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Author Topic: Mexico 2012  (Read 24343 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #475 on: July 05, 2012, 02:20:32 pm »
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#Yosoy132 has certain similarities to the Spanish Indignados. One of the main characteristics of these movements is heterogeneity. So, perhaps you are right regarding the authors of that memorandum as a small radical group, in fact #Yosoy132 and Indignados are the aggregation of many small groups and individuals.

I have not a conclusive opinion about the electoral process. It seems clear that Peña Nieto has won and this margin of 3 million of voters is higher than the alleged 1 million of buyed votes. On the other hand all those allegations about the pre-paid cards, media bias and abbusive PRI campaign spending seem to be more than hypothetical. Unfortunately those irregularities are still a part of the landscape and demonstrations in these cases are justified. Anyway AMLO is commiting a mistake if he goes in the same way of 2006.

By the way I've read an interview with EPN, you can check El Pais if you are interested. He expressed himself in moderate and consensual terms, I found his answers a bit hollow too. The lacking of a parlamentary majority is now regarded as a challenge and an opportunity (obvious speech).
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #476 on: July 05, 2012, 04:53:50 pm »
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#Yosoy132 has certain similarities to the Spanish Indignados. One of the main characteristics of these movements is heterogeneity. So, perhaps you are right regarding the authors of that memorandum as a small radical group, in fact #Yosoy132 and Indignados are the aggregation of many small groups and individuals.

I have not a conclusive opinion about the electoral process. It seems clear that Peña Nieto has won and this margin of 3 million of voters is higher than the alleged 1 million of buyed votes. On the other hand all those allegations about the pre-paid cards, media bias and abbusive PRI campaign spending seem to be more than hypothetical. Unfortunately those irregularities are still a part of the landscape and demonstrations in these cases are justified. Anyway AMLO is commiting a mistake if he goes in the same way of 2006.

By the way I've read an interview with EPN, you can check El Pais if you are interested. He expressed himself in moderate and consensual terms, I found his answers a bit hollow too. The lacking of a parlamentary majority is now regarded as a challenge and an opportunity (obvious speech).

I read the interview, too. I found EPN silly, usually repeating the same words. He likes to say "falacia".
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Zuza
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« Reply #477 on: July 05, 2012, 09:58:55 pm »
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http://consulta.mx/web/images/eleccionesmexicopdf/20120701_Perfil_Votante.pdf - voters' profile.

Interesting:
JVM electorate isn't more urban than that of EPN (it's strange for me).

Quadri's voters are very young and (especially notable) very well educated. Is that because of his liberal rhetoric or because for him vote mostly SNTE members?

Apart from Quadri, the youngest is AMLO's electorate while the best educated are JVM's voters. Nevertheless EPN won in all age and education groups.
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Velasco
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« Reply #478 on: July 06, 2012, 07:57:51 am »
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According to BBC World, with almost every vote counted (99.3%):

EPN 38.2%; AMLO 31.56%; JVM 25.42%

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jaichind
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« Reply #479 on: July 06, 2012, 11:50:06 am »
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Looking at the breakdown of the Senate and Congress seats at
http://www.redpolitica.mx/congreso/gamboa-camacho-gil-y-manlio-van-al-congreso

Revealed something interesting

For the Senete, the normalized vote share are
PRI/PVEM     39.16
PRD             28.94
PAN             27.83

For the Congress, the normalized vote share are
PRI/PVEM     39.93
PRD             28.40
PAN             27.23

Yet the seat breakdown are
Senate
PRI/PVEM      62
PRD              27
PAN              38

Congress     240
PRD            125
PAN            116

Note that PRD beat PAN by about the same margin in vote share in both Houses but fell far behind PAN
terms of seat count for the Senete at the same time begin significantly ahead of PAN in seat for Congress.

I looked into why this is.  It really comes down to two effects.  One, PRD vote is much more concentrated in DF and other states in the South where the number of states are few but have greater population, while PAN is weak in the South and strong in the North where the states are many but contain fewer population.  Since Senete seats are driven by 3 seats to each state, PRD suffers relatively.  Another effect is the result of breakdowns in PRI PVEM in terms of alliances.  PRI and PVEM only had an alliance in 10 out of the 32 states but was able to have an alliance in 199 out of 300 House seats.  Split for sure cost PRI PVEM.  Out of the 10 states where they had an alliance it won 8 out of 10.  Out of the 22 states where their splot was split, they had won 10 out of 22.  The PRI PVEM vote split cost it 7 seats.  PRI PVEM, had their votes been combined,  could have come in first in AGUASCALIENTES, COAHUILA, QUERÉTARO, SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, and YUCATÁN.  PRI PVEM could have place second instead of third in BAJA CALIFORNIA and TLAXCALA had their votes been combined.  In six cases, PAN benifited by having an extra seat at the expense of PRI PVEM and in BAJA CALIFORNIA the PRI PVEM seat was lost to PRD.  This pushed up the seats of PAN and opened an even greater gap with PRD.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2012, 08:39:57 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Velasco
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« Reply #480 on: July 09, 2012, 01:25:42 am »
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jaichind
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« Reply #481 on: July 10, 2012, 07:06:07 am »
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IFE results are out.  My FPTP numbers are from PREP and from final results I infered the at large seats.

Congress
PRI+     240 = 177 (FPTP)  + 63 (at large)
PRD+    136 =   70 (FPTP)  + 66 (at large)
PAN+    114 =   53 (FPTP)  + 61 (at large)
PANAL    10 =    0  (FTPT) + 10 (at large)

Senete
PRI+      61 = (18*2)(first place*2)+12(second place) + 13( at large)
PRD+     28 = (6*2) (first place *2)+ 7(second place) + 9 (at large)
PAN      38 = (8*2)(first place*2) + 13(second place) + 9 (at large)
PANAL    1 = 1 (at large)

Using the 8% rule, 240 for PRI+ seems to make sense. PREP has PRI vote share in Congress to be 31.87% and PVEM to be 6.08%.  Null vote was 4.88% and parties less that 3% was .01%. So (31.87+6.08)/(1-.0488-.001)= 39.94% + 8% = 47.94%.  240/500 = 48% so that matches.

For Senate it seems they just did a straight up distribution of at large seats based on vote share. For senate there was 5.59% null vote and .01% votes for parites that came below 3%.  So normalized vote share for at large would be
PRI+   (31.18+5.72)/(1-.0559-.001) = 39.13% *32 = 12.5
PRD+ (18.71+4.62+4.01)/(1-.0559-.001) = 28.99% *32 = 9.3
PAN  (26.34)/(1-.0559-.001) = 27.93% *32  = 8.9

As I mentioned before, PRI and PVEM not having alliances in 22 out of the 32 states cost it a Senete majority.  Had they been allied in all 32 states and vote transfer is perfect (I agree that this is a bold assumption), then PRI+ would have 7 more Senete seats (5 from PAN and 2 from PRD+)
« Last Edit: July 10, 2012, 07:08:19 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #482 on: August 03, 2012, 07:46:35 pm »
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See

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/862243.html

For some reason PRI/PVEM got 251 out of 500 seats in the new Congress.  Based on the 8% rule I did not think this makes sense as PRI/PVEM did not get 42% of the vote.  I assume it had to do with the allocation of FPTP seats between PRI and PVEM.  It could be a lot of them got assigned to PVEM leaving PRI getting a less of them and then when the 8% rule got applied to PRI it was able to get more at large seats, giving PRI+PVEM 251 seats.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Velasco
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« Reply #483 on: August 04, 2012, 09:38:13 am »
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In fact, according with the news that you linked, PRI had 207 seats and PVEM 33, totalling 240. A seat in Toluca state was in dispute. This seat finally went to PRI after the judge pronounced his sentence. So PRI-PVEM are now in 241. Adding the 10 seats of the New Alliance Party (PANAL), EPN could count with the majority in the Mexican Congress.
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ag
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« Reply #484 on: August 31, 2012, 07:54:05 pm »
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The courts have, finally, validated the presidential election. Lopez Obrador, predictably, has called for civil disobedience "even if they call me mad".
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Курица - не птица, Болгария - не заграница.
ag
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« Reply #485 on: August 31, 2012, 07:57:35 pm »
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In fact, according with the news that you linked, PRI had 207 seats and PVEM 33, totalling 240. A seat in Toluca state was in dispute. This seat finally went to PRI after the judge pronounced his sentence. So PRI-PVEM are now in 241. Adding the 10 seats of the New Alliance Party (PANAL), EPN could count with the majority in the Mexican Congress.

Yes, w/ PANAL they'd have the majority in the Chamber, but w/ a slight extra quirk. The Toluca seat going to PRI, rather than PRD, meant that PRI got hit by the 8% rule, so one of its PR seats will go to PVEM. Still 251, if you include PANAL. But there is no majority in the Senate.

BTW, Manuel Bartlett will coordinate the Senate faction of PT Smiley)
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Курица - не птица, Болгария - не заграница.
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