Reassessing the keys

[Averroës Nix]

I've underlined the non-ambiguous conclusions.

•    KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

•    KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)

•    KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

•    KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE OR FALSE) The opportunity exists, if someone who can self-fund decides to have a go of it.

•    KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE OR FALSE) Still unclear

•    KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

•    KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

•    KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

•    KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE OR FALSE) - I'm not sure that F2F or Solyndra are important enough to qualify as "major" scandals; I'd welcome a correction if Lichtman's definition makes it clear that they do

•    KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE OR FALSE) Iraq and Afghanistan may qualify, especially if we see an uptick in combat deaths in either theater. Also, the possibility of a major terrorist attack occuring in the United States.

•    KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE OR FALSE) Killing Osama may qualify

•    KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE OR FALSE) What is Lichtman's definition of "charisma"?

•    KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE OR FALSE) Again, what is Lichtman's definition of "charisma"? I doubt that Perry or Romney would qualify, but i wouldn't make the call without knowing Lichtman's criteria.


Obama holds four keys unambiguously: 2, 3, 7, 8
Obama does not hold two keys 1 or 6.
Whether or not Obama holds the remaining six keys depends on future events, our interpretation of past events, and the definitions of certain terms: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

[Averroës Nix]

I think personal favorability ratings are the most objective proxy we can come up with for 12 & 13.

I recall that Lichtman responded to Nate Silver's criticism of the Keys by complaining that Silver didn't bother reading Lichtman's explanations. It's possibly that Lichtman is just a charlatan trying to sell more books, but without more information I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and refrain from making a call with respect to these Keys.