I can summarize this election in two sentences.

[© tweed]

If the election is about nation security, Bush will win.
If the election is about jobs, Kerry will win.

[California Dreamer]

...and what would lead to a Nader win?  

[© tweed]

...and what would lead to a Nader win?  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the election is about nation security, Bush will win.
If the election is about jobs, Kerry will win.

Unless between now and Nov. 2, 3 million people get jobs, I'd say that's pretty accurate.

[agcatter]

I can sum up this election in two words

ugly, nasty

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I can sum up this election in two words

ugly, nasty

So, what should the Vegas +/- be for number of riots that break out at polling places when they close?

[classical liberal]

The riots this time might be when the polls run out of ballots.

[Kghadial]

I think a "riot" is hard to define. If a Kerry voter slugs a Nader voter for being an idiot and a few other people join that fracas it wouldn't be a riot.

The over/under should be on the number of arrests made because of poll area violence

[CTguy]

...and what would lead to a Nader win?  

A typhoon that knocks out the entire country except for Seattle.

[ShapeShifter]

I totally AGREE.

This election is not about two man but issues...

Vote for A or B

A. National Security

B. Economy

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think a "riot" is hard to define. If a Kerry voter slugs a Nader voter for being an idiot and a few other people join that fracas it wouldn't be a riot.

The over/under should be on the number of arrests made because of poll area violence

I guarantee you there will be polling places where voters are lined up around the block when they close.  WHY people wait until the last minute to go is beyond me, but they are going to interpret this as the Republican machine trying to take away their vote, and Bush trying to "steal the election" all over again.  Especially in Florida.  Mix two parts resentment, two parts paranoia, and one part mob mentality, and you have the recipe for a riot (a large scale distrubance that requires law enforcement to quell).  Miami, Cleveland, Detroit, and Philadelphia are probably the most likely places, as they are all large inner cities in highly contested states.

I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but I would not be at all surprised.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think a "riot" is hard to define. If a Kerry voter slugs a Nader voter for being an idiot and a few other people join that fracas it wouldn't be a riot.

The over/under should be on the number of arrests made because of poll area violence

I guarantee you there will be polling places where voters are lined up around the block when they close.  WHY people wait until the last minute to go is beyond me, but they are going to interpret this as the Republican machine trying to take away their vote, and Bush trying to "steal the election" all over again.  Especially in Florida.  Mix two parts resentment, two parts paranoia, and one part mob mentality, and you have the recipe for a riot (a large scale distrubance that requires law enforcement to quell).  Miami, Cleveland, Detroit, and Philadelphia are probably the most likely places, as they are all large inner cities in highly contested states.

I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but I would not be at all surprised.

Voters "wait until the last minute" because they vote after they get home from work.  A lot of states close their polls at 7pm local, and many people can't feasibly get to the polls before 6.

[StevenNick]

"If the election is about jobs Kerry wins."

WTF does that even mean.  Democrats are always talking about jobs, as if jobs can be created by a wave of the magic Keynsian wand.

[Gustaf]

I can sum it up in 2 words: Kerry lost...