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Author Topic: Will any New Deal or Great Society programs exist in a decade?  (Read 1367 times)
LBJ Revivalist
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« on: October 10, 2011, 12:33:51 am »
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At the rate things are going I really don't think so. I think we're going to see a new Gilded Age.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2011, 01:42:24 am »
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At the rate things are going I really don't think so. I think we're going to see a new Gilded Age.

Well its the question of mathematics. I mean if you were to assume future entitlement spending as true liabilities like businesses do than the combined public debt(including those unfunded liabilities) isn't ~105% of GDP its around 250% of GDP and growing fast.

Now we can either be realists about it or we can be whiny b*tches about it.

I mean congress is sitting here arguing over a $100 billion a year of annual cuts in government spending. Meanwhile we've got approximately 2-3 years to figure out a way to cut $1 trillion dollars in annual government spending($10 trillion over 10 years). If that doesn't happen the number increases to $1.5 trillion for the next couple of years. If that doesn't happen within 5 years of today the number jumps to $2 trillion dollars that needs be cut annually(or $20 trillion over 10 years).

So as Europe is finding out now and Japan will also soon find out the promises made in the past just mathematically can't be kept. Period! Which means huge cuts for defense, entitlement programs, and public employees.

For those that say, "Well if we only got the economy moving again tax revenues would increase and the problem would solve itself". Yeah, NO! If the economy gets moving headline inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates. That would drive up short term treasury rates by huge amounts. And any gains in additional tax revenues all, but get wiped out by higher interest on the debt.

For those that say, "Well we just need to tax the wealthy more." Well even some of the most Draconian tax increases on wealthy Americans and small businesses would result in maybe $250 billion a year in revenue, and that assumes that such tax increases didn't decrease economic output when in actuality it would bring the United States to a screeching halt. To give you an idea as to how much taxes would have to rise(without any corresponding decrease in output) in order for you to come close to raising enough, tax rates for ALL Americans would have to rise about 15% across the board. And still that would just crash the economy and most of the "revenue gains" would be wiped out.

The fact is that world is going to see the dismantling of much of the European social welfare state over the next few years and hopefully the US public(and Dem politicians) realizes that they would rather keep some of it and cut seriously now vs. have to deal with what is happening in Europe down the road. And if they instead adhere to the old rule that only crisis can move politicians well then kiss goodbye to most of the government supports the American public rely on in about 8-10 years.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2011, 03:23:56 am by Wonkish1 »Logged
Wonkish1
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2011, 02:42:04 am »
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And I think the reality of all this is just too scary for the average Dem, Independent, or even Republican so they just choose to ignore it. Might as well just look the other way and hope it goes away because the consequences that are obvious when you look at the sheer severity of the problem is just too big to deal with.

But I'm here telling you that it isn't going away. It hasn't been going away for quite a long time now.

And Dems and their politicians don't realize that they aren't here arguing against Republicans they are defacto arguing against the future of their own party; against the compromises their future elected leaders will be forced to make!
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2011, 08:26:25 am »
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The above two posters parrot the absurd line that the destruction of the New Deal and Great Society is some kind of practical necessity.

However they have already largely been destroyed and we are clearly already in a new Gilded Age, LBJ-R.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2011, 08:33:10 am »
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The above two posters parrot the absurd line that the destruction of the New Deal and Great Society is some kind of practical necessity.

However they have already largely been destroyed and we are clearly already in a new Gilded Age, LBJ-R.

Well you may want to ignore the laws of mathematics, but that doesn't change the fact that what is going to happen is going to happen!
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2011, 08:37:05 am »
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Well you may want to ignore the laws of mathematics, but that doesn't change the fact that what is going to happen is going to happen!

It has already happened, Wank.  The tax rates have been kept destructively low for 30 years now.  Had we had proper 70%+ tax rates throughout that period, all would be well.  There is no practical difficulty here, only the problem that the owners have all the power.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2011, 08:49:09 am »
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Well you may want to ignore the laws of mathematics, but that doesn't change the fact that what is going to happen is going to happen!

It has already happened, Wank.  The tax rates have been kept destructively low for 30 years now.  Had we had proper 70%+ tax rates throughout that period, all would be well.  There is no practical difficulty here, only the problem that the owners have all the power.

Alright thanks for throwing yourself in the crazy bin, don't need to take you seriously for here on out.
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2011, 09:05:57 am »
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Well you may want to ignore the laws of mathematics, but that doesn't change the fact that what is going to happen is going to happen!

It has already happened, Wank.  The tax rates have been kept destructively low for 30 years now.  Had we had proper 70%+ tax rates throughout that period, all would be well.  There is no practical difficulty here, only the problem that the owners have all the power.

Alright thanks for throwing yourself in the crazy bin, don't need to take you seriously for here on out.

My dear sir, you are the one who has interjected a reverence for mathematics into this thread.  I merely pointed out that there is + as well as a - in mathematics of budgetary affairs.  The needed programs for economic health were defunded by your terrible Reagan, Bushes, and so forth.

One may simply fix the shortfalls (if there are any, which is quite dubious) by increasing the intake from the golden toilet bowl crowd.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2011, 09:12:36 am »
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My dear sir, you are the one who has interjected a reverence for mathematics into this thread.  I merely pointed out that there is + as well as a - in mathematics of budgetary affairs.  The needed programs for economic health were defunded by your terrible Reagan, Bushes, and so forth.

One may simply fix the shortfalls (if there are any, which is quite dubious) by increasing the intake from the golden toilet bowl crowd.

All I read is "I'm Opebo a crazy, wacked out ideologue and shill who couldn't argue his way out of a paper bag."

I hope you realize that what is about to go on in Europe and the US will really make you squirm and squeal.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2011, 09:20:25 am »
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Oh by the way, the safest bank in Europe according to the European stress tests was nationalized last yesterday and then 2 more early this morning got nationalized. The cost of Euro Bank recap alone will cost most of Europe a good chunk of its social welfare state. God knows they can't really issue really any more government debt(except for maybe Germany).


Update: Now you can add China moving to Recap their state owned banks today. I mean what a clusterf#*k.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2011, 10:03:40 am by Wonkish1 »Logged
opebo
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2011, 02:13:34 pm »
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I hope you realize that what is about to go on in Europe and the US will really make you squirm and squeal.

I'm quite inured to murder, and fully expect it at every turn, Wank.  The rich will kill and eat the poor, such has it ever been, and so shall it ever be.  We may squeal and squirm if we like, but it won't make a whit of difference.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2011, 02:41:03 pm »
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I hope you realize that what is about to go on in Europe and the US will really make you squirm and squeal.

I'm quite inured to murder, and fully expect it at every turn, Wank.  The rich will kill and eat the poor, such has it ever been, and so shall it ever be.  We may squeal and squirm if we like, but it won't make a whit of difference.





This guy might actually be less crazy than you are! LOL
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King
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2011, 02:41:58 pm »
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Wonkish, rather than write out those lengthy debate "responses," I highly suggest you save yourself (and us) some time by simply using the Libertas: Roll Eyes
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2011, 02:50:47 pm »
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I hope you realize that what is about to go on in Europe and the US will really make you squirm and squeal.

I'm quite inured to murder, and fully expect it at every turn, Wank.  The rich will kill and eat the poor, such has it ever been, and so shall it ever be.  We may squeal and squirm if we like, but it won't make a whit of difference.





This guy might actually be less crazy than you are! LOL

Sometimes the only morally trenchant reaction to reality is to go insane.

Mind you, I'm far from convinced that opebo is insane in an entirely admirable or responsible way, but him having gone off the deep end isn't itself exactly unreasonable on his part.
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2011, 09:02:42 pm »
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the programs for olds are politically untouchable. Social Security and Medicare will be funded, even if they have to get rid of NASA, NOAA, the CDC, FEMA, the State Department and the Coast Guard to do it.
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2011, 09:37:13 pm »
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Oh by the way, the safest bank in Europe according to the European stress tests was nationalized last yesterday and then 2 more early this morning got nationalized. The cost of Euro Bank recap alone will cost most of Europe a good chunk of its social welfare state. God knows they can't really issue really any more government debt(except for maybe Germany).


Update: Now you can add China moving to Recap their state owned banks today. I mean what a clusterf#*k.

It's a global financial crisis.  Some more socialized countries haven't done well and some more right wing countries haven't done well.  Some socialist European countries have done fine and their is no indication that they are eliminating their social welfare programs.  Where do you get this stuff?
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LBJ Revivalist
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2011, 07:14:01 am »
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the programs for olds are politically untouchable. Social Security and Medicare will be funded, even if they have to get rid of NASA, NOAA, the CDC, FEMA, the State Department and the Coast Guard to do it.

I love NASA but if keeping Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare meant getting rid of NASA, it'd be an easy decision. Now, the Defense Budget could definitely be reduced majorly. Not getting rid of the State Department--ridiculous--but I'm sure there's a lot of fat that could be trimmed from the defense establishment.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2011, 08:04:22 am »
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Oh by the way, the safest bank in Europe according to the European stress tests was nationalized last yesterday and then 2 more early this morning got nationalized. The cost of Euro Bank recap alone will cost most of Europe a good chunk of its social welfare state. God knows they can't really issue really any more government debt(except for maybe Germany).


Update: Now you can add China moving to Recap their state owned banks today. I mean what a clusterf#*k.

It's a global financial crisis.  Some more socialized countries haven't done well and some more right wing countries haven't done well.  Some socialist European countries have done fine and their is no indication that they are eliminating their social welfare programs.  Where do you get this stuff?

Well I can add. Of all of Europe Germany is sitting in the best position and even they are at 80% of debt to GDP. Right now the sovereign debt crisis is threatening to blow up their financial system. What you don't know is that the European financial system is 3 times more levered to GDP then we were in 08.

Now I want you to think about this once. Iceland went into 2008 at only 38% Debt to GDP. How is it possible that a year later they were bankrupt? Well they had 300,000 people. About $80 billion in GDP and about $1 trillion in bank assets(1400% of GDP). When the losses started occurring the sheer size of them meant that Iceland couldn't keep their financial system afloat without huge loans from the IMF.

Today, the European financial system is levered at 300% of GDP(in 08 ours was 100%), and they are primarily holding sovereign debt. So the countries of Europe are now stepping up to recapitalize their banking system and it will take 100s of billions to do it if not over a $1 trillion. Now currently Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and Italy can only really roll debt right now, they can't do a large bond offering. So how do they pay for their bank recaps? They will be forced to cut spending by huge margins in order to do bank recaps.

Once Greece defaults France and Belgium will not be able to do any more major bond issuances either. So they too will be forced to find savings elsewhere.


Please find my a "right wing country" in Europe. Germany is close as you'll get and even that country is in debt 80% of GDP. They are all socialist countries and they are getting hit hard and are going to continue to get hit harder. The math says that they are going to be forced into dismantling some of their social welfare state.

And hopefully that is what finally scares some liberals in the US to realize that the government can't just make unlimited promises it can't keep and that much of the promises the government has already made they can no longer keep. But I'm not holding my breath that liberals in the US will actually see that.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2011, 08:07:54 am »
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the programs for olds are politically untouchable. Social Security and Medicare will be funded, even if they have to get rid of NASA, NOAA, the CDC, FEMA, the State Department and the Coast Guard to do it.

I would agree as well. In serious negotiations to cut large swath's of government spending you would be looking at some minor changes to the 2 programs for those under 50 and then wholesale wipeouts of other departments. But again that assumes you get this done in 3 years.

If its 7 years down the road than the US government would likely be forced into cutting all those programs plus cutting some benefits for SS and Medicare. Its that serious!
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2011, 12:18:27 pm »
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At the rate things are going I really don't think so. I think we're going to see a new Gilded Age.

Tell me when we see their architecture and culture, and I will celebrate. But seriously, no, I think this "occupy Wall Street" stuff is the beginning of the left-wing reaction.

I'm not sure if I like that or not (it would destroy the TP, or destroy the country altoghethe).
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2011, 08:17:44 pm »
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Mind you, I'm far from convinced that opebo is insane in an entirely admirable or responsible way, but him having gone off the deep end isn't itself exactly unreasonable on his part.

Nothing 'deep end' about noting that elimination of redistributionist programs will lead to the death of poor people, Nathan.  Wank is the one with the silly agenda.   Socialism!  Socialism!
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2011, 08:34:21 pm »
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At the rate things are going I really don't think so. I think we're going to see a new Gilded Age.

Tell me when we see their architecture and culture, and I will celebrate. But seriously, no, I think this "occupy Wall Street" stuff is the beginning of the left-wing reaction.

I'm not sure if I like that or not (it would destroy the TP, or destroy the country altoghethe).

Any cause that could that destroy the TP is a cause worth championing.
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2011, 10:18:50 pm »
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Mind you, I'm far from convinced that opebo is insane in an entirely admirable or responsible way, but him having gone off the deep end isn't itself exactly unreasonable on his part.

Nothing 'deep end' about noting that elimination of redistributionist programs will lead to the death of poor people, Nathan.  Wank is the one with the silly agenda.   Socialism!  Socialism!

No, your position isn't insane at all (as I said, I think you've diagnosed the problem quite well even if I'm as yet unconvinced of some of your specific solutions), your rhetoric is just sometimes a little...I don't know, it's not the kind I would use. Again, I can't say I blame you (though you seem to be doing pretty well for yourself).
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2011, 11:31:21 pm »
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the programs for olds are politically untouchable. Social Security and Medicare will be funded, even if they have to get rid of NASA, NOAA, the CDC, FEMA, the State Department and the Coast Guard to do it.

I love NASA but if keeping Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare meant getting rid of NASA, it'd be an easy decision. Now, the Defense Budget could definitely be reduced majorly. Not getting rid of the State Department--ridiculous--but I'm sure there's a lot of fat that could be trimmed from the defense establishment.
sure there's a lot of fat to be trimmed, but that's just the start of what would be needed. What I mentioned were just examples. If Americans aren't willing to  do anything to change Social Security and Medicare - and by all signs they aren't - it won't be long before these entitlement programs take up nearly the entire budget of the government.
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2011, 11:39:47 pm »
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The real reasons for the federal budget deficit (and the recession) is that the economy has become built increasingly on waste and fraud in the financial, military-industrial, health care, and real estate sectors.

With such an unstable and volatile source of revenue, of course there will be huge deficits (especially with spending in general being so high). Not to mention, with tax rates on the wealthy being historically low, the middle and lower classes are increasingly bearing the burden of revenue-all this, in a time when unemployment is high and wages are depressed.

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