If Virginia goes Obama, Mittens carrying both Wisconsin and NH is not quite enough. 

[Yelnoc]

New Hampshire or Nevada.  New Hampshire because of the "home state effect" (which may not play very well in New Hampshire with Romney- we will see).  Nevada because of the horrible economy.

Torie makes a good point.  Virginia is no sure thing for Romney.  Though he does need to win it if he is going to win the election.  The other combinations (NH, NV, CO being the most likely, IMO) will be more difficulty to achieve.

PS
According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

[NHI]

Romney takes NH, NV, CO and maybe PA and IA.

[cavalcade]

New Hampshire would certainly be Romney's best bet - at this point, I'd consider him favored to win there.

[King]

New Hampshire I guess.  He's a versatile candidate, though, and can work his way in any state.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Like others I gotta say New Hampshire or Nevada.

I haven't seen much polling from Iowa

[Eraserhead]

I'll be brave and say Michigan.

[© tweed]

DC

[Fritz]

See my other thread discussing this...

It will all come down to New Hampshire.

[justW353]

I think NH and maybe NV would go to Romney before Virginia.

[Politico]

Below is a 272-266 Obama win.

Every state that voted for Obama in '08 by less than his national margin is given to Republicans, and vice-versa.

If Republicans are going to win, they're probably going to win back all the states I've given them here, and they need to win only 1 more. Which would it be, assuming Romney is the candidate?

With a stagnant or declining economy the map is far more likely to resemble something like this rather than that:

In other words, the question is not how Romney is going to win a close election, but how many states is Obama going to lose if the economy does not unexpectedly bounce back next year? If we have a double-dip recession, especially if it is announced in late summer, the only electoral votes Obama is definitely assured would be Hawaii and DC. It could get THAT bad...

[Wonkish1]

Order: New Hampshire will go GOP easily given the switch of Dem registration to GOP registration in the state since 08. It will go red before Virginia will and that is no matter who is the candidate.
Then Nevada
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Michigan

[Mr. Morden]

According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

You're correct.  Torie's math is flawed. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

You're correct.  Torie's math is flawed. 

To explain it simply (for Torie)

The Electoral College is based on 100 Senators, 435 Representatives and 3 Electoral College Votes for the District of Columbia.

The concensus is probably correct that New Hampshire is the best bet for Romney

[Mr. Morden]

According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

You're correct.  Torie's math is flawed.  

To explain it simply (for Torie)

The Electoral College is based on 100 Senators, 435 Representatives and 3 Electoral College Votes for the District of Columbia.

Alaska and Hawaii weren't states yet when Torie learned this stuff in school.  Hence his confusion.

[CARLHAYDEN]

According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

You're correct.  Torie's math is flawed.  

To explain it simply (for Torie)

The Electoral College is based on 100 Senators, 435 Representatives and 3 Electoral College Votes for the District of Columbia.

Alaska and Hawaii weren't states yet when Torie learned this stuff in school.  Hence his confusion.

If that is true, then the District of Columbia had no Electoral College votes then either.

Also what Torie said was "272-266 is missing an electoral vote."  To me that would imply that he believes there should be 539 Electoral College votes, as he asserts one is missing from the 272-266 formula.

[Mr. Morden]

If that is true, then the District of Columbia had no Electoral College votes then either.

Also what Torie said was "272-266 is missing an electoral vote."  To me that would imply that he believes there should be 539 Electoral College votes, as he asserts one is missing from the 272-266 formula.

I was joking. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

That was obvious.

When you began you asserted that “Torie learned this stuff…”, it was pretty obviousl

[pbrower2a]

Romney takes NH, NV, CO and maybe PA and IA.

New Hampshire so far. The Republicans did badly in statewide elections in Colorado and Nevada in what was a great year (2010) for Republicans. But it will be tough. If New Hampshire is at  all in doubt, then the Obama machine will practically colonize the state with paid staff as it did in Nevada in 2008. Pennsylvania might not be so suitable for such treatment if it is close.

One thing is certain: Mitt Romney will have no problem winning the GOP base unless it threatens to go Third Party, still a possibility. It hates President Obama almost enough to prefer Mortimer J. Snerd. He will not need to balance the ticket with a Southern reactionary to win. If he does end up with someone like James DeMint or Saxby Chambliss he will remind Obama voters of what the GOP really stands for and he will energize the Democratic base.

Mitt Romney will have to force President Obama to defend at least one or two of the states in red at the expense of any chance of winning five or so other states. The GOP pattern of victory in 2000 and 2004 against any liberal must be achieved for any Republican to win the White House. Mitt Romney must take Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia completely out of the picture very early and then force the President to defend everything short of perfection.

 

 

[Wonkish1]

Romney takes NH, NV, CO and maybe PA and IA.

New Hampshire so far. The Republicans did badly in statewide elections in Colorado and Nevada in what was a great year (2010) for Republicans. But it will be tough. If New Hampshire is at  all in doubt, then the Obama machine will practically colonize the state with paid staff as it did in Nevada in 2008.

I don't quite get why some of the Red avatars think that the GOP wont have serious money at their disposal as well.

Right now a lot of money is sitting out until a nominee gets picked, but if your thinking the GOP nominee wont have at least $500 million at their disposal your being a little naive.

They can just as easily colonize the state in staff as Obama can.

[Torie]

According to the EV calculator, 272-266 is correct (out of 538).

You're correct.  Torie's math is flawed. 

Yes, I forgot for some reason that you can have a tied electoral college vote. I'm losing it.