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Author Topic: Mexico 2012  (Read 24930 times)
ag
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« Reply #175 on: May 30, 2012, 07:22:26 pm »
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I tend to support AMLO.  But...at best, he'll get second.  Nieto has an unfortunately wide lead.

Well, he will, likely, get second - though quite far, in vote-share terms from his second-place finish in 2006, unless Vazquez Mota collapses.
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« Reply #176 on: May 31, 2012, 09:59:47 am »
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Today's Reforma poll is earth shattering (in brackets, change from April)

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 38% (-4)
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 34% (+7)
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 23% (-6)
Quadri (PANAL) 5% (+3)

This compares w/ the stable Milenio (though there Pena Nieto also hits his bottom reading ever, I think, but it is a very slow change):

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 43%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 27%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%

There is some evidence to suggest that Reforma might be right (aside from, generally, being a more reliable source). In particular, Vazquez Mota is rapidly shifting her attack to Lopez Obrador.
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« Reply #177 on: May 31, 2012, 11:04:28 am »
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I suppose that at the very least a strong second place showing by AMLO would help the PRD win more seats in the congressional elections that are simultaneous to the presidential vote?
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« Reply #178 on: May 31, 2012, 11:44:31 am »
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Naturally - there will be coattails. More importanty, if Pena Nieto victory is underwhelming, PRI won't get an outright majority in Congress (nobody has had an outright majority in both chambers since 1997, though right now PRI has an effective majority in the Chaber of Deputies, at least when you include the PVEM). PRD itself is a fairly loose collection of "tribes", so figuring out who exactly would benefit from a good PRD performance is hard until we know who is, actually, elected.

 
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« Reply #179 on: May 31, 2012, 12:14:36 pm »
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It's official. I'm supporting AMLO. Not that it matters, but I thought someone had to know it.
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« Reply #180 on: May 31, 2012, 12:26:35 pm »
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Most countries in Latin America have a second round in presidential elections between the two finalists. mexico is an exception. I am curious if there is any research where people's second preferences would flow if there was a run-off.

Where would PRI voters in a PAN vs PRD second round?
Where would PAN voters go in a PRI vs. PRD run-off?
Where would PRD voters go in a PRI vs PAN runoff?
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« Reply #181 on: May 31, 2012, 12:41:22 pm »
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It's official. I'm supporting AMLO. Not that it matters, but I thought someone had to know it.

Well, just to make it equally clear Smiley I truly hate Pena Nieto, but if I see one more poll like this, and I vote for him. And, unlike you, I am a Mexican citizen Smiley)

Lopez Obrador is a classical Latin American national socialist type. In Europe, Mussolini has taken that part of the political spectrum to the right: the closest ideological cousin of Lopez Obrador in recent Europe would, probably, be somebody like Berlusconi.  Lopez Obrador represents the old "classical" PRI - the Lopez Portillo kind. And, like Lopez Portillo he has a megalomaniac idea of his own self, which makes him especially bad (ideologically, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas might not be that different, but he is a much nicer person, not given to delusions of personal grandeur). 
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« Reply #182 on: May 31, 2012, 12:47:51 pm »
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Where would PRI voters in a PAN vs PRD second round?
Where would PAN voters go in a PRI vs. PRD run-off?
Where would PRD voters go in a PRI vs PAN runoff?

Not too many actual polls for the presidential race (no run-offs here - no reason to poll). However there is some evidence from congressional races. Historically, except in 2006, there is evidence of PANistas supporting PRD and vice versae, when their preferred candidates don't have a chance. PRIistas, I believe (though with less evidence), would go PAN in the North and PRD in the South.

Lopez Obrador's personality makes it strange. In 2006 the usual PAN-PRD strategic alliance in congressional races broke down badly (people stuck to their candidates even when they had no chance). Right now there is an obvious migration of part of the PAN electorate to Lopez Obrador - but that's, in part, because up till now those who would rather take Pena Nieto as the lesser evil didn't have the reason to vote strategically. If Lopez Obrador becomes a real contender, I bet there will be a sizeable faction that would hold their breath and vote Pena Nieto.
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« Reply #183 on: May 31, 2012, 12:50:42 pm »
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It's official. I'm supporting AMLO. Not that it matters, but I thought someone had to know it.

Well, just to make it equally clear Smiley I truly hate Pena Nieto, but if I see one more poll like this, and I vote for him. And, unlike you, I am a Mexican citizen Smiley)

Lopez Obrador is a classical Latin American national socialist type. In Europe, Mussolini has taken that part of the political spectrum to the right: the closest ideological cousin of Lopez Obrador in recent Europe would, probably, be somebody like Berlusconi.  Lopez Obrador represents the old "classical" PRI - the Lopez Portillo kind. And, like Lopez Portillo he has a megalomaniac idea of his own self, which makes him especially bad (ideologically, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas might not be that different, but he is a much nicer person, not given to delusions of personal grandeur). 
So Vazquez Mota is the only decent (or half decent) candidate?
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« Reply #184 on: May 31, 2012, 12:52:12 pm »
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So, I guess, at the moment this is my likely vote (may still change).

1. President - Vazquez Mota of PAN  (if the Reforma poll turns out to be an outlier) or Pena Nieto of PRI (if it is confirmed by others).
2. Mexico City mayor - Mancera (PRD/MC/PT)
3. Congress (both House and Senate), city council, district mayor - all PAN.

So, it's not unlikely that I vote for all three major parties Smiley)
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« Reply #185 on: May 31, 2012, 12:55:55 pm »
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So Vazquez Mota is the only decent (or half decent) candidate?

Sort of. She is, of course, quite far to the right religiously - anti-abortion, for instance (though few people here decide whom to vote for on that basis). But she is personally decent, reasonably smart (though, within limits), not personally corrupt - and she truly hates La Maestra, which would make it at least likely that she'd try to reform the dismal educational system. She has no chance at this point, though.

And, to think of it, that we could have had Ebrard for PRD and Paredes for PRI - we'd have 3 decent candidates, with one of them guaranteed to win.

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« Reply #186 on: May 31, 2012, 01:13:03 pm »
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And, like Lopez Portillo he has a megalomaniac idea of his own self, which makes him especially bad (ideologically, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas might not be that different, but he is a much nicer person, not given to delusions of personal grandeur). 

why should pop-psychoanalytic broad brushstrokes such as the above matter?  is there not an alternative locus, perhaps turned on its head with all of the stupid research showing narcissists may be good for organizations... using the same characteristics to choose leaders as we choose our friends runs the risk of at best being non sequitur...  it's what the GWB campaigns in '00 and '04 explicitly tried to make us do: "who would you rather have a beer with?"
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they live in between a, 'what is' and 'what if?'
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« Reply #187 on: May 31, 2012, 01:18:27 pm »
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as stated perfectly by mewithoutYou.


I often wonder if I've already died,
Or if the 'I' is an unintelligible lie

Off we flew like swarms of hornets
'Woken up' from winter’s rest
To colonize with plastic pulp
Our neighbor’s perfect paper nest
While all year round potter wasp
Has buzzed her unhinged song:
You can hear its creaking in our floorboards:

megalomania’s only mania if you’re wrong
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« Reply #188 on: May 31, 2012, 01:53:18 pm »
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My mom will be voting for Vazquez Mota and has no interest in choosing between a lesser of two evils of Nieto and AMLO (I'm guessing she'd pick AMLO). If I actually decided to go through the process and become a dual citizen, I'd probably vote for Quadri.
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« Reply #189 on: May 31, 2012, 02:37:00 pm »
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why should pop-psychoanalytic broad brushstrokes such as the above matter?  with?"

Because he is fundamentally hostile to democracy and Mexico hasn't been a stable  democracy for long, so undermining that achievement won't be hard. In his view ANYTHING whatsoever that happens that he doesn't like is a "plot" to prevent him executing his vision of the world (in which vision, of course, he is the indispensible leader).  He is incapable of understanding that people might criticize him for any reason other than treason or some nefarious conspiracy.  And, no, he is not like the other politicians in this dimensions - he is almost comically incapable of expressing even token remorse or accepting a token blame for anything. He can't even for a second imagine that an opponent might be out there for legitimate reasons - anybody, who ever goes against him, is the vilest, murderous scum (or, at best, is in the pay of the vilest, murderous scum). If facts go against him - well, then reality must be participating in a plot to bring him down, but he won't let reality do this without punishment.

And this is not "pop-psychoanalisis", but mere observation of his reactions during the last 12 years in public politics.
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« Reply #190 on: May 31, 2012, 04:59:38 pm »
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Lopez Obrador is a classical Latin American national socialist type. In Europe, Mussolini has taken that part of the political spectrum to the right: the closest ideological cousin of Lopez Obrador in recent Europe would, probably, be somebody like Berlusconi.  Lopez Obrador represents the old "classical" PRI - the Lopez Portillo kind. And, like Lopez Portillo he has a megalomaniac idea of his own self, which makes him especially bad (ideologically, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas might not be that different, but he is a much nicer person, not given to delusions of personal grandeur). 

I´m not a big fan of López Obrador but your comparisions sound a bit strange. Maybe if AMLO were the owner of Televisa and demonstrators were claiming against him and his "Soap Opera Democracy" Berlusconi would call him a cousin. Do you really think that they are near talking in ideological terms? Leaving apart the word "populist", which is a vague and imprecise definition, I can´t found similarities. I guess that when you are taking about National Socialism you are talking about a certain type of left parties and personalities in Latin America ("populists", "nationalists", etcetera) but you also mention Mussolini. That reminds me when here, in Spain, certain centralist people talk about the "Nazi-onalistas" referring to our own peripheric nationalists. Really, I can´t (under) stand certain types of parallelisms between contexts and situations. Mussolini is a serious thing, even when I understand the resentment towards the Old PRI Guard. 
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« Reply #191 on: May 31, 2012, 05:33:27 pm »
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Disrespect for democracy and the rule of law, preference for corporativist monopoly state (as long as the monopolies are domestic and either subservient to the government or directly controled by it), strident nationalism, severe intolerance to criticism, reliance on personal charisma, creation of private "alternative" institutions working for the leader and loyal, primarily or exclusively, to him. Is that enough? Or should I continue?
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« Reply #192 on: May 31, 2012, 06:57:52 pm »
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Are you talking of AMLO in comparison with Il Cavaliere or Mussolini? Are the two latter exactly the same? And what about the "national socialists"? Criticism is fine and I won´t defend a person like the PRD candidate but I think you are bringing the things too far.
Disrespect for democracy and the rule of law, preference for corporativist monopoly state (as long as the monopolies are domestic and either subservient to the government or directly controled by it), strident nationalism, severe intolerance to criticism, reliance on personal charisma, creation of private "alternative" institutions working for the leader and loyal, primarily or exclusively, to him. Is that enough? Or should I continue?

Are you talking of AMLO in comparison with Il Cavaliere or Mussolini? Are the two latter exactly the same? And what about the "national socialists"? Criticism is fine and I won´t defend a person like the PRD candidate but I think you are bringing the things too far.
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« Reply #193 on: May 31, 2012, 08:08:39 pm »
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All three are not the same, of course, but they share a lot - I tried to identify the things they have in common. I am not accusing anyone of anything: naturally, neither Berlusconi, nor Lopez Obrador have established a dictatorship or illegally occupied Ethiopia Smiley)

But it is crucially important for understanding Mexican and, more generally, Latin American politics to understand that (with some notable exceptions, of course) the Latin American left and the European far right share both ideological roots and contemporary sensibilities. It is not merely a curiosity that many Latin Americans (not only the left, of course) retained fairly ambivalent attitudes towards the fascist and even the Nazi "experiments" until fairly late: Latin America has never experienced the WWII horrors, so it never got the "liberal innoculation" Europe got, never developed immunity to the siren song of national-socialism.

Lopez Obrador is not, of course, unique here - he merely follows the old PRI "Revolutionary" tradition. His personality, though, makes him much more dangerous - especially if we recall how young and immature Mexican democracy is.
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« Reply #194 on: May 31, 2012, 08:22:55 pm »
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no run-offs here - no reason to poll

In South Korea elections are held without run-off too, but polling for hypothetical second round exists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_South_Korean_presidential_election,_2012.

It's pity that in Mexico polling for run-off is not conducted. It would be interesting to see it, especially in 2006.
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« Reply #195 on: May 31, 2012, 08:52:35 pm »
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All three are not the same, of course, but they share a lot - I tried to identify the things they have in common. I am not accusing anyone of anything: naturally, neither Berlusconi, nor Lopez Obrador have established a dictatorship or illegally occupied Ethiopia Smiley)

Oh, well, you weren´t talking about a march of "red shirts" over Mexico DF. That´s cooling down.

But it is crucially important for understanding Mexican and, more generally, Latin American politics to understand that (with some notable exceptions, of course) the Latin American left and the European far right share both ideological roots and contemporary sensibilities. It is not merely a curiosity that many Latin Americans (not only the left, of course) retained fairly ambivalent attitudes towards the fascist and even the Nazi "experiments" until fairly late: Latin America has never experienced the WWII horrors, so it never got the "liberal innoculation" Europe got, never developed immunity to the siren song of national-socialism.

Which left are you talking about? Obrador or Hermes Binner? Chávez or Allende? Not all the Latin American left has the same ideological background and maybe I am missing the point but I don´t understand your statement about the ambivalence of the left towards the Nazis or the supossedly shared roots (again, which left?). I always thought that Perón was somewhat ambivelent and certainly was a close friend of Franco but, was he a leftist or a mere populist? It´s impossible to compare Perón policies in the 40-50´s with the latter Peronist governments in the seventies (fairly well rightist). Open sympathies can be found in the far-far right (Stroessner of course and some Argentinian or Chilean reactionaries). Maybe there are examples of individual lefties anyway, but now I can´t remember. Despite the "liberal innoculation" in (Western) Europe we have all those far-right and populist parties in countries fairly well civilized, so perhaps they haven´t developed inmunity against this virus after all.

About AMLO personality nothing to say but perhaps it´s understandable (probably not justifiable) a certain degree of paranoia given the Mexican recent History. Everybody knows thet Cuahtémoc Cárdenas won an election and PRI guys made tricks to change the result. I won´t campaign for any Mexican candidate anyway.
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« Reply #196 on: May 31, 2012, 09:20:02 pm »
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I may have seen some polling, though I am not certain - not for a run-off, of course, but about your "second preference". Actually, this is not the same thing Smiley One votes very differently, depending on whether the election is close or not. For instance, if the last pre-election poll were to show Pena Nieto far ahead of everyone, my second choice would have been Lopez Obrador - I'd hate a big Pena majority. On the other hand, if I thought Lopez Obrador could win, I would definitely claim my second preference to be Pena Nieto - I'd hate a Lopez Obrador victory, whatever the margin. As the run-off and first-round dynamics aren't the same, I could very well imagine voting for Lopez Obrador in the first round only to switch to Pena Nieto in the second Smiley) In any case, my preference in one-round election would be different from that in a two-round poll.
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« Reply #197 on: May 31, 2012, 09:35:39 pm »
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The "left" I am talking about is, of course, the "illiberal non-Communist left", in the Calles/Obregon-Peron-Kirchner-Chavez tradition. Then, of course,there is APRA - they didn't call themselves FAJistas before WWII for nothing Smiley)   Bolivian Morales is a rather special case: but then, Bolivia has never emerged from feudalism, so it is bound to be special.

The Pro-Soviet or pro-China, properly Communist groups, of course, are a special case, but they haven't had that much of a governance experience - baring Cuba, of course (though whether Castro brothers are that far removed from the fascist tradition is worth thinking about).

I did mention notable liberal exceptions. Naturally, the bulk of the Chilean left has been very different, for instance (even pre-Pinochet). So is, post-Vargas, the left in Brasil, I guess. There are other exceptions as well, of course. But the more typical Latin American left is, undeniably, fascist. Whether it does send out the red or yellow or whatever shirts depends on historical circumstances, and not on the ideological aversion to such mode of action.
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« Reply #198 on: June 01, 2012, 12:34:14 am »
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That'd be so awesome if AMLO were elected president.
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« Reply #199 on: June 01, 2012, 02:50:04 am »
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I may have seen some polling, though I am not certain - not for a run-off, of course, but about your "second preference". Actually, this is not the same thing Smiley One votes very differently, depending on whether the election is close or not. For instance, if the last pre-election poll were to show Pena Nieto far ahead of everyone, my second choice would have been Lopez Obrador - I'd hate a big Pena majority. On the other hand, if I thought Lopez Obrador could win, I would definitely claim my second preference to be Pena Nieto - I'd hate a Lopez Obrador victory, whatever the margin. As the run-off and first-round dynamics aren't the same, I could very well imagine voting for Lopez Obrador in the first round only to switch to Pena Nieto in the second Smiley) In any case, my preference in one-round election would be different from that in a two-round poll.
So is your first preference some "irrelevant" third fourth party, and if so who? This post is confusing to me, I assume it's not the right-wingers since you said you would would for one of the left-wingers if it's a two round vote. It seems to me both of the left-wingers have some serious baggage, AMLO hired Guiliani and seems to have trolled seriously over his loss in past presidential election. PRI is well... PRI.
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