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Author Topic: Mexico 2012  (Read 28996 times)
RodPresident
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« Reply #150 on: May 12, 2012, 08:04:08 am »
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In Brazilian media, relevant news about debate was Julia Orayen's tight..
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« Reply #151 on: May 12, 2012, 10:08:31 pm »
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In Brazilian media, relevant news about debate was Julia Orayen's tight..

Well, it seems like they didn't miss THAT much (apart from Quadri's performance, which is about as relevant).
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« Reply #152 on: May 12, 2012, 10:11:10 pm »
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Pena Nieto seems to be touching his lows - but the beneficiary is Quadri (who seems to be outperforming in his joint goals of getting a neat vote share, and hence, the future financial aid for The Teacher and making sure that Vazquez Mota doesn't have a chance to become competitive, thus ensuring Pena Nieto's election). Anyway, today's Milenio tracker is
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 6%

Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are still tied for the second.
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« Reply #153 on: May 18, 2012, 07:57:25 pm »
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Milenio tracker is very stable:
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 7%

The problem for the opposition: Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are simply tied, so nobody wants to yield. But signs that strategic voting may happen this year emerge: there is markedly less acrimony between PAN and PRD than one would expect based on the 2006 precedent. And then, locally, at least, things seem to happen.
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« Reply #154 on: May 18, 2012, 08:01:50 pm »
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So, locally, in Mexico City things seem to be moving in a completely different direction. Local PANistas and even some of those who earlier in the year considered voting for PRI seem to be massively moving towards PRD - anything to screw PRI and personally Pena Nieto. Today's Reforma has the following results from the Federal District (in brackets change from the same poll in April):

Mayoral election:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 62% (+7%)
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 21% (-9%)
Miranda (PAN) 13% (nil)
Guerra (PANAL) 4% (+2%)


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« Reply #155 on: May 18, 2012, 08:07:04 pm »
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Same Reforma poll of presidential vote intentions - once again, only among the voters in Mexico City (Federal District):

Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC): 53% (+8%)
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM): 27% (-8%)
Vazquez Mota (PAN): 13% (-5%)
Quardi (PANAL): 7% (+5%)

City council:
PRD 44% (+11%) - in a month!
PRI 21% (-4%)
PAN 15% (-2%)
PVEM 6% (-2%)
PT 5% (-3%)
PANAL 5% (+1%)
MC 4% (-1%)
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« Reply #156 on: May 18, 2012, 08:15:28 pm »
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I hope this doesn't lead to another 71 years of PRI rule.
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« Reply #157 on: May 18, 2012, 08:22:51 pm »
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So, at least in Mexico City the situation seems to consolidate. Mancera's lead is simply incredible: 62%!!.  No mayoral candidate since 1997 (when they started electing mayor) has ever got even 50% of the vote (the highest was Cardenas in 1997 - 48.1%; Ebrard got 46.4% in 2006, Lopez Obrador barely scraped through w/ 36.9% in 2000). Admittedly, PAN has an incredibly weak candidate in Miranda, but Paredes should have been very strong. She was supposed to put the city in play for PRI!

PAN's collapsing in the city. You could explain 13% for Miranda - but 13% for Vazquez Mota is incredible. The reason is obvious: the City has come to hate Pena Nieto, so the support is consolidating around the local strong party, which happens to be PRD. Notably, Lopez Obrador is doing very good, but he is nearly 10% behind the mayoral candidate (it was the other way around in 2006). Mancera is widely viewed as an Ebrard's man. One can only imagine how it all would have looked had Ebrard been on the presidential ballot. The city alone would have provided the margin that would be needed to get him ahead of Vazquez Mota - and after that it would have been a two-horse race.

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« Reply #158 on: May 18, 2012, 08:27:36 pm »
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I hope this doesn't lead to another 71 years of PRI rule.

Probably not. Just look at what's happening in the capital. Two months ago a lot of people here for the first time in many years were considering voting for PRI. But now PRI support is literally collapsing. In a month (together w/ the PVEM allies) they lost 9% on the mayoral intention, 8% on the presidential intention and 6% on the city council intention. The only people I personally know, who are still planning to vote Pena Nieto are paid by his campaign. On the other hand, quite a few normally PAN voters I know seem to either have jumped ship to PRD, or about to do so. Not because of what PAN's doing - everybody seems to like, if pity, Josefina. But just out of hatred of PRI.

It would be very hard to reestablish the ancien regime w/ that level of repudiation in the capital. 
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« Reply #159 on: May 18, 2012, 08:34:44 pm »
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Ah, makes sense. How far do your think Quardi will go?
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Lol at those who think Barrow will lose.
Are they trying to fit in as many junk polls before Tuesday as possible?
Glorious news! even Quinnijunk can't get condom hater outside the margin of error, Udall is on track to deliver a good whipping[/q
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« Reply #160 on: May 18, 2012, 08:40:54 pm »
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Ah, makes sense. How far do your think Quardi will go?

Can't go much further. He did perform extraordinarily well in the debate and he has the most sensible proposals in many areas. But a vote for him is a vote to refill the coffers of La Maestra. So, to vote for him you need to be both sufficiently politically engaged to know about the debates - and sufficiently disengaged not to know, who is behind him. I can't believe there could be more than 10% of such voters (and even that including the captive vote that belongs to La Maestra herself).
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« Reply #161 on: May 19, 2012, 04:16:24 am »
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What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?
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« Reply #162 on: May 19, 2012, 09:13:33 am »
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What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).
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« Reply #163 on: May 19, 2012, 04:27:49 pm »
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What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).
And you dislike her because?
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« Reply #164 on: May 19, 2012, 04:43:50 pm »
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What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).

Didn't she used to be a powerful person in the PRI?
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Are they trying to fit in as many junk polls before Tuesday as possible?
Glorious news! even Quinnijunk can't get condom hater outside the margin of error, Udall is on track to deliver a good whipping[/q
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« Reply #165 on: May 19, 2012, 05:30:30 pm »
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What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).
And you dislike her because?

I am not a fan of her because of her record a teachers union boss.  Mexican schools are a failure and the teacher's unions are one of the main causes of this.  She also has a record of being a political mercenary given how she has jumped from being in the PRI to being against it to being for it and so on.  This goes for the various factions within the PRI where she flip-flops between different power brokers. Her relationship with the PAN is a similar record of flip flops.
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« Reply #166 on: May 20, 2012, 12:41:34 am »
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She is the head of one of the most powerful and dangerous organizations in Mexico - and I am including the cartels. Teachers unions (both the one she heads and, unfortunately, the opposition) are, probably, the greatest obstacle to Mexico's development and she has headed the main one for a long time now. She is smart, powerful and evil. If she were merely corrupt (which she, of course, is), I wouldn't have minded her that much.

Talking about her "flip-flopping" is, actually, misleading. It's the parties that are flipping and flopping around her Smiley)  The best reason to support Vazquez Mota is that she and La Maestra hate each other (Gordillo, essentially, pushed Vazquez Mota out of her job as the Education Secretary early in Calderon's administration). Though, one should add, Lopez Obrador isn't a fan either - which is, likewise, probably the best reason to like him.
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« Reply #167 on: May 20, 2012, 12:46:32 am »
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If Milenio's poll is to be believed, pre-debate status-quo seems to be restoring. Though, probably, just random variation.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 48%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 22%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Meantime, pretty big anti-Pena manifestations in Mexico City seem to be catching fire. It just shows how different the City and the country are.
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« Reply #168 on: May 20, 2012, 01:06:35 am »
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Can anybody explain to me what makes these Mexican teachers' unions worse than other teachers' unions [are accused of being]? Is it anything specific?
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« Reply #169 on: May 20, 2012, 01:43:27 am »
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To begin with, it's ONE UNION (SNTE).

Basically, they have established and enforced a system, under which teachers did not have to even be able to read or write in order for them to "do" their job (the government is attempting to change this right now, but is facing enormous resistance). The jobs are frequently (or, at least, have been, until now: again, the government is feebly trying to end this) inheritable, literally, from parent to child. Union officials, their goons and others on good terms with them are frequently able to collect full-time salaries in multiple schools simultaneously, without every teaching a class in any of them. Union regulations encourage large class size and make any sort of non-standard activity impossible (no magnet programs, no advanced anything). Essentially, the national teachers Union works as a gigantic patronage network, that is controlling most aspects of the educational system. Mexico spends a large share of its budget on education - most of it goes to teachers' (and "teachers'") salaries, and nearly all of it is fully controlled by the Union. Any attempt of even most menial reform is met with strikes (sometimes very prolonged) or even riots.

Rank-and-file teachers aren't getting too much out of it, but the Union is enormously rich and powerful (the rumor has it, La Maestra pays the largest monthly personal credit card bills in Mexico Smiley) ). The Union effectively controls the vote of its members and their families (teachers are extremely dependent on the Union, so few disobey) - hence the guaranteed above-threshold vote for PANAL in recent years, irrespective of whom they nominate. There is also a splinter union (CNTE), which hates La Maestra, because she has, actually, agreed to some minor attempts of quality control by the government: these people believe that somehow violates their god-given rights.

The result of it is that the educational system has deteriorated to the point, when it can't even perform the role of the social lift. Public schools employ semi-literate teachers to produce large numbers of semi-literate graduates, who are not capable of real university-level studies. As almost all public education expenditures (no matter how large) are captured by the Union, quality of physical facilities in many cases has deteriorated even further.  The middle class has almost completely abandoned the public system - anybody, who has even most meagre resources available, sends their children to private schools.  Since, however, the Union has also fairly substantial control over the teachers' training and certification, the quality of teachers in private schools, even those not unionized, is not much better.
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« Reply #170 on: May 25, 2012, 10:28:20 pm »
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Milenio report is generally stable. Now Lopez Obrador is back in the second and Quadri down.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 26%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%

Anti-Pena demonstrations continue. Their participants blame the media for exaggerating Pena's lead. In particular, many people on the street claim Milenio (and some others) fake the polls to make Pena seem inevitable. There is, however, no direct evidence that I've seen, so I will continue reporting this one.

Part of the problem is, Mexico City is very different from the rest of the country - it normally is. I am still to hear anybody not formally employed by a PRI or PVEM campaign here to say anything nice about the guy - or to claim s/he'd vote for him. But, of course, this means nothing - except reinforcing the local public opinion that they are beeing lied to.
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« Reply #171 on: May 29, 2012, 03:32:28 pm »
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     May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto saw his lead narrow in the latest opinion
poll after thousands of students marched against him.
     Support for Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party slid to 35.6 percent in the survey from 37.9 percent the
week earlier, polling company Consulta Mitofsky said today. His
lead over the nearest rival has narrowed to 13.9 points from
17.5 earlier this month.
     Students from both public and private universities have
held protests in major cities since May 17, accusing much of the
media of a bias in favor of the PRI. Some of the protesters have
demonstrated against Pena Nieto, saying they do not want a
return of the party that rule for 71 years until 2000 and which
has been accused of corruption. More marches are scheduled for
tomorrow.
     “These marches will influence the election,” said Javier
Oliva, a political analyst at Mexico’s National Autonomous
University. “It might not cause Pena Nieto to lose, but it puts
the importance of polices for young people such as education and
access to technology on the table.”
     Support for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the
Democratic Revolution rose to 21.7 percent in the latest poll
from 20.5 percent last week, Mexico City-based Mitofsky said.
Josefina Vazquez Mota of the leading National Action Party saw
her support little changed at 20.4 percent, from 20.1 percent in
the previous survey.
     The survey of 1,000 people was taken May 25 to May 27. It
had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
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« Reply #172 on: May 29, 2012, 08:33:08 pm »
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It's essentially no change - that's how these things've been going all the time, in all polls (the difference  w/ the Milenio results I report here is due to the fact that those normalize the total to 100%, excluding the undecided, and this one doesn't). It's that sam 2:1:1 split, with a clear advantage of Pena Nieto, and Lopez Obrador and Vazquez Mota roughly at par. Yes, Pena Nieto may be very slightly down - he no longer gets more votes than the other two together - but he is still the overwhelming favorite.
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« Reply #173 on: May 30, 2012, 10:17:37 am »
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Milenio today

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 27%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%
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« Reply #174 on: May 30, 2012, 01:50:50 pm »
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I tend to support AMLO.  But...at best, he'll get second.  Nieto has an unfortunately wide lead.
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