Mexico 2012

[ag]

Where can we find live results? Preferably something that automatically updates.

Pretty much every Mexican newspaper/channel will have a link after 8 PM CT. They will all look the same and update at very similar rate: it's PREP, an official reporting system. You'd be able to see a scan of every single precinct (up to 750 voters) protocol as the night develops.

[ThePrezMex]

Milenio newspaper just gave the results of their exit poll in Federal District for the Mayor election (poll done by GEA-ISA).

Link in Spanish:
http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/cfcc5f12a8baea4b4ad5183a596fe728

The candidate of the leftist alliance (PRD-PT-MC) Miguel Angel Mancera has 61% in the exit poll
Beatriz Paredes of PRI has 23%
Isabel Miranda of PAN has 14% and
Rosario Guerra of PANAL has 2%

The last tracking poll that Milenio had published on Wednesday had Mancera with almost 66%, Beatriz Paredes with 20.5%, Miranda with 11% and Rosario Guerra 1.8%

So while the result was as expected and Mancera won by a landslide, the margin was slightly closer than the last poll showed.

As I'm pretty sure has been discussed earlier on this thread, exit polls of state elections can be announced at the closing of the polls, in the case of Federal District it was at 6pm CST

[RogueBeaver]

Which states are the ones to watch?

[ThePrezMex]

Which states are the ones to watch?

I would watch in particular the 6 that also have governor elections: Federal District (Mayor), Chiapas, Yucatan, Morelos, Jalisco and Tabasco. I would be looking in the exit polls that are coming out now how the PRI is doing with respect to the latest polls. Take into account that four of those six states have a strong support for Lopez Obrador: Federal District, Chiapas, Morelos and Tabasco (his home state). In Yucatan the fight is between PRI and PAN as it would typically be in Jalisco, but this time around a third candidate supported by the left (apart of the PRD candidate) was polling a strong second behind PRI.

[jaichind]

It looks like PRI flipped Chiapas


     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Institutional Revolutionary Party
is leading in governors’ races in three Mexican states, TV
Azteca said, citing exit polls.
     The PRI, as the party is known, is ahead in races in
Jalisco, Chiapas and Yucatan, the Mexico City-based network
reported, based on the surveys of voters at polling stations.
Contests in three other states are too close to call based on
the margin of error, TV Azteca said.

[ThePrezMex]

I forgot to include Guanajuato in the previous post! (it is 6 states plus the Federal District). Guanajuato is PAN's stronghold.

So, new exit polls have come out for the governor elections.
These are from El Universal newspaper:

Yucatan: PRI 58%  PAN 33%  PRD 8%  PANAL 1%  (PRI announced another exit poll by Parametria pollster that had PRI between 49 and 56%, PAN between 35 and 40% -- strange that the PRI announced poll is a bit closer than the newspaper one).

Chiapas: PRI-Green 58% PRD 23% PAN 12% and a local Chiapas party 7%  (TV Azteca network announced another exit poll by Mendoza Blanco pollster than gave PRI around 64%!)

Guanajuato: PAN 45%  PRI 37% PRD 16% others 2%

Morelos and Tabasco were declared too close to call by El Universal's exit poll.

These are big results for PRI in my opinion, since the margin in Chiapas is huge and their lose in Guanajuato relatively close.

The source is just El Universal newspaper main webpage.. results in the ticker:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

[ThePrezMex]

yes, and in Jalisco, El Universal exit poll says:

PRI 44%
Citizen's Movement 33%
PAN 16%
PRD 4%
PANAL 2%

Looks like PRI was able to hold the challenge from the Citizen's Movement candidate (supported by Lopez Obrador)

[jaichind]

Well if Tabasco is too close to call then that is not great for PRI since they currently hold it.  I guess it is expected since like you said that AMLO running might be helping PRD there.  I think when the PRI took Tabasco in 2006 it was not on the same voting date as the Prez election where AMLO could have helped the PRD candidate.  I guess positive for PRI is Morelos where it is currently held by PAN and PRI might be able to flip it.

I forgot to include Guanajuato in the previous post! (it is 6 states plus the Federal District). Guanajuato is PAN's stronghold.

So, new exit polls have come out for the governor elections.
These are from El Universal newspaper:

Yucatan: PRI 58%  PAN 33%  PRD 8%  PANAL 1%  (PRI announced another exit poll by Parametria pollster that had PRI between 49 and 56%, PAN between 35 and 40% -- strange that the PRI announced poll is a bit closer than the newspaper one).

Chiapas: PRI-Green 58% PRD 23% PAN 12% and a local Chiapas party 7%  (TV Azteca network announced another exit poll by Mendoza Blanco pollster than gave PRI around 64%!)

Guanajuato: PAN 45%  PRI 37% PRD 16% others 2%

Morelos and Tabasco were declared too close to call by El Universal's exit poll.

These are big results for PRI in my opinion, since the margin in Chiapas is huge and their lose in Guanajuato relatively close.

The source is just El Universal newspaper main webpage.. results in the ticker:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

[ag]

Well if Tabasco is too close to call then that is not great for PRI since they currently hold it.  I guess it is expected since like you said that AMLO running might be helping PRD there.  I think when the PRI took Tabasco in 2006 it was not on the same voting date as the Prez election where AMLO could have helped the PRD candidate.  

Not only was Chiapas voting a month later in 2006, but Lopez Obrador wasn't even the only tabasqueno presidential candidate: PRI's Roberto Madrazo was an ex-governor of Tabasco.

Keep in mind, though. The PRD candidate in Tabasco until 2006 was a big local PRI honcho - the PRI candidate used to be his secretary

[Double Carpet]

TV link:

aztecanoticias.com.mx/tvenvivo

[jaichind]

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto leads his rivals in voting today as he seeks
to return the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party to
power, according to an exit poll from GEA-ISA.
     Pena Nieto has 42 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party, who has
31 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 23 percent, according to Mexico City-based
polling company. GEA-ISA questioned 3,588 people and the poll
had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

[RogueBeaver]

TV link:

aztecanoticias.com.mx/tvenvivo

For those of us who don't understand Spanish?

[jaichind]

PENA NIETO TAKES 51.7% OF MEXICO VOTE IN PRELIMINARY COUNT:IFE
Of course this is based on a few hundred votes.

[jaichind]

*MEXICO'S PRI WILL HAVE MAJORITY OF SENATE, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO HAS WON MEXICAN ELECTION, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO WON WITH MARGIN OF 5 TO 6 MILLION VOTES: VIDEGARAY

VIDEGARAY is General Coordinator of Nieto's campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

So what would the split be? Looks like an 8-9 point margin to me.

[jaichind]

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Enrique Pena Nieto is ahead in
Mexico’s presidential vote today as he seeks to propel the once-
dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party back to power,
according to an exit poll from BGC, Ulises Beltran y Asociados.
     Pena Nieto has 40 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, with
32 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 25 percent, according to the survey of voters
at polling stations. The poll was released by BGC Excelsior.

[RogueBeaver]

I assume Mexican exit polls are just as trashy as their American counterparts, but I'd be surprised if EPN dropped below 40 when all is said and done.

[CatoMinor]

Voter turnout in Quintana Roo is 203.3%. Um.........

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN concedes.

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Josefina Vazquez Mota, the candidate
of the ruling National Action Party, said the early results of
voting in today’s election don’t favor her.
     Vazquez Mota made the comments in a televised speech in
Mexico City.

[RogueBeaver]

Voter turnout in Quintana Roo is 203.3%. Um.........

Computer problem, right?

[ag]

The national exit poll says 42% EPN, 31% AMLO, 24% JVM, 3% Quadri

PREP can be found here:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones2012/IFE/

[ThePrezMex]

Yes, all the exit polls were consistent:

Milenio GEA-ISA: PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 23%  PANAL 4%
TV Azteca:          PRI (39-42.7%) PRD (30.8-34.4%) PAN (22.1-25.7%) PANAL (2.1-3.1%)
Excelsior (BGC):  PRI 40%  PRD 32%  PAN 25% PANAL 3%
El Universal:        PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 24% PANAL 3%

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN getting around 28-29% of the vote in Prez, Senete, and Congerss rates.  Pretty consistent.  

[jaichind]

http://www.prepchiapas2012.com/home_gobernador.cfm

is PREP for Chiapas. Just found it

[ThePrezMex]

http://www.prepchiapas2012.com/home_gobernador.cfm

is PREP for Chiapas. Just found it

The Green Party-PRI-PANAL candidate Manuel Velasco is winning in a landslide. He is only 31yo! His grandfather (who was a very prominent physician) was governor in the 1970s.