Reassessing the keys

[Bacon King]

The Keys are mostly bollocks.

That said, however, Lichtman actually has fairly strict methodology regarding when a specific key applies or not.

Key 7 is true; the "major policy change" doesn't have to be a change the public likes. Key 9 is false, because those things don't count as "major" scandals; even Iran-Contra didn't trigger this. Key 10 doesn't apply just because we're still in Afghanistan or whatever, for this one to be true there basically has to be a major and sudden failure- think Bay of Pigs or the Iran Hostage Crisis (the Vietnam War counted in '68 because of the Tet Offensive). Key 11 is true, because killing Osama Bin Laden counts as a major success- public recognition, or whatever, doesn't matter for Lichtman's criteria here.  Also, Key 12 and 13 are both false in 2012.

For the curious: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZvLsCOb-gU8C&lpg=PA42&ots=HRBa-cKL2H&dq=lichtman%20test%20key%2011&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false

[Bacon King]

Key 12 is really subjective. In my view, Obama is not as charsmatic as he was in 2008, but he is still charismatic.

Lichtman's methodology is really weird with the charisma keys. In his analysis, the following met the conditions of being "charismatic or national heroes":

Ulysses S. Grant, in 1868 and 1872
James G. Blaine, in 1884
William Jennings Bryan, in 1896 and 1900 (but not 1908)
Teddy Roosevelt, in 1904
FDR, in all four of his elections
Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956
JFK, in 1960
Reagan, in 1980 and 1984

and that's it.

I thought he had given Obama the "challenger charisma" key in 2008, but I checked just now and he actually didn't. At any rate, if Obama didn't get that key in 2008 he certainly won't get it now.