IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Cain leads Romney by 8, Paul only other in double digits

[realisticidealist]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-10-10

Summary:

Cain:	30%
Romney:	22%
Paul:	10%
Perry:	9%
Bachmann:	8%
Gingrich:	8%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[realisticidealist]

I see your Marist poll and raise you a PPP poll.

[Tender Branson]

I just modified the date of the Marist poll.

First I didn't see when the poll was conucted, but now I found out that it was done between Oct. 3-5, while the PPP poll was done between Oct. 6-9

Therefore Cain is gaining ... !

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I just modified the date of the Marist poll.

First I didn't see when the poll was conucted, but now I found out that it was done between Oct. 3-5, while the PPP poll was done between Oct. 6-9

Therefore Cain is gaining ... !

gaining?!...I believe the verb you are searching for is pulling as in pulling away

[Meeker]

Yowza.

[King]

I would say Romney should start campaigning in Iowa, but Cain hasn't campaigned much there either.

Who would drop out if this showing happened on caucus night?  Bachmann definitely.  Santorum probably, he almost dropped out around the Ames Straw Poll. 

Would Perry and Gingrich correctly identify themselves as done in this scenario?

[Meeker]

I think Perry would wait until South Carolina if his funding allows.

That's what Fred Thompson did.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-10-10

Summary:

Cain:	30%
Romney:	22%
Paul:	10%
Perry:	9%
Bachmann:	8%
Gingrich:	8%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

not only does this snapshot "feel right" at this point in time, this is very much in line with the national numbers, IMO.

[Tender Branson]

I think Bachmann and Santorum will almost definitely call it quits if they do poorly in Iowa (getting less than 10-15%). Same story with Johnson.

Huntsman will at least wait until NH, if he does poorly he'll drop out and endorse Romney.

Gingrich and Perry will wait at least until SC or FL.

I could see Romney and Paul go all in until at least Super Tuesday.

And Cain: It remains to be seen if he can really stay ahead until SC.

[Oakvale]

Obviously I don't expect Cain's current buzz to last very long - a man who's running for President to sell books doesn't have the organisation to mantain these kinds of leads - but this is still funny.

Romney really should compete in Iowa, though. It looks like he has a real chance at winning and if he does it's pretty much a clean sweep until South Carolina, at which point he's probably unstoppable.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obviously I don't expect Cain's current buzz to last very long - a man who's running for President to sell books doesn't have the organisation to mantain these kinds of leads - but this is still funny.

don't most people running for POTUS publish a book in order to introduce themselves and their vision to the public?

[Simfan34]

I think it may be wise to look a polls once a month now.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Bachmann and Santorum will almost definitely call it quits if they do poorly in Iowa (getting less than 10-15%). Same story with Johnson.

Johnson is spending all his time in New Hampshire.  Completely ignoring Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

"Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?"

yes 37%
no 42%
not sure 22%

among those saying yes....

Cain 29%
Romney 26%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 7%
Perry 7%
Santorum 5%
Bachmann 3%
Huntsman 3%
Johnson 1%

among those saying no....

Cain 34%
Romney 22%
Perry 11%
Bachmann 10%
Gingrich 9%
Paul 6%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 0%
Johnson 0%

[GMantis]

I just modified the date of the Marist poll.

First I didn't see when the poll was conucted, but now I found out that it was done between Oct. 3-5, while the PPP poll was done between Oct. 6-9

Therefore Cain is gaining ... !

gaining?!...I believe the verb you are searching for is pulling as in pulling away

Cain being the latest of the Tea party favorites to take a lead in Iowa is very different from him pulling away. Even if he wins Iowa, Romney winning New Hampshire and Nevada will stop any momentum he may have gained and a victory in South Carolina would only keep him floating. And then come the big states come along, where Romney still has the advantage - due to his head start, if nothing else. Romney was right not to focus too much on this difficult (for him) and overrated caucus.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Being the latest of the Tea party favorites to take a lead in Iowa is very different from him pulling away. Even if he wins Iowa, Romney winning New Hampshire and Nevada will stop any momentum he may have gained and a victory in South Carolina would only keep him floating. And then come the big states come along, where Romney still has the advantage - due to his head start, if nothing else. Romney was right not to focus too much on this difficult (for him) and overrated caucus.

(at least before last night's debate, which we don't yet know the effect of) Cain is leading Romney nationally....If Cain wins Iowa and SC, what leads you to believe he wont also win FL, TX and the rest of the South and the Plains?....also, has there ever been a GOP nominee that lost both the TX and FL primaries?