Mexico 2012

[ag]

It seems that the Brazilian government position (and It is also a matter with the EU, Dilma had a bitter conversation with Merkel over this) is that many American and European industries are practicing dumping, to get rid of products made by their plants abroad.

When I hear the word "dumping" I usually want to shoot the speaker.

[jaichind]

How I see the campaign so far


A relatively predictable campaign received a jolt in mid-May when
the strong favourite, Enrique Pena Nieto, faced a student
demonstration while visiting a private university in Mexico City,
where most of those enrolled come from wealthy families.  Pena
Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reaction was to
describe the crowd as left-wing militants that did not belong
there.  A YouTube video showed 131 students displaying their
university identification to rebut this.  A support group from
private and public universities quickly developed into a strong
anti-Pena Nieto and PRI movement.
 
The movement changed campaign dynamics, significantly boosting
Lopez Obrador (popularly known as AMLO), of the centre-left Party
of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and other small parties.  AMLO
had been unable to overcome the image of bad loser in the 2006
election.  Until a few weeks ago, he seemed destined to finish
third, with Pena Nieto winning easily.

However, the student movement discourse echoed several claims AMLO
has made, notably the powerful political influence of
telecommunications giant, Televisa, and its close relationship
with the PRI. The movement quickly
evolved into being openly anti-Pena Nieto and surreptitiously
pro-AMLO.  It is plausible that many that had intended to vote for
AMLO were coy about it given his 2006 behaviour, and now state
their preference openly.
 
On the other hand, Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
centre-right National Action Party (PAN) has conducted a
lacklustre campaign.  She failed to distance herself from
Calderon, increasingly unpopular due to the government offensive
against drug cartels.  Opinion
polls showed AMLO moving into second place, with Vazquez Mota
close behind and Pena Nieto losing some support.
 
This is among the most polarised presidential campaigns since
Mexico became a fully-fledged democracy in the 1990s:
--    In 1994 it was a contest between the PRI and PAN, with the
      PRD nominee behind throughout the campaign and getting a
      relatively small share of the vote.  The PRI retained the
      presidency.
 
--    In 2000 it was similar, but with the PAN winning the
      presidency.
 
--    The 2006 election saw a deeply unpopular PRI candidate, with
      the election again a two-horse race.  While Calderon won
      narrowly, the PRI vote plunged to a historic low.
 
Now, it is clearly a three-horse contest.  While he has lost some
terrain, Pena Nieto retains a commanding lead, which most recent
opinion polls put at 12-14 percentage points.  Unless
extraordinary events change campaign dynamics, the PRI should win
the presidency, though more narrowly than seemed likely a few
months ago.  Therefore, the possibility has increased of another
fragmented Congress, and continued political deadlock.

At least two factors recently have arrested AMLO's rise:
 
--    He started behaving like the frontrunner, claiming that
      there is a serious possibility of fraud against him.  He has
      refused to state that he would recognise defeat.  During the
      second and last presidential debate, on June 10, he said
      that there would be "no revenge" if he won -- reminding
      voters of past aggressive tactics.
 
--    Vazquez Mota was aggressive in the debate, particularly
      against AMLO, while Pena Nieto mostly ignored his opponents
      and presented himself as an efficient leader.
 
Therefore, Vazquez Mota has regained the initiative somewhat, with
expectations among supporters that she may retake second place in
opinion polls, while Pena Nieto performed better than expected.
The fourth candidate, Gabriel Quadri (of the ideologically
undefined New Alliance Party, PANAL) performed well, as expected
(he was the clear winner in the first debate), and continued
pushing a liberal economic and social agenda.  However, PANAL is
small and controlled by the leader of the National Union of
Teachers (SNTE), Elba Esther Gordillo.  Quadri at most should
obtain 5% of the vote.  Opinion polls after the debate show
Vazquez Mota and Pena Nieto increasing support marginally, AMLO
and Quadri stagnating and those undecided falling.
 
By July 1 neither AMLO nor Vazquez Mota is likely to be able to
claim credibly that they are clearly in second place and could
defeat Pena Nieto -- thus appealing to those considering voting
tactically against the PRI.
 
The 2000 and 2006 elections showed significant evidence of
tactical voting:
 
--    In 2006 one in five people that voted for PRI candidates for
      the Chamber of Deputies voted PRD or PAN for president, with
      most backing the former.  SNTE members, instructed by
      Gordillo, voted PAN for president and PANAL for Congress.
 
--    As a result, Lopez Obrador got nearly six percentage points
      of the national vote above PRD congressional candidates.
      Calderon's difference was 2.3 points, enough to secure the
      presidency -- increasing Gordillo's political weight  
 
--    In 2000 the anti-PRI vote went to the PAN's Vicente Fox, who
      was 4.3 percentage points above the party's candidates for
      federal deputies.  One of ten people that voted for PRD
      congressional candidates supported Fox instead of the
      party's presidential nominee, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas.
 
With AMLO and Vazquez Mota fighting strongly for second place,
tactical voting should not be as high as in 2006 or 2000.  Most
tactical voting should favour AMLO.  However, many PAN members are
as unenthusiastic about voting for the PRD as voters from that
party were about the PAN in 2000.  A tactical vote of 2-3
percentage points favouring AMLO seems conceivable -- not enough
to surmount the current Pena Nieto advantage.  Moreover, Pena
Nieto actively may be courting Gordillo so that SNTE members vote
tactically, boosting the PRI.  Therefore, a Pena Nieto victory
with a clean margin of 5-10 percentage points over AMLO seems
plausible, with Vazquez Mota a close third.

Prediction
PRI 38%
PRD 30%
PAN 29%
PANAL 3%

[batmacumba]

Source?

It seems that the Brazilian government position (and It is also a matter with the EU, Dilma had a bitter conversation with Merkel over this) is that many American and European industries are practicing dumping, to get rid of products made by their plants abroad.

When I hear the word "dumping" I usually want to shoot the speaker.

Why so?

[Senator MaxQue]

It seems that the Brazilian government position (and It is also a matter with the EU, Dilma had a bitter conversation with Merkel over this) is that many American and European industries are practicing dumping, to get rid of products made by their plants abroad.

When I hear the word "dumping" I usually want to shoot the speaker.

Well, that's too bad. US tend to accuse the other states of "dumping" when free trade hurts some segment of their economy. The legal fight who followed made the economy of my region crash.

[ag]

Source?

Why so?

What source?

Accusations of dumping, normally, are the bullsh**t that protectionists use to justify restricting trade.

[ag]

In 1994 Mexico wasn't a fully-fledged democracy. The electoral authorities were not yet independent, the original PRI candidate got killed under misterious circumstances, the PAN candidate was somehow "persuaded" to disappear after the debate he won, etc., etc. They didn't have to fake too much simply because PRI won due to the sympathy vote that arose from the murder. Still, the winner (Zedillo) himself would later call his own election "legitimate, but unequal".

You also misuse the word "polarized". Actually, compared to 2006 this one isn't polarized at all. In 2006 there was extreme polarization, almost mutual hatred, which disrupted the normal strategic cross-party support between PAN and PRD in Congressional races (whatever tactical voting there was was restricted to the presidential race, w/ PRI voters choosing between the front-runners). In 2012 it is a lot more fluid, with people willing to consider switching their vote: it's just that there is no reason to do so. The primary battle is for the second spot, not for the first - EPN is too far ahead. You will see a lot of strategic voting in other races though: much less bad blood this time around.

[jaichind]

     June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico presidential front-runner
Enrique Pena Nieto led his nearest rival by 13 percentage points
in the last poll by Consulta Mitofsky before the election.
     Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party had
38.4 percent support, from 37.6 percent last week, while Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party had 25.4
percent backing from 24.3 percent, Mitofsky said in a report
released today. Support for Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
National Action Party was unchanged at 20.8 percent.
     Mexicans will cast their ballots on July 1 and the final
polls must be published by June 27, when campaigns officially
close. Lopez Obrador had begun to close the gap with the front-
runner earlier this month, although the latest polls show Pena
Nieto has maintained his lead of more than 10 percentage points.
     “There’s no question Pena Nieto is going to win,” said
Federico Estevez, a political science professor at the
Autonomous Institute of Technology of Mexico. “The fight is not
over the outcome, but over the amount of the lead.”
     A sampling of six other polls shows Pena Nieto leads by
about 15 percentage points, although undecided votes are not
included in the count, according to the Mexico City-based
Mitofsky.
     Lopez Obrador said in an interview with Radio Formula today
that a poll his campaign conducted giving him a lead of 3
percentage points “is going to widen.” He said other polls
showing Pena Nieto with a lead are “political propaganda.”



                     Congressional Majority



     Mitofsky calculated that the PRI would win a majority in
both houses of Congress, even under the worst-case scenario,
although it shows respondents’ backing for the PRI in Congress
is at its lowest since the campaign began, at 44.2 percent.
     The party needs 42.2 percent support to gain a majority,
according to Mitofsky. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1
percent.
     The Mitofsky survey shows that 30 percent of voters have
“a lot” of trust in the Federal Electoral Institute’s ability
to oversee the election, less than the 44 percent ahead of the
previous election in 2006.
     Mitofsky interviewed 1,000 registered voters from June 22
to June 24, and 13.6 percent of them did not specify support for
a candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Too little too late. The cartool will be in charge for 6 years.

[jaichind]

Outrage in Mexico as 'traitor' Fox backs PRI candidate

     June 27 (AFP) -- For Julio Rodriguez, who grills meat at a
busy sidewalk lunch stall, Mexican ex-president Vicente Fox is
guilty of "treason, towards his party and towards the nation."
     Fox, a member of the conservative National Action Party
(PAN), is calling on Mexicans to unite behind Enrique Pena
Nieto, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate
and front-runner in the July 1 presidential election.
     A lanky and affable rancher who was friends with US
president George W. Bush, Fox made history in 2000 when he was
elected president, ending 71 years of PRI rule in Mexico.
     "First he wanted to get the PRI out of power, and now he's
trying to put them back in again," Rodriguez said as he
arranged spice bottles for his Tuesday lunch customers.
     "The economy has to continue improving, and the only
economist in the race is Josefina," he said, referring to PAN
candidate Josefina Vasquez Mota, who is hoping to be Mexico's
first female president.
     Polls have her running a distant third, far behind Pena
Nieto and leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the Party of
the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
     "Only a miracle will allow that lady to win," Fox told
reporters recently.
     PAN members were especially outraged by a Fox interview
Sunday with Spain's El Pais in which he blasted President
Felipe Calderon, his successor and fellow party member.
     Under Calderon "there is a grave employment deficit," Fox
said. And in the war on drugs, "there have been innumerable
human rights violations."
     "I'm not calling for people to vote for the PRI, I'm
calling for people to unite around the front-runner, and the
winner is in sight," he told El Pais.
     "My loyalty is with democracy, with the people of Mexico."
     The PRI ran Mexico for 71 years through a combination of
patronage, corruption and ballot-box fraud until they were
ousted in 2000. Pena Nieto's opponents have argued that his
victory would mean a return to the bad old days.
     PAN spokesman Javier Lozano responded to Fox late Monday
with unusually harsh language, calling the former president a
"scoundrel," a "hypocrite," a "liar" and an "opportunist" for
turning his back on his party.
     He was "myopic" for not realizing that Europe's economic
woes contribute to Mexico's slowdown, and a "megalomaniac" for
comparing himself to Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill and
Martin Luther King.
     President Calderon "has had to pick up the garbage from
previous years of irresponsible and cowardly government during
previous presidencies, including (Fox's)," Lozano said.
     "Everything seems to indicate that he sold out" to Pena
Nieto, Lozano said. "We have definitely lost him."
     In part because he joined the PAN as an adult, Fox has
been out of place among life-long party loyalists like
Calderon, so he is more open to speaking his mind, said
political scientist Nicolas Loza.
     "The joke was that Fox and not the PAN reached the
presidency in 2000," said Loza, who teaches at the FLACSO
graduate school.
     Fox has always been friendly to PRI members and is
especially bent on preventing Lopez Obrador -- whom he derides
as "Lopez Chavez," a reference to leftist Venezuelan leader
Hugo Chavez -- from reaching the presidency.
     "Fox's behavior is not totally out of the unusual given
the advances of Lopez Obrador," who is now second in the polls,
said Loza.
     Fox clashed with Lopez Obrador when the latter was mayor
of Mexico City and when the leftist politician brought the city
to a standstill with mass protests after narrowly losing the
2006 election.
     Internal bickering is nothing new for the PAN, Loza said,
pointing out that Calderon was not Fox's choice to succeed him,
just as Vazquez Mota was not Calderon's first choice as
presidential candidate.
     PAN loyalist Alejandro Flores, 27, squirmed in his seat at
a Mexico City party office when asked about Fox. "It was not
the right time or place to say such things," he said.
     Flores said he preferred to remember Fox for his role in
prying the PRI out of office after seven decades. "For me, Fox
will always have a place in our party," he said.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

I'm trying to teach myself how to draw maps with Inkscape so I did some maps for the 2006 Mexican election because it was a very interesting one. I uploaded three maps showing PAN, PRD and PRI percentages at  state level, check my gallery and give me opinions, please. The map below shows the margin between Calderón and AMLO in every state at the last election. I´ll post some maps for the current elections when data are available.



Also I did this other using a base map available at Wikipedia showing the real PRI base of power: the states.

[ag]

We are in the "reflection" period now. But the last poll by Reforma a couple of days ago showed EPN at 41% vs. AMLO at 31%. Interestingly, they also polled by broad geographic area. AMLO was ahead in the South and in in the Center - followed closely by EPN. In the West and in the North EPN was far ahead of the runner-up - and that runner up was JVM, w/ AMLO at third.

Let's see how it plays out.

[ag]

Should be kept in mnid that not all PRI-governed states are the same. For instance, Zacatecas and Michoacan (BTW, your map is wrong - it's been retaken by PRI) have been under PRD control for years until recently (so was BCS, which is now held by PAN). Chihuahua, Queretaro, Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi have all had PANista governors, and Tlaxcala has been controlled by both PRD and PAN in the past. On the other hand, places like Tamaulipas, Coahuila, Durango, Tabasco, Campeche and a few others have never had a non-PRI governor in history.

[ag]

A funny campaing news I've almost missed. At her final campaign rally JVM proposed to appoint Felipe Calderon her Attorney General. I can't even express on how many levels it is hilarious.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

Should be kept in mnid that not all PRI-governed states are the same. For instance, Zacatecas and Michoacan (BTW, your map is wrong - it's been retaken by PRI) have been under PRD control for years until recently (so was BCS, which is now held by PAN). Chihuahua, Queretaro, Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi have all had PANista governors, and Tlaxcala has been controlled by both PRD and PAN in the past. On the other hand, places like Tamaulipas, Coahuila, Durango, Tabasco, Campeche and a few others have never had a non-PRI governor in history.

OK, ag, thanks for the correction. I've put Michoacán on PRI hands (editing the map is easy). Blame me for using a list of governors from Wikipedia. I took 2006 percentages from IFE. Also I know that PRD official colour is yellow, not red, and its symbol is the Aztec sun. If PRD is red in the map is for aesthetic reasons and for an easier ideological identification. So now there are only three southern states and the DF on PRD and allies side and a handful of states in North and Central Mexico governed by PAN. The PRI dominance is overwhelming.

I´ve read in El País that Macera, the PRD candidate, would be easily elected in DF. Mexico City is an island, of course. What about the other states?

I think that it wouldn't be a surprise an EPN landslide in Northern states. I suppose that PRD and PAN weakness in North and South Mexico respectively run against their chances.

[ag]

You mean, who'd win the gubernatorials? PRI, mostly. They have a good chance of taking Jalisco - unless it goes to the MC candidate (actually, a rogue panista, I believe, who didn't get his party nomination and is running on the MC line, which in this case doesn't coincide w/ the PRD; he is No. 2 in most polls); PAN is almost certainly loosing the state. PAN is only safish in Guanajuato, which it has governed since 1991; PRD is ubersafe in DF (this is going to be a historic landslide: since Mexico City mayor's been elected nobody has ever got even 50%; Mancera is on track for 65%). I don't know what to expect in the PRD-governed Chiapas and PAN-governed Morelos. Pretty sure all other states on ballot the same day will stay w/ PRI (Tabasco, Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, etc.).

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

I found some polls for the gubernatorial races.

DF (Mexico City)/ Milenio: Mancera (PRD) 58%; Paredes (PRI) 17.9%; Miranda (PAN) 9.9%; Guerra (PANAL) 1.7%; None 12.6%. Percentages are "gross preferences".

Jalisco/ El Universal: Sandoval (PRI_PVEM) 39.9%; Alfaro (MC) 21.9%; Guzmán (PAN) 15.7%; Garza (PRD) 4.7%; Martínez (PANAL) 1.5%; None: 15.5%. Also gross preferences.

Morelos/ El Diario: Orihuela (PRI_PVEM_PANAL) 32%; Garrido (PRD_PT_MC) 32%; Rivera (PAN) 19%; Yáñez (PSD) 1%; None: 16%. Gross pref. The closest race by far.

Yucatán/ El Universal: Zapata (PRI_PVEM) 48%; Diaz (PAN) 23.5%; Villanueva (PRD_PT_MC) 6.4%; Guzmán (PANAL) 0.8%; None 21.3%. Gross pref.

For the Presidential Milenio-GEA ISA (25-27 June)  says:

Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 39.5%; AMLO (PRD-PT-MC) 24.1%; Vázquez Mota (PAN) 18.9%; Quadri (PANAL) 1.8%; None: 15.7%. Also gross pref.

http://www.adnpolitico.com/encuestas

[jaichind]

Can someone post the link to PREP so we can follow the results tomorrow.  When does the polls close?

[jaichind]

Ah. I found it.
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html

[ag]

keep in mind that states and DF run their own elections, so for their PREPs look at the state election insitutes' websites.

[RogueBeaver]

How quickly do the results come in? IIRC it took a while last time but with EPN's projected margin in high single or low double digits surely they can project within a couple of hours?

[ag]

Complete official results will be there Wednesday night )

Tomorrow there are two counts - neither of them official. First, there will be a randomized sample of 7,500 polling booths (out of 143,000+), which will be analyzed using three different statistical approaches to give a rough prediction. At 11 PM CT, once the polls in Tijuana close, the head of the electoral commission will make a televised statement based, largely, on that. In parallel, there will be reporting of individual precinct results through PREP - this will, probably, get to something like 98% of all polls by late night, but a certain proportion of them will, certainly, not be reported - all sorts of technical hitches. The formal count will start on Wednesday morning and will, most likely, be finished by the end of the day.

To sum up, if the result is clear, it will be announced at 11 PM. If it is close, we'll have to wait till Wednesday night. And if it is very close, it will land in the electoral tribunal, and that would take weeks, if not months.

[Sibboleth]

For comparison or something like that.

[ag]

Voted at around 10:30 AM (Mexico City time). Pretty sizable line - even though no precinct may have more than 750 registered voters. So, turnout seems good - but a fairly strong rain started a couple of hours ago (much earlier in the day than is normal), so might affect turnout in DF. PRD observers notable in my "PANista" precinct.

Full disclosure: this time I was quite close to the straight PAN vote - went for PAN on 5 out of 6 ballots; voted for Mancera (PRD) for the city mayor.

[RogueBeaver]

Where can we find live results? Preferably something that automatically updates.

[ThePrezMex]

Hi all,
I've been intending to log in and contribute on this thread for month, but well, finally got to do it now.
You can watch live results on the sites provided by IFE:
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html

and Google is providing a cool page with maps with feed directly from IFE:
http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results