Mexico 2012

[ag]

Very strange returns from Tamaulipas. First of all, they seem to be reporting faster then the rest. Second, JVM is ahead by a good margin there - which accounts for her second spot nationwide in PREP for the moment. This is a PRI stronghold, for whatever its worth. Perhaps, that one state got enough of PRI? Might be a sign for the next state elections? Still too early, of course.

[jaichind]

Is Manuel Velasco from the Green Party.  So far he is getting 37% of the vote under the Green Line and only 19% of the vote under the PRI line.

The Green Party-PRI-PANAL candidate Manuel Velasco is winning in a landslide. He is only 31yo! His grandfather (who was a very prominent physician) was governor in the 1970s.

[ag]

Is Manuel Velasco from the Green Party.  So far he is getting 37% of the vote under the Green Line and only 19% of the vote under the PRI line.

The Green Party-PRI-PANAL candidate Manuel Velasco is winning in a landslide. He is only 31yo! His grandfather (who was a very prominent physician) was governor in the 1970s.

Remember: this is not a real green party. It's just a convenient line.

[jaichind]

I get that.  I was more asking about the preception of the PRI in Chiapas.  I wonder if this is case of the voting population having a positive impression of the candidate but does not support the party and voting for him under the Green Party line is a way of they saying to themselves "I did not vote for the PRI"

Remember: this is not a real green party. It's just a convenient line.

[ag]

I get that.  I was more asking about the preception of the PRI in Chiapas.  I wonder if this is case of the voting population having a positive impression of the candidate but does not support the party and voting for him under the Green Party line is a way of they saying to themselves "I did not vote for the PRI"

Remember: this is not a real green party. It's just a convenient line.

Not. It's just that this guy is nominated by PVEM, he is the member of that party, and PRI has agreed to give the Chiapas governorship to PVEM as part of the coalition deal. So, it's logical to vote for a PVEM guy on the PVEM line.

[RogueBeaver]

Quick question: why does the count take so long? 90 minutes in and barely 1% has been counted. Or will it speed up soon?

[ag]

Quick question: why does the count take so long? 90 minutes in and barely 1% has been counted. Or will it speed up soon?

It will, but it will still be slow. The count is very decentralized: there are over 143,000 booths, each one has to count, prepare a lot of copies of the protocols and scan one of them into the reporting system. At each stage everything is monitored by god knows how many people. It's actually 3 and a a half hours since the polls closed in much of the country. The states that finished after that haven't yet reported anything. We will get an official declaration of the trend, based on a randomized sample of about 7500 booths in just over 2 hours (this count is going on separately). The official count is next Wednesday

[ag]

An interesting aside. Remember the annulled municipal results in Morelia some months ago in Morelia? It's being rerun today. W/ almost 88% reporting, so far it is

PRI/PVEM 117,515
PAN/PANAL 111,251
PRD/PT/MC 26,788

It's still close, though, this time, it seems PRI may win without the fotofinish.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

I hear networks are projecting Pena Nieto now... Idk what to make of this. Also the fact that PRI regained my Mexican home state Jalisco for the first time in 18 years. Wow.

[ag]

I hear networks are projecting Pena Nieto now... Idk what to make of this. Also the fact that PRI regained my Mexican home state Jalisco for the first time in 18 years. Wow.

It's been obvious for a long time now, so you may make whatever you want out of it

[ThePrezMex]

The CIRT (stands for the Association of Radio and Television Networks) commissioned a quick count to Consulta Mitofsky. The results are:

PRI 40.3%
PRD 31.8%
PAN 25.4%
PANAL 2.5%

I don't know if it has been discussed here before, but the quick count is based on real votes (as opposed to exit polls that are as their name says, polls). This quick count uses a sample of around 7,000 precincts from all over the country, which is supposed to make it representative of the total votes (taken into account mix of urban/rural, etc). The results of each precinct are posted in a sign on the doors of the precinct, so people can go and see their precinct results.
IFE will release its own quick count at 11:45pm CST.

And responding to a previous question, yes, the results are coming in pretty slowly.

[ag]

In general, PAN is doing miserable today. But in the Northeast, that hasn't been its stronghold, it is doing remarkably well. I've already noted that it is winning hands-off in Tamaulipas (2 senate seats are extremely likely at this point, as well as a bunch of House seats pick-ups), it's ahead for a plurality in Nuevo Leon legislature, and seems to be holding Monterrey mayoralty. One bright spot in the generally horrid night.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

[Tender Branson]

What is Pena Nieto like ?

Didn't read much about Mexico so far ...

[Peter the Lefty]

I wonder of AMLO will try to claim fraud and start riots again.  Speaking of which, can we be sure that the PRD will dump him after this for someone more credible, since they'll need someone good for Mexico's sake to save the country from the threat of another PRI victory in 2017?  

[ag]

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

Well, JVM comes third, whereas Calderon won, so this is the obvious swing. AMLO may even repeat his 2006 percentage, and may do better in some of his old strongholds. The interesting thing is the Northeast, but you have to look at the senate/hose elections. Back in 2006 and, especially, in 2009 PRI was superstrong there: PAN is on the upswing locally, despite the general fiasco.

[ModerateCoward]

I have a few friends from Jalisco, maybe I should ask them what they think about PRI.

[ag]

What seems to be really bad news for PAN (besides Jalisco), is Baja California (Norte): really bad there for a party that has continuously governed the state since 1989. They have state elections there in just over a year - they'd better figure out what's gone wrong, or PRI will add this state to its crown.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

Well, JVM comes third, whereas Calderon won, so this is the obvious swing. AMLO may even repeat his 2006 percentage, and may do better in some of his old strongholds. The interesting thing is the Northeast, but you have to look at the senate/hose elections. Back in 2006 and, especially, in 2009 PRI was superstrong there: PAN is on the upswing locally, despite the general fiasco.

Also Vazquez Mota seems to be taking Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. Everything else...

They have state elections there in just over a year - they'd better figure out what's gone wrong, or PRI will add this state to its crown.

Basically this

[Governor NVGonzalez]

I have a few friends from Jalisco, maybe I should ask them what they think about PRI.

I grew up in Jalisco (though I was born NV) I'm stunned this is happening there considering how solid Jalisco *was for PAN*. What do I think of it? I'll just say I'm nervous.

*edit Sorry I was double tasking

[ag]

One of the two precincts on my block (my wife's) has reported. Reliably PANista, even at the dark hour

Total number registered 467 voters
Turnout 358 (76.65%)
JVM 148
EPN 110 votes
AMLO 92 votes
Quadri 6 votes
write-in 0 vote
invalid 2 votes

actually, have to update: somehow the results changed in a few minutes, must have been an erroneous entry. still panista, but less resoundingly so.

2nd update: I originally confused the presidential results w/ the senate, originally, PANd did get over 50% for the senate, but JVM is substantially behind her party even here.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

Pena Nieto seems to have won this by less than I expected him too in fact his advantage is in single digits. PRD kept most of their ground and can figure out how to expand that. PAN is a completely different story. They only kept 3 states out of their Northern territory for now. Ouch

[ThePrezMex]

IFE just announced the results of their quick count. Half hour earlier than expected.The results are:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto between 37.93 and 38.95%
PRD - López Obrador      between 30.90 and 31.86%
PAN - Vázquez Mota       between 25.10 and 26.03%
PANAL - Gabriel Quadri   between  2.27 and 2.57%

And President Calderon is just speaking live right now, congratulating Peña Nieto.

[ag]

Pena Nieto seems to have won this by less than I expected him too in fact his advantage is in single digits. PRD kept most of their ground and can figure out how to expand that. PAN is a completely different story. They only kept 3 states out of their Northern territory for now. Ouch

Keep in mind: much of that "Northern territory" was, really, PRI-land that Calderon "borrowed".  It is deceiving to look at 2006 presidential vote: PRI had given up on its candidate (Madrazo) early on. Lower-level races are much more indicative. Tamaulipas, Durango, Coahuila have never been governed by anybody but PRI, and Nuevo Leon and Chihuahua had returned to PRI fold after fairly short-lived PANista governments. The real shock is Jalisco and, possibly, Baja California (but that may be based on too few returns).

EPN lead is going to grow, most likely, if the exit polls are to be believed. The rural areas normally come in strongly for Mexico's GOP, eventually.

[ag]

IFE just announced the results of their quick count. Half hour earlier than expected.The results are:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto between 37.93 and 38.95%
PRD - López Obrador      between 30.90 and 31.86%
PAN - Vázquez Mota       between 25.10 and 26.03%
PANAL - Gabriel Quadri   between  2.27 and 2.57%

And President Calderon is just speaking live right now, congratulating Peña Nieto.

Well, whatever I may think of Pena Nieto, but this is the second democratic transition in Mexico, and that's, most definitely, a good thing. Congratulations to our new president.