Mexico 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Mexico is about to elect a male Palin by a landslide. Eek:

[redcommander]

Mexico is about to elect a male Palin by a landslide. Eek:

How is he a male Palin? Plus isn't he left-wing?

[RogueBeaver]

Mexico is about to elect a male Palin by a landslide. Eek:

How is he a male Palin? Plus isn't he left-wing?

When a frontrunning presidential candidate can't name a single book they've read and manipulated crime stats to make it look like they tamed crime in their state... forgive me for having zero confidence in said candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[CultureKing]

Why is Obrador running so far behind? I had always assumed that he would come back to finally win the darn thing.

[ag]

Why is Obrador running so far behind? I had always assumed that he would come back to finally win the darn thing.

He lost a lot of popularity because of his reaction to the last election: he was the sourest of losers, and that was a real turn off to the independents, who got scared outright. He is hated by much of the leadership of the biggest party that formally supports him (hence, he is behind the party mayoral candidate in the capital) - they only nominated him because he would have run anyway on minor parties' lines. He hasn't been in office for over 6 years now - the city is no longer in his pocket.  And, probably most importantly, last time he was supported by a big chunk of PRI electorate that hated the party's candidate (Madrazo) and thought he had no chance anyway. This time PRI is united and strong and focused on winning. Lopez Obrador would have to be cannibalizing PAN vote - but he (unlike, say, Ebrard) has zero appeal to PANistas, who'd rather go for PRI, if their own candidate is not viable. Mind it, even last time he only got around 35% of the vote - that was almost enough, but wouldn't be enough this time. His ceiling is, probably, under 40% in any case.

[ag]

Pena Nieto is an empty suit, sure - and fairly corrupt, to top it. Unlike Palin, he is not very ideological, though - that's too complicated for him. But he is very single-minded about winning this one: he's been willing to sacrifice stuff on big scale. Hopefully, at least, he won't be as averse to people smarter than him as Calderon (who is, unquestionably, smarter himself, but is no genius either) has been.

Naturally, one always hopes for a Zedillo, and this time those hopes aren't going to be realized - but, remember, Zedillo only got in under very special circumstances.

[ag]

BTW, just so that people here don't feel to sad about PRD and Lopez Orador In Puebla PRD (on personal order of Lopez Obrador) is running for Senate on Manuel Bartlett. Yes, you read it correctly: that's the Manuel Bartlett who was Secretario de Gobernacion under Miguel de la Madrid in 1988 and who personally "crashed the system" to steal that election from Cardenas. If there has been a more hilarious development in Mexican politics recently, I don't recall one - it beats the transformation of Porfirio Munoz from a PRI Secretary General into a radical oppositionist by a huge margin ))

[ag]

BTW, today's Reforma reports a huge spike in Ebrard's popularity, at least in Mexico City: 67% approve his performance as mayor, 29% disapprove (it was 54% approve to 39% disapprove as recently as December). I have a feeling, this might be buyer's remorse on both flanks. Had Lopez Obrador not insisted on running and leftist nomination gone to Ebrard, the Vazquez Mota collapse would have played to Ebrard's advantage - the PANistas would have supported him en masse against PRI. As it is, Vazquez Mota's weakness is only helping Pena Nieto - few, if any, PAN supporters would even consider Lopez Obrador despite all their hard feelings about PRI in general and Pena Nieto in particular. W/ Ebrard it would have, likely, been a 2-horse race by now - and Ebrard would have had a chance (though, of course PN would have had to be favored still). As it is, it's building up for a PRI landslide.

[ag]

Milenio's running a daily tracking poll. I might start posting it more regularly as we approach the date. But today is a milestone: for the first time Lopez Obrador is in the second spot. I will follow their headline numbers, which ignore those undecided and normalize to 100% those who express preference:

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 51%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 23%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

[ag]

Well, I guess, it makes sense to continue w/ the Milenio tracker. There's been a minor revival of PAN at the expense of PRI For the moment, 23% of those polled do not express preference. Of the rest

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 46%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

[politicus]

Does Mexico have a second round between the two "top dogs", if no one gets over 50%?

[RodPresident]

After 2006, I remember that Calderon promised a kind of run-off, but that was forgotten.

[ag]

Does Mexico have a second round between the two "top dogs", if no one gets over 50%?

No. Regular plurality.

[ag]

After 2006, I remember that Calderon promised a kind of run-off, but that was forgotten.

Not exactly forgotten: all sorts of constitutional reforms have been proposed in Congress, nothing major has passed so far, though some things are still stirring - not the run-off, though. I don't think anybody really wants it - solves no problems, really.

In any case, this year it, likely, won't be an issue at all. PRI is far ahead - and, in any case few PAN voters would ever consider Lopez Obrador, and few Lopez Obrador voters would ever consider any PAN candidate. PRI is, unfortunately, the least unacceptable.

[ag]

Fairly stable in the Milenio poll, but Lopez Obrador can't seem to repeat his forray into the second place.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 49%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 23%
Quadri (PANAL) <1%

[ag]

Pena Nieto is back at 50:

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 50%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 22%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

[ag]

Milenio poll, generally, oscillates quite a bit, but toady seems to be a particularly bad day for Lopez Obrador. Perhaps, if it means anything at all, it could an outcome of a rather strident run-up to the May Day.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 54%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 18%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

[RodPresident]

And rumors of Pena Nieto's homosexuality? I read about a exiled professor who said to have homosexual relationship with him.

[ag]

And rumors of Pena Nieto's homosexuality? I read about a exiled professor who said to have homosexual relationship with him.

Mostly of his heterosexuality. And these are not rumors ) He's had to fess up some time ago.

Anyway, it wouldn't be a huge issue.

PS I wonder, how you get to be "an exiled professor" in Mexico ))

[Bacon King]

And rumors of Pena Nieto's homosexuality? I read about a exiled professor who said to have homosexual relationship with him.

Mostly of his heterosexuality. And these are not rumors ) He's had to fess up some time ago.

Anyway, it wouldn't be a huge issue.

PS I wonder, how you get to be "an exiled professor" in Mexico ))

A quick google search tells me the guy wasn't a professor, but an elementary school principal by the name of Agustín Estrada Negrete. He sought and recieved asylum in the US after being badly beaten after being arrested during a homosexual rights protest in 2009.
 
Also, for what it's worth, I asked a friend of mine attending university in Mexico City about the Nieto rumor, and she said, "he's not gay but everyone thinks he killed his first wife." So make of that what you will.

[ag]

Well, he may or may not have killed his first wife, but he was cheating on her - in fact, he has had to acknowledge some extra kids from the period of his first marriage. He, surely, is an SOB, but whether he is a murderer remains to be seen. In any case, barring something quite unexpected he'll be president, and he is especially popular among the youngsters: he is the cool guy this time around.

Gay rights protests, in general, are fairly safe in Mexico: at least in Mexico City, where even gay marriage is legal. Mexico state is different, of course. Still, I would suspect his real problems w/ Mexico State government involve something more than his sexual orientation.  I wouldn't put it past state policemen to do criminal stuff (this particular case included). But, somehow, I have doubt that such policemen truly discriminate based on sexual orientation: they are much more likely to be equal opportunity goons. This guy does seem to have had a valid claim of persecution verified by reputable agencies, but one really would like to find out more. His claim of actual relationship w/ Pena Nieto, on one hand, would explain his "special treatment", but, on the other hand, sounds quite incredible for many reasons. Though, I guess, there is some chance that a bureaucrat at the state family service (which was one of EPN's last jobs before he was elected to the state legislature in 2003) could have met a primary school teacher somewhere.

It would be a pretty turn of events if this were to turn to be a true story. The scandal would not be EPN being gay per se, but him persecuting a lover. But, of course, the guy's never been properly vetted: this is, literally, only a third campaign for any office in his life (including that for state legislature in 2003). Until 2005 he's been a nobody and his name was No-one. In 2005 he's been spared a proper primary by being a chosen successor of the then Mexico State governor Montiel (who, actually, elevated this guy from complete obscurity) and the general election was not properly competitive. PAN nominated somebody fairly obscure, and PRD nominated a woman who's biography turned out to be pretty much an invention, up to and including her pseudo-Jewish sounding name - she, certainly, wasn't  interested in anyone digging into candidates' pasts. The only one who's got less political vetting before becoming president in recent history is Zedillo: but Zedillo's private life, I believe, was fairly unexciting - and, in any case, he'd been in federal public service all his life, and they do monitor their staff fairly closely. EPN is an entirely different ballgame: that's what makes him somewhat scary indeed.

Early on, I've been expecting a big scandal that would drop the nomination into a lap of one of the shadier PRI bigwigs. But this one seems to be fairly late in the process, so I've reconciled myself to this not happening - it's too late to do a proper replacement.

For the moment, the reputable media ignore the story (the only articles I've found are about Estrada asking for asylum, and these are from some time ago).  The big Pena Nieto scandal in the news today has to do w/ corruption allegations against his campaign.

[ag]

Tomorrow is the debate.

Today's Milenio shows a slight tightening

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

Given my priors on the debating capacity, Lopez Obrador should be in second place next week: he is quite good, and Josefina isn't (nor is EPN, but he is too far ahead for the moment).

[ag]

BTW, I've been delinquent on reporting this campaign. Didn't have a chance to watch the first debate, but, apparently, Quadri rocked. EPN wasn't that great, but better than expected: no obvious gaffes. The others tried but failed to hit him. The net effect is to reduce support of JVM in favor of Quadri (?!). Anyway, today's Milenio is telling us:
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 46%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 24%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Lopez Obrador's vote share hasn't changed, but he is now in the second spot (though, well within the margin of error).

[ag]

They've run Pena Nieto out of a (private and full of the very rich) Mexico City university (Iberoamericana) - he had to leave by a back door, amid shouts of "murderer!".  Not that it changes the Milenio tracker much.
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are completely tied for the second. If only Ebrard were the candidate on the left - it would have been a real race. But, well...