Obama 49/Romney 49

[Jacobtm]

Let's say it's Romney v. Obama and the PV splits 49/49, with 2% going to minor candidates. Who wins? What's the map look like?

Romney's ''tough talk'' on immigration kills him in Nevada and New Mexico, but Coloradoans find it easier to cozy up to a moderate Republican. OH and FL slip away from Obama due to loss of popularity. VA and Iowa stay out of Romney's grasp cause he just isn't conservative enough, and Obama pours a ton of money into the two states. NH loves to flip flop as much as Romney does.

All in all, Obama squeaks by, 272-266

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney              272
Obama               266

In a nail biter election night, with late returns coming in from Nevada, Mitt Romney is called as the 45th President of the United States of America at 3:16 A.M., the morning after the election.

President Obama calls President Elect Romney at 3:21 A.M. offering his concession and congratulations.

President Obama addresses his disappointed supporters and the nation at 3:38 AM.

President Elect Romney addresses his jubilant supporters and the nation at 4:07 A.M. 

[Skill and Chance]

CO and NV decide the election on Wednesday morning.  The colors of PA, VA, and NC are intentional.  I think everyone is seriously underestimating the rate of demographic change in the East.  Also, Romney has the potential to make New England interesting in a close race.

[Jacobtm]

Crazy to be predicting such simmilar maps. Wonder if it'll turn out anything like this in 13 months...

[GMantis]

Romney's ''tough talk'' on immigration kills him in Nevada and New Mexico,

Wouldn't that actually help? Hispanic are disproportionaly few and Republicans don't win many of their votes anyway, but tapping the sentiment against illegal immigration might greatly increase turnout in Romney's favor.

[pbrower2a]

Crazy to be predicting such simmilar maps. Wonder if it'll turn out anything like this in 13 months...

The elections of 2000, 2004, and 2008 all have a bearing on a close election. In a 49-49 the President still has the advantage of winning more states by smaller margins than those that he loses by gigantic margins. I can see Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire as if he were a Favorite Son. At that, winning Texas 60-40 means no more than does winning both Pennsylvania and Ohio by 52-48 margins.

The President wins if he wins all states in red and:

Florida outright

or -- two of Colorado,  Nevada,  North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia

[Fritz]

Your numbers are a little bit off, pbrower. You have Obama at 253, needs 17 to win. So Nevada + Colorado does not win (9+6=15), and Ohio by itself at 18 does win.  According to your map, Obama wins with:

Either Florida or Ohio,

or

either NC or VA + one other

[pbrower2a]

Your numbers are a little bit off, pbrower. You have Obama at 253, needs 17 to win. So Nevada + Colorado does not win (9+6=15), and Ohio by itself at 18 does win.  According to your map, Obama wins with:

Either Florida or Ohio,

or

either NC or VA + one other

You are right.

[LastVoter]

I think Colorado should be red.

[pbrower2a]

I think Colorado should be red.

I haven't seen a recent poll of Colorado. The electoral behavior of Colorado in 2010 and demographic change suggest that Colorado is more typical of the Democratic firewall than it is of a true swing state.  It could be D+2 by now while a state like New Hampshire goes R+2.

I am guessing that Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are about the political average. All in all, a 49-49 split of the popular vote is an even split, and a state close to the national average is a pure tossup. But as significant is how the vote for third-Party or self-funded Independent candidates go. In 2008, the combined vote for John McCain and Bob Barr was larger than the combined vote for Barack Obama and Ralph Nader in North Carolina and the other way around in Missouri. Voters for Ralph Nader would have never voted for John McCain and those for Bob Barr would have never voted for Barack Obama.

Imagine that states close to the national average such as Iowa and Pennsylvania have a left-wing candidate who takes away enough Obama votes that the President loses those states and that nobody on the Right is so effective in a state (let us say Indiana or Missouri) to have such an effect.  Third-Party and independent candidates can throw a monkey wrench into a close election. The "other 2%" can make a huge difference.

As it is, the President seems to be winning critical matchups despite having very low approval ratings even in some states in which he is winning the matchups. It is possible that low approval ratings more reflect the failure of the US economy than than they reflect dissent with the available candidates on their promises and cultural stands. If people could 'elect' an economy and vote for politicians on everything else, then maybe President Obama would be doing very well. 

The Republicans now have some culpability for the state of the economy through filibusters and extreme posturing in the House. When economic stewardship with the political personalities now available matter far less than does defeating the President and otherwise consolidating power for major reforms that are now unpopular (like a national "Right to Work" law, dismantling the EPA, or privatizing Social Security and Medicare), Republicans own their share in the economic hardships of the time. So far as I can tell the economy is a wash.

But much of that will decide whether the election of 2012 goes 49-49 or 55-44 (whatever way) or something in between.   

[Jacobtm]

I am guessing that Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are about the political average. All in all, a 49-49 split of the popular vote is an even split, and a state close to the national average is a pure tossup.

Not quite.

In NC in '08, for example:

Obama: 49.7%
McCain: 49.4%
Barr: .6%

Arguably, Barr was a spoiler candidate who allowed Obama to win. So in a close national race, those candidates who take a small percent of the vote can actually be pivotal.

NC gave more than 50% of its vote to the ''not Obama'' crowd. But that little split allowed Obama to walk away with it.

[You kip if you want to...]

CO being the closest, but if Democrats can pull it off in 2010...