Reassessing the keys

[NCeriale]

Changes in bold, in the wake of Solyndra and the impending double dip:

Outlining the Keys:

•    KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

•    KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)

•    KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

•    KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)

•    KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (FALSE)

•    KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

•    KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE) I really disagree with this, health care reform is a net negative

•    KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

•    KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (FALSE - Solyndra, Fast and Furious)

•    KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)

•    KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

•    KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

•    KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

That leaves us with 6-7 keys going against Obama, depending on how we judge health-care reform. I don't like the odds in this case