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Author Topic: Mexico 2012  (Read 28648 times)
ag
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« Reply #300 on: June 10, 2012, 10:59:34 pm »
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As I've put on the edit.

Nobody is proposing Mexico adopting the dollar - Banxico has been reasonably good at managing our own monetary policy recently. But making sure the Slims of this world have to compete w/ the Buffets is, undoubtedly, a worthy objective.

Mmm... the little this kind of policy was tried here, Slims and Buffets joined to make things worse.
Where?
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« Reply #301 on: June 10, 2012, 11:04:53 pm »
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I don't share your enthusiasm at all, but I can see that It's not the cluesless proposals that popped throughout the region in the 90's.

Unlike the rest of the continent, Mexico has never been clueless on it. NAFTA was a very well though through decision, and it has done a lot to change Mexico. We aren't in South America, you know Smiley)

Well, I was there in 95(just after the country went down, I believe) and in the early 00's. I really couldn't see this. It was also not what the regular guys on the street told me. But this was so long ago...
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« Reply #302 on: June 10, 2012, 11:15:19 pm »
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As I've put on the edit.

Nobody is proposing Mexico adopting the dollar - Banxico has been reasonably good at managing our own monetary policy recently. But making sure the Slims of this world have to compete w/ the Buffets is, undoubtedly, a worthy objective.

Mmm... the little this kind of policy was tried here, Slims and Buffets joined to make things worse.
Where?


Banks (they practically started to steal us). Telecom (bills went mad, services went crappier). Press (It was just international capital got in and It stopped having any respectability). Urbanism (they installed the suburban closed community as the well-off fool's dream)...
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« Reply #303 on: June 10, 2012, 11:37:04 pm »
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Banks (they practically started to steal us). Telecom (bills went mad, services went crappier). Press (It was just international capital got in and It stopped having any respectability). Urbanism (they installed the suburban closed community as the well-off fool's dream)...

Brazil is one of the least integrated major countries in the world - it's a pretty closed economy, isn't it?

Anyway, telecoms are mad and crappy here already - thank you, Mr. Slim. Banks are already mostly foreign - and i don't have ANY problem w/ it. It is Mr. Slim who invests in NYTimes and El Pais right now, and not the other way around, and Televisa is a major player in the US market already - no reason why this should change. No problem w/ suburban communities - I don't want to live there, but who am I to impose my preferences on others. Anyway, no need for foreigners to think that up. And closed communities here exist in the very city - no need for suburbs for that.
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« Reply #304 on: June 10, 2012, 11:39:28 pm »
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Well, I was there in 95(just after the country went down, I believe) and in the early 00's. I really couldn't see this. It was also not what the regular guys on the street told me. But this was so long ago...

I've been living in Mexico since 2000. Mexico has grown huge in international trade over the years. That it hasn't helped the country develop is due to rampant domestic monopolism and the pathetic educational system. But what the years have shown is that Mexicans have no reason to be afraid of trade and international competition: they are good at it.
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« Reply #305 on: June 10, 2012, 11:58:14 pm »
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... closed communities here exist in the very city - no need for suburbs for that.

Yuck!


Brazil is one of the least integrated major countries in the world - it's a pretty closed economy, isn't it?


Well, the integration processes went so awful (and I would not put the blame on the guys who tried It, They were competent on what They were doing) that It streghtened alterglobalization and even Natioinalist positions.
It's just that a country with the economic and geographic caracteristics ours have cannot play as if It was Singapore.
BTW, what is the effect of that kind of policies to the average guy? I'm asking It because the tentative to implant them in Brazil caused massive lowering of wages, brutal informalization of economy, destruction of middle class professionals' markets and last, but not least, an epic growth of the national debt in a manner I simply could not believe some government willing to keep in power would allow to happen. Rich Paulistas, on the other hand, were very, very well, thanx.
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« Reply #306 on: June 11, 2012, 12:04:50 am »
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Well, I was there in 95(just after the country went down, I believe) and in the early 00's. I really couldn't see this. It was also not what the regular guys on the street told me. But this was so long ago...

I've been living in Mexico since 2000. Mexico has grown huge in international trade over the years. That it hasn't helped the country develop is due to rampant domestic monopolism and the pathetic educational system. But what the years have shown is that Mexicans have no reason to be afraid of trade and international competition: they are good at it.

Well, we've been good on It as well. At least we've dominated and became big on every area we tried, to the point that governments that defends free trade openly, on backstages used the most awful artifices to stop Brasilian capital lead companies. The internal result, yet, wasn't worth at all. Only when It started to be some industrial policy again It started to be interesting for Zé da Silva.
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« Reply #307 on: June 11, 2012, 12:05:33 am »
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Honestly, I don't even know what you are talking about. Brazil has never really tried to integrate into the world economy: you can't ascribe any sins to a policy that has never been tried.
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« Reply #308 on: June 11, 2012, 12:08:26 am »
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Well, we've been good on It as well. At least we've dominated and became big on every area we tried, to the point that governments that defends free trade openly, on backstages used the most awful artifices to stop Brasilian capital lead companies. The internal result, yet, wasn't worth at all. Only when It started to be some industrial policy again It started to be interesting for Zé da Silva.

Who has ever tried to stop "Brazilian-lead" companies - and why don't "they" ever do this to Mexican companies, I wonder Smiley)
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« Reply #309 on: June 11, 2012, 12:49:35 am »
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Well, we've been good on It as well. At least we've dominated and became big on every area we tried, to the point that governments that defends free trade openly, on backstages used the most awful artifices to stop Brasilian capital lead companies. The internal result, yet, wasn't worth at all. Only when It started to be some industrial policy again It started to be interesting for Zé da Silva.

Who has ever tried to stop "Brazilian-lead" companies - and why don't "they" ever do this to Mexican companies, I wonder Smiley)

Small airships. Some country around which seems to be a cold Australia and have a traditional company on the sector made a mess some years ago...
Agricultural goods. All the time fake claims of not reaching standards are always being made and never being sustained...
Oil. Bids seem to be made, sometimes, to the prejudice of some countries if they avoid one state-owned company to get well...
Siderurgy. National companies have a nice share on that same coldaustralia-like country, and since then, unions are much more active than before, with support of sectors that previously were staunchly anti-unions.
The ones that hadn't found too much opposition, were brewery (but It's more a joint-venture with belgians, and the headquarters are in Europe) and mining.

So, unless You believe that industries are really a matter of History and that soft economy is the only thing that matters, I'm seeing a quite noticeable presence of "Brazilian-lead" companies. And "they" seem to be much more concerned with goods production than with soft economy. Despite declaring the opposite.

But if Mexico is willing to keep It soft, and believes that It is feasible to sustain the whole country this way, I gave up warning the effects of all those policies. For such kind of country, It may work. Yet, I have my doubts a country that sized can do It. You have such a population and needs such a infrastructure, It will really be an achievement.
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« Reply #310 on: June 11, 2012, 12:57:22 am »
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For the moment, what free trade has done to Mexico is to make it a manufacturing giant Smiley) Unsurprising, of course: that's where the comparative advantage is. You now are trying to protect yourselves from Mexican cars, not Chinese or American. In Mexico they are building car factories to export stuff. Notably, though, I haven't heard of Mexican government banning imports of Embraer planes - Aeromexico, actually, has a few orders outstanding right now. What if Mexicans were to decide to link cars and planes? Do you think Embraer workers would be happy?

And Mexican-based multinationals are doing fine buying up companies all over the world (including the US). America Movil, Cemex, Grupo Bimbo, FEMSA, etc.: don't see where they've been wronged (well, of course, the likes of Chavez do confiscate stuff, perhaps you had that in mind).

If Brazil chooses to diminish itself by shunning competition, it's up to Brazilian voters, of course, but I do consider that to be imbecility Smiley)
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 01:05:14 am by ag »Logged
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« Reply #311 on: June 11, 2012, 01:31:21 am »
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Doesn't Embraer the 3rd or 4th airplane manufacturer in the world?
1 and 2 are Airbus and Boeing (or the reverse) with 3 and 4 being Embraer and Bombardier (or the reverse, if I remember well.
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« Reply #312 on: June 11, 2012, 01:33:43 am »
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For the moment, what free trade has done to Mexico is to make it a manufacturing giant Smiley) Unsurprising, of course: that's where the comparative advantage is. You now are trying to protect yourselves from Mexican cars, not Chinese or American. In Mexico they are building car factories to export stuff. Notably, though, I haven't heard of Mexican government banning imports of Embraer planes - Aeromexico, actually, has a few orders outstanding right now. What if Mexicans were to decide to link cars and planes? Do you think Embraer workers would be happy?

And Mexican-based multinationals are doing fine buying up companies all over the world (including the US). America Movil, Cemex, Grupo Bimbo, FEMSA, etc.: don't see where they've been wronged (well, of course, the likes of Chavez do confiscate stuff, perhaps you had that in mind).

If Brazil chooses to diminish itself by shunning competition, it's up to Brazilian voters, of course, but I do consider that to be imbecility Smiley)

Well, the matter of cars is a little more tricky than this. They were planned to be sold to American markets, that silly giant stuff they like there. With the 2008 crash, the companies (which are American, Japanese and German - am I forgetting someone? - not Mexican neither Brazilian) lowered prices and threw big cars on other markets. The main traffic problem on my city today are those awful big cars that doesn't fit on the lanes, neither on parking. And everybody is buying them, because the companies gives every kind of advantage to acquire one of them, even creating banks to give lower interest rates.
Yet, the main restriction on competitivity was against small Chinese cars, to protect Brazilian AND Mexican production. You're wrong on this information.
So, in the end, companies everywhere are making less money than they planned. People are buying unsustainable products and making things worse in the cities.
I really would support restriction on competition, but if It was to make It difficult to buy SUV's, Brazilian or Mexican produced, and making easier to buy the smaller ones, Chinese, Brazilian or whatever.

BTW, what Chávez have to do with this? Do You also need a strawman as the average Brazilian free-market defender needs? I really thought You were doing better than that. Smiley
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« Reply #313 on: June 11, 2012, 01:35:34 am »
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Doesn't Embraer the 3rd or 4th airplane manufacturer in the world?
1 and 2 are Airbus and Boeing (or the reverse) with 3 and 4 being Embraer and Bombardier (or the reverse, if I remember well.

If you count every size, yes.
If You take big planes out, than Embraer and Bombardier are alone.
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« Reply #314 on: June 11, 2012, 01:48:38 am »
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The discussion got far from the election stuff and It's really late now.
Maybe tomorrow We can have another thread. And type while drinking some Imbev beer. Tongue
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« Reply #315 on: June 11, 2012, 10:37:14 am »
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Yet, the main restriction on competitivity was against small Chinese cars, to protect Brazilian AND Mexican production. You're wrong on this information.

Considering, that right now this is the biggest sore point in Mexican-Brazilian relations (quite prominent in Mexican media, BTW), I could hardly be wrong. Brazil has asked for limitations on Mexican imports - going against existing international agreements. Mexican response to Brazil was to go freak itself (pretty much in those many words): we don't play those games here.
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« Reply #316 on: June 11, 2012, 10:39:04 am »
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BTW, what Chávez have to do with this?

He's been expropriating Mexican investments: talk about playing dirty against a fellow third-world nation.

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« Reply #317 on: June 11, 2012, 10:44:36 am »
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Doesn't Embraer the 3rd or 4th airplane manufacturer in the world?
1 and 2 are Airbus and Boeing (or the reverse) with 3 and 4 being Embraer and Bombardier (or the reverse, if I remember well.

If you count every size, yes.
If You take big planes out, than Embraer and Bombardier are alone.

True. Russians and Chinese are trying to enter, though. Russians have managed to get a huge order from Mexico's Interjet for the new Superjet plane - but, of course, that was before a recent demonstration-flight crash in Indonesia. I'd be more scared of the forthcoming Chinese competition Smiley
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« Reply #318 on: June 12, 2012, 10:21:36 am »
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Interestingly, the public opinion seems to be at odds with my debate impressions (at least according to Milenio tracker) - JVM gains from everyone and almost closes the gap w/ AMLO

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 44%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 27%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 3%
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« Reply #319 on: June 12, 2012, 04:49:27 pm »
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Quadri would have been a great candidate if he wasn't the lamb of that corrupt teacher. Someone to support if you are a leftist and you don't like Peńa Nieto and still think AMLO isn't the best Mexico can have as President.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #320 on: June 12, 2012, 06:14:05 pm »
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Quadri would have been a great candidate if he wasn't the lamb of that corrupt teacher. Someone to support if you are a leftist ...

Within Mexican politics, Quadri is, probably, the most rightwing candidate out there. He is, of course, socially liberal and green, but on economics he is a surprisingly solid liberal: private investment and privatization (including energy sector), free trade, etc., etc. In a political spectrum that ranges from a national socialist (Lopez Obrador) to a Christian (Catholic) socialist (Vazquez Mota) Quadri, most definitely, stands out ideologically.
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« Reply #321 on: June 12, 2012, 06:40:22 pm »
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Quadri would have been a great candidate if he wasn't the lamb of that corrupt teacher. Someone to support if you are a leftist ...

Within Mexican politics, Quadri is, probably, the most rightwing candidate out there. He is, of course, socially liberal and green, but on economics he is a surprisingly solid liberal: private investment and privatization (including energy sector), free trade, etc., etc. In a political spectrum that ranges from a national socialist (Lopez Obrador) to a Christian (Catholic) socialist (Vazquez Mota) Quadri, most definitely, stands out ideologically.

I know, but he seems to be the most sane, the most "alternative", attractive as a candidate. However, I may be wrong.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #322 on: June 19, 2012, 02:44:52 pm »
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For the first time in a long time today's Milenio tracker is showing JVM (barely) ahead of AMLO:

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 46%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 25%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 3%
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« Reply #323 on: June 19, 2012, 06:46:43 pm »
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I found a web called "adnpolitico" full of Mexican polls.

http://www.adnpolitico.com/encuestas/2012/06/19/consulta-mitofksy-da-157-puntos-de-ventaja-a-pena-nieto

Consulta Mitofsky (15-17 June) says: Peńa Nieto (PRI) 44.4%; AMLO (PRD) 28.7%; Vázquez Mota (PAN) 24.3%; Quadri (PANAL) 2.3%.

Excelsior (13-14 June) puts Vázquez Mota in second place: PRI 42%; PAN 29%; PRD 27%.

Milenio (15-17 June): PRI 44.4%; PRD 27.1%; PAN 26%.

There are polls every day. No suspense except for the second place.
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« Reply #324 on: June 20, 2012, 02:14:33 pm »
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Yet, the main restriction on competitivity was against small Chinese cars, to protect Brazilian AND Mexican production. You're wrong on this information.

Considering, that right now this is the biggest sore point in Mexican-Brazilian relations (quite prominent in Mexican media, BTW), I could hardly be wrong. Brazil has asked for limitations on Mexican imports - going against existing international agreements. Mexican response to Brazil was to go freak itself (pretty much in those many words): we don't play those games here.

Oh, I was taking care of some family business (my father-in-law passed away) and didn't had time for the forum.
It seems that the Brazilian government position (and It is also a matter with the EU, Dilma had a bitter conversation with Merkel over this) is that many American and European industries are practicing dumping, to get rid of products made by their plants abroad. I'll try to find some comment from the economic area, when I have time.
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