The NY GOP could have a decent challenger to Gillibrand

[HST1948]

Lol! Its sad when an obscure upstate county executive (and I lived in her county for years- and yes it is obscure even though it contains Rochester) is considered to be a "decent challenger" for state wide office. The Best part of the article though, is when they call her a "prodigious fundraiser" citing her $335,694 in the bank... meanwhile Gillibrand has well over $5 million before the September filing deadline.   

Also just another note, the general rule of politics in NY for both parties (and eespecially the GOP) is: DON'T NOMINATE SOMEONE FROM UPSTATE (Gillibrand obviously being the exception because she was appointed and had been a senator for two years before she faced a state wide election) .

I agree that she would probably do better than DioGuardi, but that's not saying much. 

[HST1948]

I think she will run against Kathy Hochul.

She would be a good challenger (for the republicans) against Kathy Hochul.  I don't know how much of Monroe County that her new district will include though.

[HST1948]

I think she will run against Kathy Hochul.

Do we even know if Hochul's district will still be around? Or have legislators decided to erase Slaughter's district instead?

I haven't heard too much lately but I believe that the current plan is to keep a district for Hochul and try to make her district safer by giving her the Niagara County parts that Slaughter had.  What I guess the general consensus is that there will be an upstate Republican eliminated along with a downstate democrat.  The most likely republican to get the ax would be Burkle (she deserves it... honestly one of the dumbest people I have ever met... and I'm not saying that because I disagree with her policies... It's because I've met her and had to deal with her).  I don't know how Turner's victory has changed the redistricting plans. 

So... in answer to your question... I am fairly confident that Hochul will have a district in 2012 and probably one that is more favorable to her.  I don't know exactly what areas it would cover but my best guess is parts of Erie county.  If it doesn't include any of Monroe county I don't see a reason why Brooks would move to run against her in a district that doesn't include any of her base. If the district ends up including Monroe county it looks like Brooks would be a decent candidate for the GOP to put up against Hochul.   

[HST1948]

The GOP should get Carl Paladino to run for the Hochul seat. Never would have lost it in the first place.

He isn't winning if he runs. Can you image the attack ads from the DNC?

Agreed.  What you have to understand about western new york politics is that we are very parochial.  We voted for PDino because he was from Buffalo and would "represent us in Albany" "unlike some suit from downstate".  The difference is he was running in a state wide race against someone from downstate, if he ran against Hochul he would be running against another upstate, wnyer so his novelty as a "local son" really has no effect.