Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 30, 2016, 05:07:22 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | |-+  1856, 1884, 1960, 2008
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: 1856, 1884, 1960, 2008  (Read 694 times)
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 721


View Profile
« on: January 16, 2015, 05:35:45 pm »
Ignore

Since the Democratic vs Republican elections started, a Democratic candidate won an open seat election only four times: 1856, 1884, 1960 and 2008. An average of one in every 40 years.

What is the importance of this information? I don't know. I am not saying that Republicans have structural advantage in open seat elections, that they have an advantage in 2016 because of the past.

Only a fun fact.
Logged
Atlas Before Light
ssuperflash
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3505


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2015, 12:02:59 pm »
Ignore

Since the Democratic vs Republican elections started, a Democratic candidate won an open seat election only four times: 1856, 1884, 1960 and 2008. An average of one in every 40 years.

What is the importance of this information? I don't know. I am not saying that Republicans have structural advantage in open seat elections, that they have an advantage in 2016 because of the past.

Only a fun fact.
Basically, Democrats do better when they have a incumbent they can criticize. Makes sense and isn't a huge deal.
Logged

God help us if Trump wins.

TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 287


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2015, 12:44:42 pm »
Ignore

Another way 2008 is an outlier...the D's won comfortably as opposed to razor-thin wins in 1884 and 1960. Outside of that election, it seems big Democratic presidential victories only come in races with incumbent presidents in them.
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 721


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2015, 08:05:03 am »
Ignore

Since the Democratic vs Republican elections started, a Democratic candidate won an open seat election only four times: 1856, 1884, 1960 and 2008. An average of one in every 40 years.

What is the importance of this information? I don't know. I am not saying that Republicans have structural advantage in open seat elections, that they have an advantage in 2016 because of the past.

Only a fun fact.
Basically, Democrats do better when they have a incumbent they can criticize. Makes sense and isn't a huge deal.

Why?
Why do the Democrats need to be incumbent or to run against an unpopular incumbente to win?



There were 40 Democratic vs. Republican presidential elections
17 Democratic wins and 23 Republican wins

The number of open seat elections was 16
4 Democratic wins and 12 Republican wins

The number of elections in which one incumbent was running for reelection was 24
13 Democratic wins and 11 Republican wins

There was a huge advantage for Republicans in open seat races
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines