2006 Senate Seats

[Keystone Phil]

you know, when you consider the AFL-CIO endorsed Specter and the DSCC did not give Hoeffel that much money, it is a major accomplishment that he topped 40%. Far better than Specter's last opponent. Therefore he's clearly a much better candidate than Phil will admit.

Far better than Specter's last opponent? His last opponent received 38% of the vote so Hoeffel didn't do "far better."

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.

Hey Smash, even if Santorum is more conservative than 2000, why are his approval ratings some of the highest and disapproval ratings lowest? You make it seem like his conservativism will hurt him so why isn't it hurting him. Santorum's approval ratings are always ignored by Dems when they try to make their case about the 2006 race.

As for Bush supporting Specter, yes it was done because Bush thought it would hurt his chances. In reality, I don't think there would be a big difference. Liberals came out to vote against Bush anyway. If Toomey was the nominee, that wouldn't cause more of them to come out.

As for Toomey's chances being worse than Specter's chances, I can agree with that and so would anyone else. However, I still believe that Toomey could have won.

[Keystone Phil]

Good points Smash.  It seems like PA Conservatives are the most whiny and it will kill them in the long run.  Had it not been for Bush/Santorum rescuing Specter, Toomey would have won and Hoeffel would have in turn made mincemeat out of him as the Northeast Times eluded to.  The elft would have turned out even greater for the Dem ticket and I do not see many Kerry-Toomey crossovers except in maybe the Lehigh Valley, but it wouldn't be enough to swing the state.  Had Toomey won, the AFL-CIO would have definitely backed Hoeffel and the DSCC would have infused massive amounts of $$$$.     

How would Hoeffel make micemeat out of Toomey? Put your biased aside and look at this state. You wouldn't have seen a bigger turnout for liberals just because Toomey was on the ticket. If Toomey had won the nomination, I agree that the AFL-CIO and DSCC would have put more money into this race but just as 2006 will prove, that won't be enough.

[Smash255]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.

Hey Smash, even if Santorum is more conservative than 2000, why are his approval ratings some of the highest and disapproval ratings lowest? You make it seem like his conservativism will hurt him so why isn't it hurting him. Santorum's approval ratings are always ignored by Dems when they try to make their case about the 2006 race.

As for Bush supporting Specter, yes it was done because Bush thought it would hurt his chances. In reality, I don't think there would be a big difference. Liberals came out to vote against Bush anyway. If Toomey was the nominee, that wouldn't cause more of them to come out.

As for Toomey's chances being worse than Specter's chances, I can agree with that and so would anyone else. However, I still believe that Toomey could have won.

You keep quoting that Santorum has some of the highest approval ratings in the state, but you don't show any proof of that.  Awhile back I saw two different polls, (wish I could find them) one poll had Santorum''s approval in the mid-upper 40's another one had him at 53 I believe.

Point about Toomey, is I just don't see how anyone as Conservative as Toomey would have gotten much in the way of split ticket votes.  Thats basically the main reason why Specter won because of the large number of moderates & Democrats that voted Kerry/Specter, that group is NOT going to vote Kerry/Toomey.  Now some in that group did vote Gore/Santorum as you mentioned earlier, however as I pointed out Santorum in 2000 & especially the campaign he ran in 2000 was MUCH MORE moderate than he is now, and MUCH MORE Moderate than Toomey.  Santorum was able to garner those split ticket voters in 2000, by running a more moderate campaign.  Toomey was running a very Conservative campaign (which is what Santorum will most likley run in 06, well because he simply can't run as a moderate anymore).  The factr Toomey would of ran as a Conservative would have hurt him with the moderate and Democratic split ticket voters that voted for Santorum in 2000 & Specter in this election (& that same group will also hurt Santorum in 06)

[Keystone Phil]

You keep quoting that Santorum has some of the highest approval ratings in the state, but you don't show any proof of that.  Awhile back I saw two different polls, (wish I could find them) one poll had Santorum''s approval in the mid-upper 40's another one had him at 53 I believe.

I have proof. From http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml It's from August but it's the most recent one taken.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

 
                     App       Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   52      30      18

 

Point about Toomey, is I just don't see how anyone as Conservative as Toomey would have gotten much in the way of split ticket votes.  Thats basically the main reason why Specter won because of the large number of moderates & Democrats that voted Kerry/Specter, that group is NOT going to vote Kerry/Toomey.  Now some in that group did vote Gore/Santorum as you mentioned earlier, however as I pointed out Santorum in 2000 & especially the campaign he ran in 2000 was MUCH MORE moderate than he is now, and MUCH MORE Moderate than Toomey.  Santorum was able to garner those split ticket voters in 2000, by running a more moderate campaign.  Toomey was running a very Conservative campaign (which is what Santorum will most likley run in 06, well because he simply can't run as a moderate anymore).  The factr Toomey would of ran as a Conservative would have hurt him with the moderate and Democratic split ticket voters that voted for Santorum in 2000 & Specter in this election (& that same group will also hurt Santorum in 06)

How was Santorum much more moderate? You keep saying this but show me no proof (sound familiar ). Seriously though, I'd like to know how he was "more moderate." In my opinion, he's always been the same conservative that he is now.

As for Toomey, I don't think you understand the point that this states likes conservatives. The approve of Santorum and Toomey is from the same wing of the GOP as Santorum.

But for argument's sake, let's use the BRTD logic that Kerry voters would automatically go against Toomey. In that case, how would Toomey get crushed? Kerry in PA - 51%   Bush in  PA - 49%.  Now Hoeffel would get all the Kerry voters (in this scenario) and Toomey would get the Bush voters. 51-49 is "making mincemeat" out of the other candidate? And remember...this scenario wouldn't have been likely to happen. Many Kerry voters (especially in western PA) like to vote Democrat for President pretty much all the time but they vote Republican in local and statewide offices.