Young man vote.

[Username MechaRFK]

Are they somewhat conservative as a voting group? The reason I'm asking this is the fact I went onto Wikipedia and read a summary on the presidential campaign of George Wallace back in 1968 that caught surprise for me. One paragraph states that Wallace had the support of the young men. I haven't check to see other past elections to see young men results but what's the political ideology that this group holds together? I find the Wallace thing ironic since most of the youth oppose the Vietnam War and they despise president Johnson, so was this more of a blue collar vs white collar war between the hippies that supported McCarthy and the blue collars that went the 180 route and supported Wallace?

[freepcrusher]

Obama won the under 30 vote by a 32 point margin. I'm guessing he won the under 30 male group by around a 60-40 margin.

[phk]

I could see them voting for Bush in 2000.

[Wonkish1]

Those older than about 25 which vote GOP. Those under the age of 25 will vote slightly for Obama. But overall turnout among the younger vote will drop by an extremely large margin relative to last election.

Many people comment that Obama will have his base show back up. Not in the youth vote it wont. A huge portion of his base in that category is disheartened and will revert back to their apathetic ways.

[Minnesota Mike]

Those older than about 25 which vote GOP. Those under the age of 25 will vote slightly for Obama. But overall turnout among the younger vote will drop by an extremely large margin relative to last election.

Many people comment that Obama will have his base show back up. Not in the youth vote it wont. A huge portion of his base in that category is disheartened and will revert back to their apathetic ways.

It is a myth that there was a huge jump in young voters in 2008 compared to earlier elections. In 2004 17% of the electorate was age 18-29 according to exit polls, in 2008 18% of the electorate was age 18-29.  It would not surprise me at all to see the youth vote revert back to 2004 levels but that is not a drop of an "extremely large margin".

[Sbane]

It could be more than that if the 30+ crowd keep voting at high rates while young people become apathetic again. I doubt it will happen like that though. Obama might not get the large margin again though. But I think the 65+ crowd will "trend" towards him.

[Wonkish1]

Those older than about 25 which vote GOP. Those under the age of 25 will vote slightly for Obama. But overall turnout among the younger vote will drop by an extremely large margin relative to last election.

Many people comment that Obama will have his base show back up. Not in the youth vote it wont. A huge portion of his base in that category is disheartened and will revert back to their apathetic ways.

I'm sorry, not calling you wrong here, but I'm pretty sure that I've read exit polling showing the youth vote increased at least 25% from its previous numbers in 08 relative to previous years. Now I could be wrong which would of course negate some of my post above, but I'll just say I'm skeptical that the youth vote only increased by 1% of the electorate(or an approximate increase of 5% within the group).
It is a myth that there was a huge jump in young voters in 2008 compared to earlier elections. In 2004 17% of the electorate was age 18-29 according to exit polls, in 2008 18% of the electorate was age 18-29.  It would not surprise me at all to see the youth vote revert back to 2004 levels but that is not a drop of an "extremely large margin".

[LastVoter]

Also possible that people who are in early 30's would be voting in the same patterns as those in the 20's.

[Wonkish1]

Also possible that people who are in early 30's would be voting in the same patterns as those in the 20's.

I can assure you that those in the early 30s are going to be moving way more to the right. Same for older 20s.

Teens and younger 20s still will likely being voting with Obama, but to a much lesser extent. Just keep in mind it is the youth vote of Obama's coalition that is probably one of the most likely pieces to crumble in comparison to the others.

[Wonkish1]

Also possible that people who are in early 30's would be voting in the same patterns as those in the 20's.

I can assure you that those in the early 30s are going to be moving way more to the right. Same for older 20s.

Teens and younger 20s still will likely being voting with Obama, but to a much lesser extent. Just keep in mind it is the youth vote of Obama's coalition that is probably one of the most likely pieces to crumble in comparison to the others.

Well i mean the previous elections 18-29 group, so 22-33 in 2012.

Oh I'm sorry you mean to say that 20s voters are going to be voting more like 30s voters in 08 not that 30s voters are going to be voting more like 20s voters in 08, is that what you mean?

[LastVoter]

Also possible that people who are in early 30's would be voting in the same patterns as those in the 20's.

I can assure you that those in the early 30s are going to be moving way more to the right. Same for older 20s.

Teens and younger 20s still will likely being voting with Obama, but to a much lesser extent. Just keep in mind it is the youth vote of Obama's coalition that is probably one of the most likely pieces to crumble in comparison to the others.

Well i mean the previous elections 18-29 group, so 22-33 in 2012.

Oh I'm sorry you mean to say that 20s voters are going to be voting more like 30s voters in 08 not that 30s voters are going to be voting more like 20s voters in 08, is that what you mean?

Ok that was confusing, but what I meant is how much more Republican would the voters who were 18-29 in 2008 vote.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

The national exit polls in 2008 (CNN)


White 18-29 (11%)
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

Black 18-29 (3%)
Obama 95%
McCain 4%
 
Latino 18-29 (3%)
Obama 76%
McCain 19%


18-24 (10%)
Obama 66%
McCain 32%
 
 
25-29 (8%)
Obama 66%
McCain 31%

There is no significant difference in the 18-24 and the 25-29 voting group.  However it is interesting to see Obama only win the white 18-29 vote with 54%